-
Can bad luck be explained?
生活中的倒霉事能解释吗？
1 Toast always lands butter side down.
It always rains on bank holidays. You never win
the lottery,
but
other
people
you
know
seem
to ...
Do
you
ever
get
the
impression
that
you
were
born
unlucky? Even the most
rational person can be convinced at times that
there is a force out there
making
mishaps occur at the worst possible time. We all
like to believe that Murphy's Law is true
< br>(
每次吐司掉到地上总是抹了黄油的那一面贴地。
每逢公
假日必定下雨。
你买彩票从来没中过
大奖
,
但是你认识的人里似乎有人
……
你
有没有觉得自己生来就是个倒霉蛋？即使是最理智
的人有时候也会对此深信不疑，认为冥
冥之中有一种力量让他们在最糟糕的时期里灾祸连
连。我们都愿意相信墨菲法则是对的（
“
该出错的，终将出错
”
）
。
2 Part of the explanation for bad luck
is mathematical, but part is psychological. Indeed
there is a
very close connection
between people's perception of bad luck and
interesting coincidences.
人之所以走背运，部分是概率的问题
,
部分是心理上的问题。的确，人们对背运的感知和
一些有意思的巧合之间有着紧密的联系。
3 For example, take the belief that
popular notion would be unlikely to
stand the scrutiny of any scientific study, but it
must have
some basis in experience,
otherwise the phrase would never have arisen in
the first place. What
might be the
rational explanation?
就拿
“
坏事成三
”
这种想法来说吧（就像等公交车一
样，要么不来，要么一下来三辆！
）
。这种
流传甚广的观念可能根本经不起科学的检验，但是它必定有一些现实的依据
,
不然的话也
不会有这样的说法了。
那么，什么样的解释才是合理的呢？
4 The first question is
我们要考
虑的第一个问题是
“
什么是坏事？
”<
/p>
5 Some things
are only marginally bad, for example the train
arriving five minutes late. Some are
extremely bad, such as failing an exam
or being sacked. So badness is much better
represented as
being on a spectrum
rather than something which is there or not there.
有些事情只是稍稍有点不好，
比如火车晚点五分钟。
有些事情则是糟糕透顶，
比如考试不及
格，
或是被炒了鱿鱼。
所以我们更应该把事情的好坏看成是一个程度的问题
，
而不是非好即
坏。
6 A particular event may
only be a misfortune because of the circumstances
around it. The train
arriving
five
minutes
late
is
a
neutral
event
if
you
are
in
no
hurry
and
reading
an
interesting
newspaper article while you wait. It is
bad if you are late for an important meeting.
某件事情有可能因为相关的一些因素而变成了不幸的事。
火车晚点五分钟
，
如果你边读着报
纸上一篇有趣的文章边等车，
并不赶时间，
那么这就是一件无关紧要的事。
但是如果
你要去
参加一个重要会议，而且马上要迟到了，那火车晚点就变成坏事了。
7 When it comes to
bad things happening in threes, what may be most
important of all is the
duration and
memorability of the first event. Take a burst pipe
while you are away on holiday, for
example. It may take less than an hour
to flood the house, but this one bad event can
remain
alive
and
kicking
for
many
months,
with
the
cleaning
up
operation
and
the
debate
with
your
insurers acting as constant reminders
of the original event.
谈到坏事成三的问题，
其中最关键的因素是第一件倒霉事持续的时间有多长以及给人的印象
深不深。
比如说，
你外出度假期间家里的水管爆裂了。
< br>也许不到一个小时你的家就变成了一
片汪洋，
而在接下来
的几个月中你的脑子会不停地想起这桩倒霉事，
因为你要把房子清理干
< br>净，还要和保险公司就赔偿问题讨价还价，这些都会让你不断地想起这件事。
8 The longer the first bad
event sticks in the front of your mind, the more
opportunities you will
have to
experience two more bad events. A month later
someone bumps the back of your car
and
a week after that you lose your wedding ring. The
mind which is already on a low from the
first
event
will
quickly
leap
to
connect
the
subsequent
misfortunes
as
part
of
the
series.
It
wouldn't matter that there could be a
two-month timescale over which everything
happened. By
the time you have
recovered from the water damage you are actively
looking out for the next
disaster.
The
timescale
has
been
extended
as
long
as
is
necessary
to
confirm
the
original
prophecy.
第一件倒霉事困扰你的时间越长，
你遇到两件倒霉事的几率就越大。
说不定一个月之后，
有
人开车追尾撞了你的车。
又过了一个星期，你的结婚戒指不见了。
出了第一件倒霉事，
你的
情绪本来就很低落，
这时你会很快地把后来
发生的事情联系到一起，
把它们看作是有关联的
一连串事件。<
/p>
即使这几件事情的时间跨度可能长达两个月之久，
那也不会改变你
的看法。
等
你从浸水事件中平复过来的时候，
< br>你已经在积极地等待下一个灾难的发生了。
这个时间跨度
已经被拉长了，直至能够证明
你之前的预言是对的。
9 As with coincidences, in bad luck
there is a tendency to look for the examples which
confirm
the theory, and ignore those
which don't (because they are less interesting).
Single bad events
happen all the time.
That alone should be enough to disprove the
theory. Bad things also come in
twos.
But it is more likely that a friend will tell you
that typical
doesn't
work
人们碰上倒霉事的时候会像遇到巧合的时候一样，<
/p>
去寻找一些事例来验证他们先入为主的想
法，而忽略掉与这种想法
有出入的事情（因为那些事情不是那么有趣）
。孤立的倒霉事每时
每刻都在发生。光凭这一点就可以推翻
“
坏事成三
”
的理论了。坏事也可以是成双的。但是你
的朋友
很可能会对你说：
“
我一连碰到了三件倒霉事，可真是应了那句
俗话！
”
，而不是说：
“
我只碰上了两件倒霉事，这不正好证明了
‘
坏事成三
’
这个说法不成立吗？
”
毕竟，说后一种
话是要冒风险的！
10
There
is,
however,
at
least
one
rational
reason
why
bad
events
might
cluster
together.
It
is
related
to
probability
and
independence.
Unlucky
events
are
not
always
independent
of
each
other.
Anybody who is made redundant is bound to suffer
some depression. That will lower the
body's
defences,
making
the
person
vulnerable
to
illness,
and
also
making
them
less
alert
and
responsive
(so
they
may
be
more
likely
to
drop
a
precious
vase,
for
example).
So
while
the
probability of being made redundant on
any particular day and the probability of being
sick may