计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

(

文档含英文原文和中文翻译

)

原文：

Schedule Risk Management

INTRODUCTION

Schedule risks are both threats and opportunities to the success of a project.

Threats

tend

to

reduce

the

success

of

meeting

the

project

goals

and

opportunities tend to increase the success. Risk management is the process of

identifying, analyzing, qualifying and quantifying the risks, and developing a

plan

to

deal

with

them.

This

is

routinely

done

during

baseline

schedule

development

as

well

as

during

schedule

updates.

Implementation

of

risk

.

.

1

计划 风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

management starts with early planning in both budgetary cost estimating and

preliminary

master

scheduling

in

order

to

determine

budgets

and

schedules

with a comfortable level of confidence in the completion date and final cost.

While there are entire volumes addressing risk in construction projects, it is

important to note that the issue of time-related risk has not been universally

incorporated

into

planning.

Assessing

cost

risk

is

more

intuitive,

and

very

often

addressed

through

the

use

of

heuristics,

so

it

has

become

more

of

a

standard of the industry than time-related risk management. Most estimators

will automatically add a contingency to

a cost estimate to cover the risk of performance based on the type of project

and

circumstances

pertaining

to

the

undertaking

of

the

project.

Estimators

estimate

this

contingency

using

their

own

rules

of

thumb

developed

over

years

of

estimating

as

well

as

estimate

ingmanuals

，

such

as

Means’

Cost

Data or Cost Works. However, when it comes to

developing

the

critical

path

method

(CPM)

schedules,

risk

management

is

often overlooked or underestimated.

The purpose of this chapter is to provide an overview of risk management

and the assessment process as well as best practices for incorporation of risk

management

into

CPM

schedule

development

and

maintenance.

For

more

detailed

information

about

schedule

risk,

the

reader

should

refer

to

risk

management books, particularly those that focus on project management. One

of the best resources available is David Hulett

’s

new book, Practical Schedule

.

.

2

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

Risk Analysis.

Any

risk

management

program

starts

with

a

good

and

accurate

CPM

schedule,

created

through

the

use

of

best

practices

and

checked

for

quality,

reasonableness,

and

appropriateness

of

the

network

model.

Without

a

well-designed

and

developed

CPM

baseline

schedule,

a

risk

management

process

will

not

be

effective.

The

risk

analysis

depends

upon

accurate

and

consistent

calculations

of

the

network

logic,

the

appropriateness

of

the

sequencing

and

phasing,

and

a

reasonable

approach

to

estimating

activity

durations.

Most CPM schedules are not adjusted for risk but rather are developed as

if there

were one right answer for the schedule’s numerical data. Generally,

activity

durations

are

established

by

calculation

of

the

quantity

of

work

represented

by

an

activity

divided

by

the

production

rate,

or

by

sheer

‘‘gut

feeling’’

of

the

project

manager

or

crew

leader.

This

production

rate

is

normally

established

by

the

contractor’s

historical

records

or

an

estimating

system,

such

as

Means’,

that

provides

an

accurate

data

base

of

average

production rates. Once those durations are calculated, they are often used as

deterministic

values,

which

assumes

that

the

durations

are

accurate

and

unlikely

to

change.

This

assumption

ignores

the

fact

that

the

schedule

is

attempting

to

predict

how

long

it

will

take

to

complete

an

activity

at

some

unknown time in the future,

using an unknown crew composition, with variable experience, and working

.

.

3

计划 风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

in

unknown

conditions.

Risk

management

recognizes

the

uncertainty

in

duration estimating and provides a system to brain storm other risks that may

occur during the project. Probability distributions are the best way to model

planned activity

durations, as noted by Hulett ‘‘The best way to understand

the

activity

durations

that

are

included

in

the

schedule

is

as

probabilistic

statements

of

possible

durations

rather

than

a

deterministic

statement

about

how long the future activity will take.’’

DEFINITION OF RISK TERMS

The Project Management Institute (PMI) defines project risk in its Project

Management

Body

of

Knowledge

(PMBOK)

as

‘‘an

uncertain

event

or

condition

that,

if

it

occurs,

has

a

positive

or

negative

effect

on

at

least

one

project objective, such as time, cost, scope, or quality. A risk may have one or

m

ore

causes

and,

if

it

occurs,

one

or

more

impacts.’’

PMBOK

adds

‘‘Risk

conditions

could

include

aspects

of

the

project’s

or

organization’s

environment

that

may

contribute

to

project

risk,

such

as

poor

project

management practices, or dependency on external participants who cannot be

controlled.’’

Risk Management: A process designed to examine uncertainties occurring

during

project

delivery

and

to

implement

actions

dealing

with

those

uncertainties

in

order

to

achieve

project

objectives

The

definition

of

risk

management in PMBOK, 4th Edition, is: ‘‘systematic

process of identifying,

analyzing, and responding to project risk.’’

.

.

4< /p>

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

Risk definition by AACEi Cost Engineering Terminology7 is: ‘‘the degree

of

dispersion

or

variability

around

the

expected

or

‘best’

val

ue,

which

is

estimated to

exist

for

the

economic

variable

in question,

e.g.,

a quantitative

measure of the upper and lower limits which are considered reasonable for the

factor being estimated.’’

Time

Contingency:

An

amount

of

time

added

to

the

base

estimated

duration to allow for unknown impacts to the project schedule, or to achieve a

certain level of confidence in the estimated duration.

Probability: A measure of the likelihood of occurrence of an event.

Risk

register:

A

checklist

of

potential

risks

developed

during

the

risk

identification phase of risk management.

Risk

allocation:

A

determination

of

how

to

respond

to

risks,

which

can

include

shifting

risk,

avoiding

risks,

preventing

or

eliminating

risks,

and

incorporating risks into the schedule.

Deterministic: A calculated approach to estimating single activity duration

using work quantity divided by estimated production rate.

Probabilistic:

The

determination

of

risk

likelihood

and

consequences

to

establish

duration

ranges

or

risk-adjusted

durations

that

can

be

used

in

a

schedule

in

recognition

that

there

are

no

certainties

in

estimating

future

durations.

Monte Carlo analysis: A probabilistic approach to determining confidence

levels of completion dates for a project schedule by calculating durations as

.

.

5< /p>

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

probability distributions.

Probability distribution: The spread of durations in a statistically significant

population that is used for the range of durations in probabilistic scheduling

approaches.

Confidence level: A measure of the statistical reliability of the prediction of

project completion.

What-if scenario: A modeling of a risk for use in a CPM schedule in order

to predict the ramifications of an identified risk.

Qualitative

analysis:

Occurring

on

the

project,

as

well

as

assessing

the

severity of that risk should it occur and prioritizing the resultant list of risks.

Quantitative

analysis:

The

assigning

of

a

probability

to

the

qualitative

description of the risk, ranking the risks, and calculating the potential impact

from

both

individual

risks

as

well

as

the

cumulative

effect

of

all

risks

identified.

Exculpatory clauses: Disclaimer verbiage that is designed to shift risk.

TYPES OF RISK IN CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS

Everything that has ever gone wrong on a construction project is a potential

risk

on

the

next

project.

Many

project

managers

instinctively

develop

a

lessons-learned

list

of

historical

risks

and

take

steps

to

minimize

their

exposure to those risks in the future.

Risks vary by industry and even by construction project type as well as by

personnel

involved

with

the

project.

A

roadway

or

bridge

project

has

a

.

.

6< /p>

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

different group of risks than a facility or building, and the selected contractors

may have different degrees of influence on the level of risks to performance.

If an owner attempts to save money in preconstruction services by limiting the

extent of field investigation or development of as-built data, there will be a

higher

risk

of

discovery

of

unknown

problems.

The

experience

and

competence of the architects and engineers handling the design of the project,

as well as their quality control in

development of working drawings, directly affect the construction effort and,

consequently, the risk associated with the plans and specifications.

Even if the owner has been proactive in preconstruction investigation, there is

always a risk of unforeseen conditions. This can be a function of the type of

soils

encountered,

the

local

municipality,

and

its

culture

and

history

of

keeping good records of obsolete utilities. If the city in which the project is to

be

built

has

a

history

of

requiring

contractors

to

remove

all

abandoned

underground lines, there is a much lower risk of underground conflicts.

The

selection

of

the

project

team

can

impact

positively

or

negatively

the

probability

of

successful

project

completion.

Design-bid-build

projects

that

use procurement philosophies allowing all financially capable contractors to

participate

will

likely

experience

a

much

higher

level

of

risk

to

on-time

performance

than

a

procurement

philosophy

that

requires

qualification

of

proposed contractors to ensure that they have the appropriate experience and

resources to construct the project. A single weak subcontractor on a project

.

.

7< /p>

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

will increase risk of performance and require more management than may be

anticipated.

If

this

is

not

considered,

everyone

will

be

surprised

when

that

subcontractor

fails

and

has

to

have

their

work

augmented

or

corrected.

Problems

related

to

the

management

and

possible

termination

of

a

failing

subcontractor usually has serious negative impacts on the project.

The reputation of the construction manager (CM) as well as the corporate

culture

will

affect

project

performance.

If

the

CM

defines

success

with

minimum

time

extensions

as the

only

benchmark,

there

will likely

be

more

conflict

and

a

higher

need

for

dispute

resolution

efforts.

In

addition,

the

management

abilities

of

the

CM

directly

affect

many

project

tasks,

such

as

review of shop drawings and response to requests for information in order to

resolve questions about the construction.

Work by outside or third parties can carry significant risks of influence on

the

project’s success. For example, a light rail station to be built on top of a

parking

garage

under

construction

by

a

different

contractor

will

run

an

increased risk of completion on time. The project has no control over

—

and

little

ability

to

influence

—

the

completion

of

the

parking

garage,

which

quickly becomes vital to completion of the light rail project.

Most

projects

are

affected

by

local

weather

conditions,

which,

when

adverse,

can

significantly

impede

progress.

Most

specifications

require

the

contractor

to

take

into

account

the

normal

local

weather

conditions

in

his

schedule planning, which includes normal adverse weather, but also allow for

.

.

8

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

time extensions when unusually adverse weather occurs. Best practices would

require the contractor to research the local historical weather records in order

to plan for three to five year average weather conditions. Different parts of the

country

and

the

world

have

a

wide

variance

in

weather

conditions,

so

planning or failure to plan for the risk of local weather can significantly affect

project success.

Local

political

situations,

especially

in

volatile

political

climates,

may

hamper

all

efforts

to

construct

a project efficiently.

Countries

with unstable

political

or

economical

systems

will

have

higher

risks

in

successful

project

completion than those with more stable systems. Countries or regions subject

to wars, terrorism, turmoil, or other types

of violence also run greater risks to successful project completion than others.

If the locality has a policy of requiring deep investigation into environmental

issues or stringent or complicated bureaucracy, projects built in that locality

will have a higher risk of late permits and conflict during construction.

Another

large

risk

on

any

project

is

the

experience

and

reputation

of

the

project

team

for

safe

construction

practices.

Safety

violations

and

accidents

can shut down a job completely. Even minor safety failures can distract the

project team and impede timely performance. If a contractor has a poor safety

record, the risk of delays because of safety violations is increased and should

be taken into account during schedule development.

A

large volume

of

change

orders on

a project

will

affect

employee

morale;

.

.

9

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

there

is

nothing

worse

than

asking

a

craftsman

to

rip

out

recently

installed

high-quality woodwork for a requested change. If the CM has a good change

management program in place, including most importantly good planning, the

risks

of

negative

pressure

from

changes

are

lowered.

Without

the

program,

the

risks

may

be

significant

enough

to

derail

project

completion.

Most

conversations

about

risk

are

related

to

negative

risks

that

impair

successful

performance,

but

often

there

are

opportunities

that

would

be

overlooked

without good risk assessment. A renovation project that calls for a three-story

masonry wall to be demolished to the foundation in order to install a beam

and column system might be redesigned with a pin beam temporary support

structure, allowing the upper two stories to remain in place, saving time and

money, as well as removing some risk. The brainstorming about risks needs to

include looking for opportunities that could positively impact the project time

for completion.

It seems obvious that failure to plan for the myriad of risks that often affect

project

performance

will

render

the

planning

less

accurate.

Without

risk

management, every item that might appear on a risk register (a checklist of

potential

risks)

is

a

surprise

to

the

project

team

should

it

happen,

diverting

attention and emphasis from the project management and consuming valuable

resources. Most disputes arise from risks that likely were not considered at the

inception

of

the

project

and

might

have

been

eliminated

or

mitigated

with

good risk planning.

.

.

10

计 划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

Once

a

company

develops

a

regular

risk

management

culture,

the

risk

register generates many of the same risks on project after project. However, a

company’s ‘‘risk

register’’ should not be a fixed template, used as is on all its

projects. The list must be updated and customized for each project taking into

consideration its own risks. These lessons learned, when incorporated into the

project schedule through the risk management

program,

are

invaluable

in

helping

to

minimize

threats

that

carry

negative

impacts

and

take

advantage

of

opportunities

that

bring

positive

impacts

to

project comp.

IMPORTANCE OF GOOD PLANNING FOR RISK MANAGEMENT

The quality of the risk management plan will control the usefulness of the

risk

analysis.

This

quality

is

achieved

through

developing

a

good

and

encompassing

master

risk

register

in

a

brainstorming

workshop

with

experienced

attendees,

and

following

that

process

with

analysis

and

risk

allocation.

This

is

combined

with

a

process

of

continuing

risk

monitoring

during updates as well as continuous cycles of risk management.

Participants

in

the

workshop

will

often

comment

that

they

cannot

take

certain risks into account because they do not have control of the risks or they

have

no

idea

if

that

risk

will

actually

happen.

One

of

the

typical

issues

is

repeated

cycles

of

shop

drawings,

where

experience

tells

us

that

a

complicated design may cause structural steel shop drawings to be rejected,

requiring

revision

and

resubmission.

Some

stakeholders

feel

that

this

is

.

.

11

计划风险管理中英文对照外文翻译文献

< br>

beyond

their

ability

to

plan

for

and

therefore,

the

schedule

should

ignore

it

and assume the risk will not happen. Accepting this assumption minimizes the

risk identification and analysis process. This type of risk should be identified,

and then during the qualitative analysis, it will be weeded out as a low priority

or incorporated as a high priority. However, if the risk is just not included on

the risk register, the opportunity to analyze it is lost.

With a thorough and organized risk workshop, based on a good master risk

register,

and

participation

by

the

major

stakeholders

as

well

as

the

project

management

team,

the

output

of

the

risk

analysis

will

be

very

useful.

The

most likely risks will be identified and analyzed, and with the rest of the risk

management

steps,

the

schedule

will

evolve

into

a

risk-adjusted

schedule,

capable of reasonable analysis and realistic completion predictions.

RISK SHIFTING IN CONTRACTS

Contract language may have a significant impact on how much of the risk

each

party

carries.

Sometimes

called

exculpatory

clauses,

this

language

attempts to shift or apportion undetermined risk. Contracts are often used to

control

or

assign

risk

to various

parties, or

just to

assign it

to

a

party

other

than

the

owner.

Many

owners,

developers,

and

contractors

prefer

using

standard contract forms, such as those specially developed by organizations

such

as

the

American

Institute

of

Architecture

(AIA),

the

Construction

Management Association of America (CMAA), and the

Associated

General

Contractors

(AGC)

in

the

United

States

and

FIDIC

or

.

.

12