A Robot in Every Home 英译汉

A Robot in Every Home

The leader of the PC revolution predicts that the next hot field will be robotics

Imagine

being

present

at

the

birth

of

a

new

industry.

It

is

an

industry

based

on

groundbreaking

new

technologies,

wherein a handful of well-established corporations sell highly specialized devices for business use and a fast-growing

number of start-up companies produce innovative toys, gadgets for hobbyists and other interesting niche products. But

it is also a highly fragmented industry with few common standards or platforms. Projects are complex, progress is slow,

and

practical

applications

are

relatively

rare.

In

fact,

for

all

the

excitement

and

promise,

no

one

can

say

with

any

certainty when--or even if--this industry will achieve critical mass. If it does, though, it may well change the world.

Of course, the paragraph above could be a description of the computer industry during the mid-1970s, around the time

that

Paul

Allen

and

I

launched

Microsoft.

Back

then,

big,

expensive

mainframe

computers

ran

the

back-office

operations for major companies, governmental departments and other institutions. Researchers at leading universities

and industrial laboratories were creating the basic building blocks that would make the information age possible. Intel

had just introduced the 8080 microprocessor, and Atari was selling the popular electronic game Pong. At homegrown

computer clubs, enthusiasts struggled to figure out exactly what this new technology was good for.

But what I really have in mind is something much more contemporary: the emergence of the robotics industry, which is

developing in much the same way that the computer business did 30 years ago. Think of the manufacturing robots

currently

used

on

automobile

assembly

lines

as

the

equivalent

of

yesterday's

mainframes.

The

industry's

niche

products include robotic arms that perform surgery, surveillance robots deployed in Iraq and Afghanistan that dispose

of roadside bombs, and domestic robots that vacuum the floor. Electronics companies have made robotic toys that can

imitate people or dogs or dinosaurs, and hobbyists are anxious to get their hands on the latest version of the Lego

robotics system.

Meanwhile

some

of

the

world's

best

minds

are

trying

to

solve

the

toughest

problems

of

robotics,

such

as

visual

recognition, navigation and machine learning. And they are succeeding. At the 2004 Defense Advanced Research

Projects Agency (DARPA) Grand Challenge, a competition to produce the first robotic vehicle capable of navigating

autonomously over a rugged 142-mile course through the Mojave Desert, the top competitor managed to travel just

7.4 miles before breaking down. In 2005, though, five vehicles covered the complete distance, and the race's winner

did it at an average speed of 19.1 miles an hour. (In another intriguing parallel between the robotics and computer

industries, DARPA also funded the work that led to the creation of Arpanet, the precursor to the Internet.)

What is more, the challenges facing the robotics industry are similar to those we tackled in computing three decades

ago. Robotics companies have no standard operating software that could allow popular application programs to run in

a

variety

of

devices.

The

standardization

of

robotic

processors

and

other

hardware

is

limited,

and very

little

of

the

programming code used in one machine can be applied to another. Whenever somebody wants to build a new robot,

they usually have to start from square one.

Despite

these

difficulties,

when

I

talk

to

people

involved

in

robotics--from

university

researchers

to

entrepreneurs,

hobbyists and high school students--the level of excitement and expectation reminds me so much of that time when

Paul Allen and I looked at the convergence of new technologies and dreamed of the day when a computer would be

on every desk and in every home. And as I look at the trends that are now starting to converge, I can envision a future

in which robotic devices will become a nearly ubiquitous part of our day-to-day lives. I believe that technologies such

as distributed computing, voice and visual recognition, and wireless broadband connectivity will open the door to a

new generation of autonomous devices that enable computers to perform tasks in the physical world on our behalf.

We may be on the verge of a new era, when the PC will get up off the desktop and allow us to see, hear, touch and

manipulate objects in places where we are not physically present.

From Science Fiction to Reality

The word

wright Karel Capek, but people have envisioned creating

robotlike

devices

for

thousands

of

years.

In

Greek

and

Roman mythology,

the

gods

of metalwork

built mechanical

servants made from gold. In the first century A.D., Heron of Alexandria--the great engineer credited with inventing the

first steam engine--designed intriguing automatons, including one said to have the ability to talk. Leonardo da Vinci's

1495 sketch of a mechanical knight, which could sit up and move its arms and legs, is considered to be the first plan

for a humanoid robot.

Over the past century, anthropomorphic machines have become familiar figures in popular culture through books such

as Isaac Asimov's I, Robot, movies such as Star Wars and television shows such as Star Trek. The popularity of robots

in fiction indicates that people are receptive to the idea that these machines will one day walk among us as helpers

and

even

as

companions.

Nevertheless,

although

robots

play

a

vital

role

in

industries

such

as

automobile

manufacturing--where there is about one robot for every 10 workers--the fact is that we have a long way to go before

real robots catch up with their science-fiction counterparts.

One reason for this gap is that it has been much harder than expected to enable computers and robots to sense their

surrounding

environment

and

to

react

quickly

and

accurately.

It

has

proved

extremely

difficult

to

give

robots

the

capabilities that humans take for granted--for example, the abilities to orient themselves with respect to the objects in a

room, to respond to sounds and interpret speech, and to grasp objects of varying sizes, textures and fragility. Even

something as simple as telling the difference between an open door and a window can be devilishly tricky for a robot.

But

researchers

are

starting

to

find

the

answers.

One

trend

that

has

helped

them

is

the

increasing

availability

of

tremendous amounts of computer power. One megahertz of processing power, which cost more than $$7,000 in 1970,

can now be purchased for just pennies. The price of a megabit of storage has seen a similar decline. The access to

cheap

computing

power

has

permitted

scientists

to

work

on

many

of

the

hard

problems

that

are

fundamental

to

making robots practical. Today, for example, voice-recognition programs can identify words quite well, but a far greater

challenge will be building machines that can understand what those words mean in context. As computing capacity

continues

to

expand,

robot

designers

will

have

the

processing

power

they

need

to

tackle

issues

of

ever

greater

complexity.

Another barrier to the development of robots has been the high cost of hardware, such as sensors that enable a robot

to determine the distance to an object as well as motors and servos that allow the robot to manipulate an object with

both strength

and

delicacy. But

prices

are

dropping fast.

Laser

range

finders

that

are

used

in

robotics

to measure

distance with precision cost about $$10,000 a few years ago; today they can be purchased for about $$2,000. And new,

more accurate sensors based on ultrawideband radar are available for even less.

Now

robot

builders

can

also

add

Global

Positioning

System

chips,

video

cameras,

array

microphones

(which

are

better

than

conventional

microphones

at

distinguishing

a

voice

from

background

noise)

and

a

host

of

additional

sensors for a reasonable expense. The resulting enhancement of capabilities, combined with expanded processing

power

and

storage,

allows

today's

robots

to

do

things

such

as

vacuum

a

room

or

help

to

defuse

a

roadside

bomb--tasks that would have been impossible for commercially produced machines just a few years ago.

机器人每家

可以想象在场诞生了一个新产业

.

它是一个行业

,

基于突破性的新技术

,

其 中极少数建立了良好的公司卖给高度专业化的设

备用于商业用途

,

并建立了快速

,

越来越多的创业公司 制作创新玩具

,

电子产品

,

.

但它也是

一个高度分散的行业

,

与一些共同的标准或平 台

.

项目是复杂的

,

< br>进展是缓慢的

,

和实际应用都比较少见

< br>.

事实上

,

所有的兴奋

,

并承诺

,

没有人能有 把握地说

,

时

--

或者

,

即使

--

< br>这个行业将达到临界质量

.

如果它

,

虽然它很可能改变世界

.

当然

,

上文可以说明电脑业在

70

年代中期左右

,

当时保 罗艾伦和我发起了微软公司

.

那时

,< /p>

大的

,

昂贵的电脑主机然回办公室

业务

,

为各大企业

,

政府部门和其他机构

.

研究人员在著名 大学和工业实验室创造基本积木将使信息时代可能的

.

英特尔公

司刚刚推出了

8080

微处理器

,

和

atari 315.40-317.5 0

流行的电子游戏

,

乒乓球