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Chinese Population Growth
Increases in
population have usually been accompanied (indeed
facilitated)
by an increase in trade. In the Western
experience, commerce provided the
conditions that
allowed industrialization to get started, which in
turn led to
growth in science, technology,
industry, transport, communications, social
change, and the like that we group
under the broad term of
“
dev
elopment.
”
However, the
massive increase in population that in Europe was
at first
attributed to industrialization
starting in the eighteenth century occurred also
and
at the same period in China, even though there was
no comparable
industrialization.
It is estimated
that the Chinese population by 1600 was close to
150
million. The transition between the
Ming and Qing dynasties (the seventeenth
century) may have seen a decline, but
from 1741 to 1851 the annual figures rose
steadily and spectacularly, perhaps
beginning with 143 million and ending with
432
million. If we accept these totals, we are
confronted with a situation in
which the
Chinese population doubled in the 50 years from
1790 to 1840. If, with
greater caution, we assume
lower totals in the early eighteenth century and
only
400 million in 1850, we still face a
startling fact: something like a doubling
of
the vast Chinese population in the century before
Western contact, foreign
trade, and
industrialization could have had much effect.
To
explain this sudden increase we cannot point to
factors constant in
Chinese society but must
find conditions or a combination of factors that
were
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