-
Presenting a Speech
如何发表演说
Of all
human creations, language may be the most
remarkable. Through language we share
experiences, formulate values, exchange
ideas, transmit knowledge, and sustain culture.
Indeed,
language
is
vital
to
thinking
itself.
Contrary
to
popular
belief,
language
does
not
simply
mirror
reality but also
helps to create our sense of reality by giving
meaning to events.
在人类创造的万物中,语言可能是最卓越的一
项创造。通过语言,我们可以分享经验、
阐明价值观念、交流思想、传播知识、传承文化
。确实,语言对于思想本身至关重要。和流
行的信仰不同的是:
语言并不是简单地反映事实,
而是通过对事件意义的思考来帮助人们感
< br>悟现实。
Good speakers have
respect for language and know how it works. Words
are the tools of a
speaker
’
s craft.
They have special uses, just like the tools of any
other profession. As a speaker,
you
should be aware of the meanings of words and know
how to use language accurately, clearly,
vividly, and appropriately.
优秀的演说者尊重语言并懂得如何驾驭语言。
语言是演说者展示才能的工具,
对于他们
来说,如同其他职业的工具一样
,
语言也有特殊的功用。作为一名演说者,你应该意识到话
语的意义,并
懂得如何准确无误地使用语言,使其表达清楚,趣味横生,恰如其分。
Using
language
accurately
is
as
vital
to
a
speaker
as
using
numbers
accurately
is
to
an
accountant. Never use a word unless you
are sure of its meaning. If you are not sure, look
up the
word in a dictionary. As you
prepare your speeches, ask yourself constantly,
“
What do I really
want to say? What do I really
mean?
”
Choose words that are
precise and accurate.
如同数字对于会计的重要性一样,
p>
准确地使用语言对于演说者至关重要。
在没有确切知
道一个词语的意思之前,
千万不要盲目使用。
碰到没有
把握的词语,
一定要查词典追根究底。
当你准备演讲之前,一定
要不断地问自己:
“我究竟想说些什么?我究竟想表达什么样的意
思?”因此,对于一篇演讲稿的用词来说,必须准确无误。
Using language clearly allows listeners
to grasp your meaning immediately. You can ensure
this
by
using
familiar
words
that
are
known
to
the
average
person
and
require
no
specialized
background; by
choosing concrete words in preference to more
abstract ones, and by eliminating
消除
verbal
clutter
杂乱
.
如果语言表达
清楚无误,
听众就能很快抓住你的意思。
鉴于此,
演说者应该使用那些对
于大多数人来说非常熟悉的词语,
这些词语不需要任何专业背景就能够理解;
演说者应该使
用
那些表达具体而不是相对抽象的词语;并且千万不要乱堆砌辞藻,哗众取宠。
Using language vividly helps bring your
speech to life. One way to make your language more
vivid
is
through
imagery,
or
the
creation
of
word
pictures.
You
can
develop
imagery
by
using
concrete
language, simile, and metaphor. Simile is an
explicit comparison between things that are
essentially different yet have
something in common; it always contains the words
“
like
”
or
“
as.
”
Metaphor
is
an
implicit
comparison
between
things
that
are
different
yet
have
something
in
common; it does not contain the words
“
like
”
or
“
as.
”
准确生动地使用语言能够使你的演说贴近生活。
有一种方法可以
使你的语言更加生动形
象,
那就是通过展开联想或创造语言图示
。
通过使用表达具体的词语、
明喻或者暗喻等手法
可以展开想像。
明喻是对本质上不同却含有一些相同之处的事物进行明确的比
喻:
它们总是
包含“像??一样”或者“如同??一样”这样的
连词。暗喻是一种隐性的比喻,它能够把
两个形式不同但是有一些相通之处的事物联系在
一起,暗喻不包含
“像??一样”
或者
“如
同??一样”这样的连词。
Another way to make your speeches vivid
is by exploiting
利用;
开发
the rhythm of language.
Four
devices for creating rhythm are parallelism,
repetition, alliteration, and antithesis.
Parallelism
is the similar arrangement
of a pair or series of related words, phrases, or
sentences. Repetition is
the use of the
same word or set of words at the beginning or end
of successive
连续的
clauses
分句,短语
or
sentences. Alliteration comes from repeating the
initial consonant
辅音
sounds of
close or adjoining
words. Antithesis is
the juxtaposition
of contrasting ideas, usually in parallel
structure.
另一种让你的演说生动形象的方法是注
重语言的节奏感。
有四种修辞格可以让你的语言
富有节奏感:排
比、重复、头韵和对比。排比是将一组或一系列具有相似结构的词语、短语
或者句子排列
在一起;
重复是在一系列短句或者长句的开头或者结尾使用相同的一句话或者
一组词语;
头韵是指邻近或者相邻的几个句子中的首个词语的辅音字母相同
;
对比是将一些
意思相反的词语或句子并列在一起,通常使用排
比结构。
Using language
appropriately means adapting to the particular
occasion, audience, and topic
at
hand.
It
also
means
developing
your
own
language
style
instead
of
trying
to
copy
someone
1
else
’
s. If your
language is appropriate in all respects, your
speech is much more likely to succeed.
恰当地使用语言是指语言的运用要符合特定的场合、特定的观众和特定的主题。同时,
恰
当地使用语言还意味着演说者要有自己的语言风格,
而不是模仿他人的口吻。
如果演说者
的语言在各个方面都能够做到恰如其分,那么这篇演说成功的机
率就会大大提高。
Good
speeches
are
not
composed
of
hot
air
and
unfounded
assertions.
They
need
strong
supporting materials to bolster the
speaker
’
s point of view. In
fact, the skillful use of supporting
materials often makes the difference
between a good speech and a poor one. The three
basic types
of supporting materials are
examples, statistics and testimony.
优秀的
演说并不是空穴来风、
缺乏论据的决断。
演说者必须找到强有力
的论据来支持其
观点。实际上,熟练地使用论据经常是区别一篇优秀演说词和一篇空洞演
说词的关键所在。
一般来说,通常有三种论据材料:事例、统计数据和证词。
In
the course of a
speech
you may use brief examples
—
specific
instances referred to in
passing
—
and
sometimes
you
may
want
to
give
several
brief
examples
in
a
row
to
create
a
stronger impression.
Extended examples
—
often called illustrations, narratives,
or anecdotes
—
are
longer
and
more
detailed.
Hypothetical
examples
describe
imaginary
situations
and
can
be
quite
effective for relating ideas to the audience. All
three kinds of examples help to clarify ideas,
to reinforce ideas, or to personalize
ideas. To be more effective, though, they should
be vivid and
richly textured.
在演说过程中,
< br>你可以使用一些简明扼要的例子——即附带地提及几个具体的例子——
有时候,<
/p>
你可以罗列好几个简明的例子,
借此增强听众的印象。
扩展性的例子——也叫例证、
叙述或者奇闻轶事——通常长一些,
但更具体。
假设的例子描述想像中的情形,
这种
例子能
够将相关的想法有效地传达给听众。
这三种例子都能够帮
助演说者理清思绪、
加强印象或者
使演说更加娓娓动听。为了使
表达更加富有效果,例子应该生动活泼,丰富多彩。
Statistics
can
be
extremely
helpful
in
conveying
your
message,
as
long
as
you
use
them
sparingly
节约地
and
explain
them
so
they
are
meaningful
to
your
audience.
Above
all,
you
should
understand
your
statistics
and
use
them
fairly.
Numbers
can
easily
be
manipulated
and
distorted. Make sure that your figures
are representative of what they claim to measure,
that you
use statistical measures
correctly, and that you take statistics only from
reliable sources.
只要演说者对于统计数据用之得当并且加以解释
,这些数据将有助于有效地传达信息,
听众也能从统计数据中获益匪浅。
最重要的是:
演说者应该对统计数据了如指掌,
并且运
用
得恰如其分。由于数据很容易操纵和捏造,因此,
对于演说者
来说,一定要确保图表没有张
冠李戴,并且要确保统计方法正确,数据来源可靠。
Testimony is especially
helpful for student speakers, because they are
seldom recognized as
experts on their
speech topics. Citing the views of people who are
experts is a good way to make
your
ideas more credible. When you include testimony in
a speech, you can either quote someone
verbatim
逐字
or paraphrase
释义
their words. As with statistics, there
are guidelines for using
testimony.
Be
sure to quote or paraphrase accurately and to cite
qualified unbiased sources. If
the
source is not generally known to your audience, be
certain to establish his or her credentials.
证词对于那些学生演说者来说特别重要,
因为他们都不是演讲主题方面的专
家,
所以引
用那些权威的观点对于增加演说者观点的可信度来说
是一种好方法。
演说者在演讲中引用证
词,可以一字不差地引用
别人的话,
或者对他们的话进行解释说明。和统计数据一样,
证
词
的使用也需要遵循一定的程式。
例如,
一定要确保引用或者解释别人的话准确无误,
并且确
保引文来
源可靠公正。如果听众对你的引文不太熟悉,请一定要确立引文作者的可信度。
The impact of a speech is strongly
affected by how the speech is delivered. You
cannot make
a good speech without
having something to say. But having something to
say is not enough. You
must
also
know
how
to
say
it.
Good
delivery
does
not
call
attention
to
itself.
It
conveys
the
speaker
’
s ideas
clearly, interestingly, and without distracting
the audience.
演说的方式也会极大影响其质量。
如果一篇演说言之无物当然无人喝彩,
但是只有内容
是远远不
够的,
你还必须懂得如何演说。
良好的演说方式虽然不能增添更
多的信息量,
但是
它能够帮助演说者清晰地表达思想,使演说妙
趣横生,让观众全神贯注。
There
are
four
basic
methods
of
delivering
a
speech:
reading
verbatim
from
a
manuscript,
reciting
a
memorized
text,
speaking
with
PowerPoint,
and
speaking
extemporaneously,
or
impromptu. The last of
these
-
speaking
extemporaneously
-
is the method you probably will
use
for
classroom
speeches
and
for
most
speeches
outside
the
classroom.
When
speaking
extemporaneously,
you
will
have
only
a
brief
set
of
notes
or
a
speaking
outline.
Speaking
with
PowerPoint is widely used now and very
effective indeed.
演说的表达方式基本上有四种:
通读手稿中的段落、
复述背诵过的一段文章、
幻灯片辅
助的演说以及即兴发挥或即席演说。
最后一种方法在课堂讲座经
常会用到,
大部分课外讲座
2
p>
也会采用这种即席演说的方式。
当你即席演说时,
< br>你只需要准备一小段简短的提要或者一个
演讲大纲即可。幻灯片辅助演说的方式现
在运用得很广泛,事实证明这种方式也非常有效。
Certainly
there
are
other
factors
you
should
consider,
such
as
personal
appearance,
bodily
action,
gestures, eye
contact,
volume,
pauses
and
so on.
By
paying
enough
attention
to
what
is
mentioned above, you may
present an effective speech.
当然,还有其他的因素
你需要考虑,如个人的外表、肢体语、手势、目光接触、讲话的
声调、停顿等。总之,如
果你能够留心上述的方法,相信你的演讲一定会妙语连珠,赢得满
堂喝彩。
3
Energy
in Transition
能源转型
The era of cheap and convenient sources
of energy is coming to an end. A transition to
more
expensive but less polluting
sources must now be managed.
能源资源价格低廉、<
/p>
使用便捷的时代已经过去了,
目前应向尽管价格较高、
但污染较小
的资源转变。
John P
. Holdren
Understanding this transition requires
a look at the two-sided connection between energy
and
human
well-being.
Energy
contributes
positively
to
well-being
by
providing
such
consumer
services as heating
and lighting as well as serving as a necessary
input to economic production.
But the costs
of energy - including not only the money and other
resources devoted to obtaining
and
exploiting it but also environmental and
sociopolitical impacts - detract from well-being.
要了解这一转变,
首先需要考察一下能源和人类幸福的双重关系
。
能源为人类提供了诸
如取暖、照明等消费服务的同时,也为经
济生产活动提供必要投入,从这个意义上讲,
能源
为人类幸福做
出了积极贡献。
然而,
人类为利用能源所付出的代价却削弱了能
源为其带来的
利益,
这种代价不仅包括为获取和利用能源所投入
的资金和其他资源,
而且包含了能源开发
和利用所产生的环境影
响和社会政治影响。
For most of human
history, the dominant concerns about energy have
centered on the benefit
side of the
energy - well-being equation. Inadequacy of energy
resources or (more often) of the
technologies
and
organizations
for
harvesting,
converting,
and
distributing
those
resources
has
meant
insufficient
energy
benefits
and
hence
inconvenience,
deprivation
and
constraints
on
growth. The 1970’s, then, represented a
turning point. After decades of constancy
or decline in
monetary costs
- and of relegation of environmental and
sociopolitical costs to secondary status -
energy was seen to be getting costlier
in all respects. It began to be plausible that
excessive energy
costs could pose
threats on a par with those of insufficient
supply. It also became possible to think
that expanding some forms of energy
supply could create costs exceeding the benefits.
人类历史发展长河中,
人们主要关心的是能源和人类安康等式中
有利的一面。
能源资源
不足或者(更经常)
开采、
加工和分配这些资源所需技术和机构的不足,
会影响
能源为人类
带来的利益,
对人类也就意味着不方便、
损失以及对增长的各种限制。
到了
20
世纪
70
年代,
出现了一
个转折点。
此前的几十年中,
能源的资金成本一直保持稳定,<
/p>
甚至有所下降,
而且,
其所牵扯的环境成
本和社会政治成本一直处于次要地位。
但是
20
世纪
70
年代开始,
开发和<
/p>
利用能源的多方成本均显著增长。
人们自然有理由认为:
高昂的能源成本所带来的威胁已同
能源供应不足所产生的威胁不相上下。
同时,
也有人担心,
依靠扩大能源资源
增加供应所需
付出的代价,也许大于其所带来的利益。
The
crucial
question
at
the
beginning
of
the
1990’s
is
whether
the
trend
that
began
in
the
1970’s will prove
to be
temporary or permanent. Is the era of cheap energy
really over, or will a
combination of
new resources, new technology and changing
geopolitics bring it back? One key
determinant of the answer is the
staggering scale of energy demand brought forth by
100 years of
unprecedented
population
growth,
coupled
with
an
equally
remarkable
growth
in
per
capita
demand of industrial
energy forms. It entailed the use of dirty coal as
well as clean; undersea oil as
well as
terrestrial; deep gas as well as shallow; mediocre
hydroelectric sites as well as good ones;
and deforestation as well as
sustainable fuel wood harvesting.
20
世纪
90
年代初期人们关注的焦点在于,这种
始于
70
年代的能源发展趋势是暂时的
还是长远的。廉价能源时代是真正一去不复返,还是通过开发新能源、
应用新技术、改革
地
缘政治秩序等措施,
有可能重登历史舞台?回答这个问题的一
个关键因素是过去
100
年以来
因人口
空前增长带来的令人瞠目的能源需求以及同样使人无所应对的人均工业能源需求。
急
p>
剧增长的能源需求使得人类对能源的使用无所不用其极:
不管是清洁
煤炭还是劣质煤炭
(或
“无铅煤还是有铅煤”
< br>)
,
见煤就挖;
无论是陆上石油
还是海底石油,深层气还是浅层气,见
油气就采;
水电站建设不
论适宜与否,见水就上;
一边绿化造林以求薪材可持续发展,
一
边
却砍树毁林。
Except
for
the
huge
pool
of
oil
underlying
the
Middle
East,
the
cheapest
oil
and
gas
are
already
gone. Even if a few more giant oil fields are
discovered, they will make little difference
against
consumption
on
today’s
scale.
Oil
and
gas
will
have
to
come
increasingly,
for
most
countries, from deeper in the earth and
from imports whose reliability and affordability
cannot be
guaranteed.
除了中东地
区蕴藏着巨大的石油资源,
地球上廉价的油气资源已经不复存在了。
即使偶
尔找到几个大的油田,同当今巨大的能源消耗相比,也是杯水车薪。对于大多
数国家来说,
油气资源越来越多地依赖进口,
且不说进口油气资
源的可靠性无法得到保障,
其对进口国的
4
支付能力也是一个考验。
There are a variety of other energy
resources that are more abundant than oil and gas.
Coal,
solar
energy,
and
fission
and
fusion
fuels
are
the
most
important
ones.
But
they
all
require
elaborate and
expensive transformation into electricity
or liquid fuels in order to
meet society’s
needs.
None
has
very
good
prospects
for
delivering
large
quantities
of
electricity
at
costs
comparable to those of
the cheap coal-
fired and hydropower
plants of the 1960’s. It appears, then,
that
expensive
energy
is
a
permanent
condition,
even
without
allowing
for
its
environmental
costs.
诚然,
其他许多资源的储量大于石油和天然气,最重要的有煤、太阳能、聚变
裂变燃料
等。但是这些能源转化成电力或液体燃料,以满足社会需求,
< br>需要经过技术复杂、
成本昂贵
的转化过程。同
20
世纪
60
年代成本
低廉的燃煤火电站和水力发电站相比,仅从成本考虑,
以上各种资源用于大规模发电的可
能性极小。
因此,
即使不考虑能源开采的环境成本,
能源
价格居高不下已成无可改变的定局。
The
capacity
of
the
environment
to
absorb
the
effluents
and
other
impacts
of
energy
technologies
is
itself
a
finite
resource.
The
finitude
is
manifested
in
two
basic
types
of
environmental costs. External costs are
those imposed by environmental disruptions on
society but
not reflected in the
monetary accounts of the buyers and sellers of the
energy. “Internalized costs”
are
increases in monetary costs imposed by measures,
such as pollution-control devices, aimed at
reducing the external costs.
环境吸纳由于能源利用而产生的废弃物和其他影响的能力本身也是有限度的,
表现在两
方面的环境成本上。
所谓
“外延成本”
即由于环境遭到破坏对社会造成的影响,但尚未反映
到能源买卖双方的交易价格上;
p>
所谓
“内涵成本”即为降低外延成本而采取的各种措施(如
污染防治措施)所引起的货币成本的增长。
Both types of environmental costs have been rising
for several reasons. First, the declining
quality of fuel deposits and energy-
conversion sites to which society must now turn
means more
material must be moved or
processed, bigger facilities must be constructed
and longer distances
must
be
traversed.
Second,
the
growing
magnitude
of
effluents
from
energy
systems
has
led
to
saturation
of
the
environment’s
capacity
to
absorb
such
effluents
without
disruption.
Third,
the
monetary costs of
controlling pollution tend to increase with the
percentage of pollutants removed.
两种环境成
本均一直呈增长趋势,
原因是多方面的。
首先,
社会发展所依赖的燃料矿藏
和加工地质量下降,
必然要
求矿物运输和加工的数量增加、
设施扩大、
运输距离延长。
p>
第二,
能源利用所产生的废弃物不断增加,
使得环境自我净化能力达到了极限。
第三,
污染防治所
需的资金成本亦将随着消除污染物比例的提高而提高。
Despite
these
expenditures,
the
remaining
uninternalized
environmental
costs
have
been
substantial
and
in
many
cases
are
growing.
Those
of
greatest
concern
are
the
risk
of
death
or
disease as a result of
emissions or accidents at energy facilities and
the impact of energy supplied
on the
global ecosystem and on international relations. <
/p>
尽管代价高昂,
尚未内化的环境成本一直居高不下,
并在许多情形下呈增长趋势,
其中
最引人关注的是由
能源设施排放废物或发生事故所带来的死亡和疾病,
以及由于能源供应对
全球生态系统和国际关系造成的影响。
The
impacts of energy technologies on public health
and safety are difficult to pin down with
much confidence. In the case of air
pollution from fossil fuels, in which the dominant
threat to
public health is thought to
be particulates formed from sulfur dioxide
emissions, a consensus on
the number of
deaths caused by exposure has proved impossible.
Widely differing estimates result
from
different assumptions about fuel compositions, air
pollution control technology, power-plant
sitting in relation to population
distribution, meteorological conditions affecting
sulfate formation,
and, above all, the
relation between sulfate concentrations and
disease.
能源技术对于大众健康和安全所造成的影响难以确定。以矿物燃料造
成的空气污染为
例,
一般认为其对大众健康的主要危害是由排放
的二氧化硫形成的微粒,
但接触这种污染空
气究竟会导致多少人
死亡,
却无法取得一致意见。
各种估算数据千差万别,
原因在于对以下
各种因素的分析各不相同,
比如
燃料构成、
空气污染防治技术、
发电厂选址同人口分布之间
p>
的关系、气象条件对硫化物形成的影响,最重要的是硫化物浓度与疾病之间的关系。
Large uncertainties also apply
to the health and safety impacts of nuclear
fission. In this case,
differing
estimates
result
in
part
from
differences
among
sites
and
reactor
types,
in
part
from
uncertainties about
emissions from fuel-cycle steps that
are not
yet fully
operational
(especially
fuel
reprocessing
and
management
of
uranium-mill
tailings)
and
in
part
from
different
assumptions
about
the
effects
of
exposure
to
low-
dose
radiation.
The
biggest
uncertainties,
however, relate to the probabilities
and consequences of large accidents at reactors,
at reprocessing
5
plants and in the transport of wastes.
同样,
核反应堆对于大众健康和安全的影响亦无法确定。
对此影响的各种估测,
既有来
自关于反应堆选
址和类型的不同观点,又有因为核燃料反应过程
(
尤其是核燃料
回收以及铀
选矿尾矿管理
)
还不完备,
这些环节所产生的废弃物究竟会产生何种影响尚无法确定;同时
还有因为对于人类接触少
量核辐射所造成的后果各执己见。
然而,
最大的不确定性来自核
反
应堆、重新加工工厂以及核废料运输过程中可能发生重大事故的概率及所造成的后果。
Altogether,
the
ranges
of
estimated
hazards
to
public
health
from
both
coal-
fired
and
nuclear-power
plants are so wide as to extend from negligible to
substantial in comparison with
other
risks
to
the
population.
There
is
little
basis,
in
these
ranges,
for
preferring
one
of
these
energy
sources
over
the
other.
For
both,
the
very
size
of
the
uncertainty
is
itself
a
significant
liability.
同人类面临的其他威胁相比,
火电厂和核电厂危害大众健康的程度究竟有多
大,
众说纷
纭,莫衷一是。
有的人认为
这种影响微不足道,可以忽略不计;也有人认为这种影响程度严
重、危害巨大。无论影响
大小,都没有理由对种种能源亲此疏彼。无论是核电还是火电,其
对人类的危害都无法确
定,这本身就是一大憾事。
Often
neglected,
but
no
less
important,
is
the
public
health
menace
from
traditional
fuels
widely used for
cooking and water heating in the developing world.
Perhaps 80 percent of global
exposure
to particulate air pollution occurs indoors in
developing countries, where the smoke from
primitive stoves is heavily
laden with dangerous hydrocarbons. A
disproportionate share of this
burden
is borne, moreover, by women (who do the cooking)
and small children (who indoors with
their mothers).
发展中国家普遍用于做饭烧
水的传统燃料对大众健康造成的危害常常不为人们所关注,
但同样十分严重。全球大约<
/p>
80%
的颗粒空气污染来自发展中国家的室内烧煮,原始炉灶排<
/p>
出的烟气中含有大量有害的烃
(或碳氢化合物)
< br>,
而且这种有害物质的受害者往往是妇女
(室
内烧煮的主要承担者)和儿童(长时间同母亲一起呆在室内)
。
The ecological threats posed by
energy supply are even harder to quantify than the
threats to
human health and safety from
effluents and accidents. Nevertheless, enough is
known to suggest
they
portend
even
larger
damage
to
human
well-being.
This
damage
potential
arises
from
the
combination of two circumstances.
同排放的废弃物和能源设施事故对大众健康造成的危害相比,
能源利用对生
态系统的威
胁更难以量化。
然而,
根据
已有认识足以判断这种威胁对人类健康造成的损失将会更大。
这
种潜在的损失是由两种情形同时存在导致的
First,
civilization
depends
heavily
on
services
provided
by
ecological
and
geophysical
processes
such
as
building
and
fertilizing
soil,
regulating
water
supply,
controlling
pests
and
pathogens,
and
maintaining
a
tolerable
climate;
yet
it
lacks
the knowledge
and
the resources
to
replace
nature’s
services
with
technology.
Second,
human
activities
are
now
clearly
capable
of
disrupting globally the processes that
provide these services. Energy supply, both
industrial and
traditional, is
responsible for a striking share of the
environmental impacts of human activity. The
environmental
transition
of
the
past
100
years
-
driven
above
all
by
a
20-fold
increase
in
fossil-fuel
use
and
augmented
by
a
tripling
in
the
use
of
traditional
energy
forms
-
has
amounted
to
no
less
than
the
emergence
of
civilization
as
a
global
ecological
and
geochemical
force.
首先,
人类文明严重依
赖于各种生态和地球物理过程所提供的各种服务,
诸如造土培肥
(或土壤的形成与增肥)
、水源调节、病虫害控制、适宜气候的维持等等。但是,人类缺
乏
知识和资源来利用技术代替自然界所提供的各种服务。
其次,
人类活动显然能够在全球范围
破坏提供这些服务的进程。
无论是工业能源还是传统能源使用,
在人类活动引起的环境问题
中均占有很大比重。过去
100
年以来的环境
巨变(首要驱动因素是化石燃料的使用增长了
20
倍,同时传统
能源的使用增长了
3
倍)
,可以说无异
于人类文明作为一支全球范围内的生
态和地球化学力量的崛起过程。
Of
all
environmental
problems,
the
most
threatening,
and
in
many
respects
the
most
intractable, is global climate change.
And the greenhouse gases most responsible for the
danger of
rapid climate change come
largely from human endeavors too massive,
widespread and central to
the
functioning of our societies to be easily altered:
carbon dioxide (CO2) from deforestation and
the combustion of fossil fuels; methane
from rice paddies, cattle gusts and the
exploitation of oil
and natural gas;
and nitrous oxides from fuel combustions and
fertilizer use.
在诸多环境问题中,
对人类
威胁最大、
在许多情况下却又最让人类无计可施的是全球气
候变
化。
而对气候剧变最起作用的温室气体主要来自人类活动,
这些
活动规模之大、
范围之
广、对人类社会运转作用之大,
都无法轻易改变。
这些气体包括:
由于毁林和燃
烧矿物燃料
6
所造成的二氧化碳,
由秸秆、
牲畜粪便和使用石油天然气所排放的甲烷,
以及由于燃料燃烧
和施肥所排放的一氧化二氮。
The
only
other
external
cost
that
might
match
the
devastating
impact
of
global
climate
change is the risk
of causing or aggravating large-scale military
conflict. One such threat is the
potential
for
conflict
over
access
to
petroleum
resources.
Another
threat
is
the
link
between
nuclear
energy
and
the
spread
of
nuclear
weapons.
The
issue
is
hardly
less
complex
and
controversial
than
the
link
between
CO2
and
climate;
many
analysts,
including
me,
think
it
is
threatening indeed.
其他唯一能同全球
气候变化所造成的灾难性影响相提并论的外化成本是发生或恶化大
规模军事冲突的可能。
其中潜在的威胁是为争夺石油资源而引起的冲突。
另一个威胁则
来自
核能和核武器扩散之间的联系,这种联系的复杂性几乎不亚于二氧化碳和气候之间的
关系。
许多分析家(包括本人)均认为这种关系十分危险
7
Do Traffic Tickets Save Lives?
交通罚单能救命吗?
Stdudy
Shows Traffic Tickets
Could Save
Drivers’ Lives
研究显示交通罚单能救司机的命
Pity
the poor traffic cop.
He's the
last guy
you want
to see in
your rear-view
mirror when
you're
speeding
down
the
highway.
Why
isn't
he
out
looking
for
murderers
instead
of
nailing
drivers for minor infractions of the
law?
哎,
这可怜的交警。
他是你
在高速公路上疾驰时最不愿意在后视镜里看见的人。
他为什
么不
去抓那些杀人犯,却在这儿为了一点儿芝麻大的交通违规对司机们穷追不舍?
Well, according to a major research
project by scientists in Canada and California
that cop
just might be saving your
life. Or the life of someone else.
然而
p>
,
根据加拿大和加利福尼亚科学家们的一项重要研究,那位警察也许
恰恰是在救你
的
命,或者救別的什么人的命。
The
researchers have found that a traffic ticket
reduces a driver's chance of being involved in
a fatal accident by a whopping 35
percent, at least for a few weeks. The effect
doesn't last long,
however. Within
three to four months, the lead foot is back on the
pedal and the risk of killing
yourself
or
someone
else
is
back
up
to
where
it
was
before
that
cop
stared
you
in
the
eye
and
wrote out that expensive
citation.
研究者们发现一张交通罚单能让司机至少在几周内遭遇重大车祸的
概率降低
35%
。似
是这个作用不会持
续很长。
三四个月后,
那只脚又会回到油门儿上去,
置自己或別人于死地
的危险率又和警察瞪着你开出巨额罚单前一样高了。<
/p>
The bottom line, according
to the research, published in the June 28 issue of
The Lancet, is
that traffic tickets
save lives. Maybe thousands of lives, every year.
Yet traffic laws are enforced
sporadically, almost as if by whim,
partly because people just don't like traffic
cops, and there are
lots of other
things for the government to spend money on than
enforcing highway safety laws.
根据
6
月
28
日发表在《柳叶刀》上的研究,
最根本的一点就是交通罚单能救命,
它很
可能每年能救成千上万条命。
然而交通法规只
是零星地被实施,
就像心血来潮似的,
部分原
< br>因是人们不喜欢罚单,而且除了实施髙速公路安全法,政府部门还有很多其他地方要花钱。
The Grim Statistics
无情的统计数椐
That
attitude needs to be changed, according to Donald
A. Redelmeier of the University of
Toronto and Robert J. Tibshirani of
Stanford University. Both men are medical
researchers, and
this isn't the first
time they've taken a hard look at highway safety.
Their 1998 study caused a stir
when
they linked cell phone usage to traffic accidents.
Now they're back, saying traffic tickets are
good for our health.
多伦多大学的热
德尔美尔和斯坦福大学的提波施拉尼认为这种态度需要改变。
他们俩都
< br>是医学研究者,这已不是他们第一次盯着高速公路安全问题了。他们俩
1998<
/p>
年的研究引起
了轰动,
当时他们认为打手
机与交通事故有关联。
现在他们又来了,
说交通罚单对我们的健
康有好处。
They
were
prodded
into
this
project
by
some
very
grim
statistics.
Each
year,
more
than
a
million persons die in
traffic accidents worldwide. If that many people
died of SARS in a year, the
public
response would probably border on hysteria, but we
have come to accept traffic fatalities as
a way of life.
他们之所以参与这个项目是受
到一些残酷无情的统计数据的驱使。每年,全世界有
100
多万
人死于交通事故。
如果一年内那么多人死于非典的话,
大家很可
能会恐惧得发疯了,
然
而我
们对交通亊故死亡率却习以为常了。
In addition, another 25 million people
around the world are permanently disabled by
traffic
accidents, and many of them
—
as well as the
fatalities
—
are
children.
另外,
还有
2
500
万人因交通事故永远残废了,
而且他们当中
(
包括死去的
)
很多是孩子
。
Taking It Easy After a
Ticket?
接到罚中处之泰然?
When Redelmeier and Tibshirani and
fellow researcher Leonard Evans set out to see if
traffic
tickets really do any good,
they found an enormous resource in the Canadian
province of Ontario.
The full driving
record of every licensed driver there was made
available to them, warts and all,
giving the researchers a huge data base
of more than 10 million licensed drivers, 8,975 of
whom
were involved in a fatal accident
during the 11-year period covered by the research,
from 1988
through 1998.
当热德尔美尔、提波施拉尼和他们的共同研究人员伦纳德
?
伊凡斯研究交通罚单是否真
8
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