王关富商务英语阅读第二版参考译文分析解析

因此在

经济复苏的过程中，经济总量可能会按照预估的

< br>6-8%

的速度增长，失业率会持续下跌，与

本次经济危 机严重程度相似的

1973-75

和

1981-82

的两次经济危机都证明了这一点。

No bounce-back

没有复苏

But this particular recession was triggered by a financial crisi

s that damaged the financial system’s

ability to channel savings to productive investment and left consumers and businesses struggling

with surplus buildings, equipment and debt accumulated in the boom. Recovery after that kind of

crisis is often slow and weak, and indeed some nine months into the upturn GDP has probably

grown at an annual rate of less than 4%. Unemployment is well up throughout the country (see

map), though it declined slightly in February.

但是由于本次经济萧条是由金融危机引发的，后者严重削弱了金融体制有效分流投资的能

力，

使消费者和企业在经济繁荣期积累下的多余建筑、

装备和债务中费力挣扎。

这样的经济

危机之后的复苏通常缓慢无 力，实际上经济复苏大约九个月后

GDP

的年增长率仍在

4%

的

水平。失业率在全国范围内突飞猛进， 尽管二月曾有小幅下降。

So if America is to avoid the stagnation that afflicted Japan after its bubbles burst, where is the

demand

going

to

come

from?

In

the

short

term

the

federal

government

has

stepped

up

its

borrowing

—

to

10%

of

GDP

this

year

—

to

counteract

the

drop

in

private

consumption

and

investment.

Over

the

next

few

years

this

stimulus

will

be

withdrawn. Barack Obama

wants

the

deficit to come down to around 3% of GDP by the middle of this decade, though it is not clear

how that will be achieved. Indeed, if the rest of the economy remains moribund, the government

may be reluctant to withdraw the stimulus for fear of pushing the economy back into recession.

所以美国若想避免日本经济泡沫破碎 之后出现的经济停滞，

应该到哪里寻找强劲的需求呢？

短期看来 联邦

ZF

已经开始借贷

——

GDP

的

10%

——

来抵制个人消费和投

资的下 降趋势。

接下来的几年里此项措施会逐渐取消。

奥巴马希望财政 赤字能够下降到仅占

GDP

的

3%

的水平，

虽然这个目标如何实现尚不清楚。

实际上如果经济形势保持这种没落的

态势，

ZF

可能不太愿意取消刺激计划，以免经济再次陷入萧条。

Tighter credit and lower consumer borrowing are not the only drivers of economic restructuring. A

less

noticed

but

significant

push

comes

from

higher

energy

prices.

A

strengthening

dollar

and

ample supply kept oil cheap for most of the 1990s, feeding America’s addiction to imports. That

be

gan

to

change

a

few

years

before

the

crisis

as

the

dollar

fell

and

emerging

markets’

growing

appetite put pressure on global production capacity.

信贷紧缩和消费者借贷减少并不是经济改革的唯一原因。

一个不太引人注目但十分重要的原

因是能源价格的上升。

平，< /p>

使美国过分依赖进口，

因此在此次危机爆发之前的几年里，

美元的贬值和新兴市场的强

劲需求共同给全球能源生产能力施加了压力 。

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A

fourfold

increase

in

oil

prices

since

the

1990s

has

rearranged

both

consumer

and

producer

incentives.

Sport-utility

vehicles

are

losing

popularity,

policies

to

boost

conservation

and

renewable energy have become bolder, and producers have found a lot more oil below America’s

soil and coastal seabed. Imports of the stuff have dropped by 10% since 2006 and are likely

to

come

down

further.

When

natural-gas

prices

followed

the

rise

in

oil

earlier

this

decade,

exploration companies used new methods to get at gas trapped in shale formations from Texas to

Pennsylvania. Abundant domestic shale gas should radically reduce Ame

rica’s gas imports.

自二十 世纪九十年代以来，

石油价格已经上涨了四倍，

这大大改变了对 消费者和厂家的生产

消费活动。多用途运动车（

SUV

）不再流行，推动节能和使用可再生能源的政策更为大胆，

制造商也在美 洲大陆和沿海海床下发现了更多的石油储备。对于原材料的进口自

2006

年以

来已经下降了

10%

， 并估计将保持下降趋势。前几年油价上涨之后天然气价格随之上涨，

石油勘探公司用尽一 切新方法想要发掘出德州和宾州蕴藏于页岩中的天然气。

国内页岩天然

< br>气的存在会大幅减少美国的天然气进口。

America’s

eco

nomic

geography

will

change

too.

Cheap

petrol

and

ample

credit

encouraged

millions of Americans to flock to southern states and to distant suburbs (“exurbs”) in search of big

houses

with

lots

of

land.

Now

the

housing

bust

has

tied

them

to

homes

they

cannot

sell.

Population

growth

in

the

suburbs

has

slowed.

For

the

present

the

rise

of

knowledge-intensive

global industries favours centres rich in infrastructure and specialised skills. Some are traditional

urban

cores

such

as

New

York

and

some

are

suburban

edge

cities

that

offer

jobs

along

with

affordable houses and short commutes.

美国的经济地理也会随之改变。

廉价 的汽油和充裕的信贷使得上百万美国人涌入南部各州和

边远郊区购买附带有大片土地的房 屋。

但是现在房产泡沫的破碎把他们紧紧固定在这些他们

卖不出 去的房子上。

郊区人口增长放缓，

现在全球范围内不断崛起额知 识密集型产业更加青

睐那些拥有优良基础设施和熟练专业技能的城市中心。有一些是传统 的城市核心比如纽约，

另一些是近郊的城市，

它们可以为市民提 供就业机会和价格公道的房屋，

上下班所需时间也

不长。

A burst of productivity could lift incomes and profits. That would enable consumers to repay some

of their debt yet continue to spend. The change in the mix of growth should help: productivity in

construction remains low, whereas in exports the most productive companies often do best. But

the

hobbled

financial

system

will

make

it

hard

for

cash- hungry

start-ups

to

get

financing,

so

innovation will suffer.

劳动生产率的提高会增加收入和利润，

这会使消费者在偿还一部分债务 的同时继续消费。

这

种对于促进增长的混合作用是有益的：

建筑业的劳动生产率尚未提高，

但是在出口方面多产

的公司往往表现出色。

然而不健全的金融体制会使得那些急需资本的创业者很难 获得融资援

助，所以创新会受到影响。

The

outlook

for

business

investment

depends

on

whether

it

is

for

equipment

or

buildings.

Spending on equipment is expected to be fairly strong, having largely avoided excess in the boom

period,

and

indeed

in

the

fourth

quarter

of

2009

it

raced

ahead

at

an

annual

rate

of

19%.

In

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February John Chambers, the boss of Cisco Systems, a maker of networking gear, called it “one of

the most robust, positive turnarounds I’ve seen in my career”. Demand for new bui

ldings is far

lower: empty shops and offices attest to ample unused capacity. And business investment typically

accounts for only 10-12% of GDP, so it will never be a full substitute for consumer spending.

商业投资的前景取决于到底是投资给仪 器设备还是地产。

对于仪器设备的消费应该会十分强

劲，

因为在经济繁荣期很大程度上已经避免了产能过剩的情况。

实际上在< /p>

2009

年第四季度，

该项消费的年增长 率达到了

19%

。

二月

Cisco

的老总

John Chambers

把该趋势称作

“

我职业生

涯中见到过的最有利最积极的经济回转。

”

The road to salvation

自救的道路

As consumers rebuild their savings, American firms must increasingly look abroad for sales. They

have

a

lot

of

ground

to

make

up.

Competition

from

low-wage

countries,

mostly

China,

has

increasingly taken over the markets of domestic industries such as furniture, clothing or consumer

electronics. Yet shifts in the pattern of global growth and the dollar are laying the groundwork for

a boom in exports. “There’s a world view that the United States is the consumer of the world and

emerging

markets

are

the

producer,”

says

Bruce

Kasman,

chief

economist

at

JPMorgan

Chase.

“That has changed.” He reckons that America will account for just 27% of global consumption

this year against emerging markets’ 34%, roughly the reverse of their shares eight years ago.

由于消费者重新开始储蓄，

美国公司 必须面向海外求得市场。

有很多地方可以弥补国内的市

场萧条。 来自低工资国家，主要是中国的有力竞争已经使得美国国内工业品市场比如家具、

纺织和 电子产品被迅速占据。

但全球经济增长方式的转变和美元地位的变化都为出口大幅增

长奠定了基础。

“

以前有一种观点，即美国 是世界消费者而新兴市场是制造商，

”

摩根大通首

席经济学家

Bruce

Kasman

如是说。

“

但这种情形已经改变了。

”

他认为美国今年仅会在全球

消费中占到

27%

的比重，而新兴市场会占

34%

，这与八年前的情形刚好相反。

The

cheaper

dollar

will

resuscitate

some

industries

in

commoditised

markets,

but

the

main

beneficiaries of the export boom will be companies that are already formidable exporters. These

companies reflect America’s strengths in high

-end services and highly skilled manufacturing such

as medical devices, pharmaceuticals, software and engineering, as

well as creative

services like

film, architecture and advertising. Thanks to cheap digital technology, South Korea and India now

knock

out

the

sort

of

low- budget

films

that

compete

with

standard

American

fare.

But

only

Hollywood combines the creativity, ex

pertise and market savvy to make something like “Avatar”

which

has

earned

$$2.6

billion

so

far,

some

70%

of

which

came

from

abroad.

That

adds

up

to

several jumbo jets.

美元贬值使得一些平价消费品产业 重获发展，

但是出口扩大最主要的获益者是那些已经很强

大的出 口商。这些公司反映出美国在高端服务产业、高技术制造业

（医疗设备、药品生产和

软件工程）

和创意产业

（电影、