巨无霸指数

2021年1月30日发(作者：遗留问题)

简单了解巨无霸指数

各国的汉堡包价格与美国 汉堡包价格之比即为此国货币与美元的巨无霸指数

例如：当前 中国的汉堡包（巨无霸）的价格是￥

9.50

，而美国的是

$$2.90

。于是人民币对美元

的当前巨无 霸指数就是

2.90

÷

9.50

＝

3.28

这个数值大大低于当前人民币与 美元的汇率

8.28

，据此理论，我们就认为人民币被低估了< /p>

这个指数是由《经济学人》

《

Economist

》制定的。主要理论依据是购买力平价理论。

关于这个指数最详细的介绍，莫过于《

Ec onomist

》自己的一篇文章，现在与大家分享这篇

妙文。

Food for thought

May 27th 2004 From The Economist print edition

The world economy looks very different once countries' output is adjusted for differences in prices

用不同的标准衡量国家产出，就会看到不同的世界经济

HOW fast is the world economy growing? How important is China as an engine

of growth? How

much richer is the average person in America than in China? The answers to these huge questions

depend

crucially

on

how

you convert

the

value

of

output

in

different

countries

into

a common

currency.

Converting

national

GDPs

into

dollars

at market

exchange

rates

is

misleading.

Prices

tend to be lower in poor economies, so a dollar of spending in China, say, is worth a lot more than

a

dollar

in

America.

A

better

method

is

to

use

purchasing-power

parities

(PPP),

which

take

account of price differences.

世界经济增长的有多快？作为一个增长引擎，

中国在世界经济中有多重要？美国人均比中国

富多少？如何把不同国家的产出价 值换算成相同的货币决定了这些问题的答案。

把一个国家

的

GDP

以市场兑换率转换成美元，这样会引入误区。贫穷经济地区的 物价比较低，所以在

中国花一美元比在美国价值高。一种更好的方法是以购买力平价

(PPP)

计算，它考虑到了价

格差异。< /p>

The

theory

of

purchasing-power

parity

says

that

in

the

long

run

exchange

rates

should

move

towards

rates

that would

equalise

the

prices

of

an

identical

basket

of

goods

and services

in

any

two countries. This is the thinking behind The Economist's Big Mac index. Invented in 1986 as a

light-hearted guide to whether currencies are at the

ir “correct” level, our “basket” is a McDonalds'

Big Mac, which is produced locally in almost 120 countries.

< p>
根据购买力平价理论，

任何两个国家间相同的一篮子商品和服务的价格应该 可以通过汇率调

整成相等的价格。购买力平价理论是《经济学人》巨无霸指数的理论基础 。在

1986

年发明

的作为轻松指导货 币是否在“正确”水平上的指数，我们的“篮子”就是在

120

多个国家生

产的麦当劳汉堡包。

The Big Mac PPP is the exchange rate that would leave a burger in any country costing the same

as in America. The first column of our table converts the local price of a Big Mac into dollars at

current exchange rates. The average price of a Big Mac in four American cities is $$2.90 (including

tax).

The

cheapest

shown

in

the

table

is

in

the

Philippines

($$1.23),

the

most

expensive

in

Switzerland ($$4.90). In other words, the Philippine peso is the world's most undervalued currency,

the Swiss franc its most overvalued.

巨无霸指数是 让任何国家一个巨无霸的成本都与美国的相同的汇率。

我们根据对多个地方的

< p>
汉堡包调查制作了一个表格，表格中的第一列以当前的汇率把当地汉堡包的价钱换成美元。

美国四个城市汉堡包的平均价格为

2.90

美元 。表格显示菲律宾的汉堡最便宜（

1.23

美元一

个）

，瑞典的最贵（

4.90

美元）

。换句话说，菲律宾比索是世界上最被低估的货币，瑞士法郎

< br>是最被高估的。

The second column calculates Big Mac PPPs by dividing the local currency price by the American

price. For instance, in Japan a Big Mac costs ?

262. Dividing this by the American price of $$2.90

produces a dollar PPP against the yen of ?

90, compared with its current rate of ?

113, suggesting

that the yen is 20% undervalued. In contrast, the euro (based on a weighted average of Big Mac

prices

in

the

euro

area)

is

13%

overvalued.

But

perhaps

the

most

interesting

finding

is

that

all

emerging-market currencies are undervalued against the dollar. The Chinese yuan, on which much

ink has been spilled in recent months, looks 57% too cheap.

第二列汉堡包平价是用美国汉堡包价格除以当地汉堡包的价格来计算的。

例如：

在日本汉堡

包

262

日元一个，用美国价格

2.90

美元除以

262

日元，平价值为

90

日元，同当前日元汇率

113

相比，表明日元被低估了

20%

。与之相反的是，欧元被高估了

13%

。但是也许最有趣的

发现是所有新兴市场的货币兑美元都 被低估了，中国的人民币看起来便宜

57%

。

< br>

The Big Mac index was never intended as a precise forecasting tool. Burgers are not traded across

borders as the PPP

theory demands; prices are distorted by differences in the cost of non- tradable

goods and services, such as rents.

巨无霸指数从来都没想成为一个精确的预测工 具。

汉堡不会因为购买力平价理论的需求而跨

国交易；非贸易商 品以及服务成本的不同造成了价格差异，比如租金。

Y

et these very failings make the Big Mac index useful, since looked at another way it can help to

measure countries'

differing costs

of

living.

That

a

Big

Mac

is cheap

in

China

does

not

in

fact

prove

that

the

yuan

is

being

held

massively

below

its

fair

value,

as

many

American

politicians

claim. It is quite natural for average prices to be lower in poorer countries and therefore for their

currencies

to

appear

cheap.

The

prices

of

traded

goods

will

tend

to

be

similar

to

those

in

developed

economies.

But

the

prices

of

non-tradable

products,

such

as

housing

and

labour-intensive services, are generally much lower. A

hair-cut is, for instance, much cheaper in

Beijing than in New Y

ork.

但是，

这些缺点让巨无霸指数指数变得很有用，

因为换个角度看，

巨无霸指数可以帮助衡量

不同国家的生活 成本。

中国的汉堡包便宜，

事实上不能证明象许多美国政客宣称 的那样人民

币大大低于它的公平价值。

在比较贫穷的国家，

平均物价自然较低，

因此它们的货币看起来

也便宜。

发展中国家贸易产品的价格同发达国家趋于相似。

但是 非贸易产品的价格，

象住房

和劳动力密集的服务，一般来说就会 低一些。在北京理发就比纽约便宜。

One big implication of lower prices is that converting a poor country's GDP into dollars at market

exchange rates will significantly understate the true size of its economy and its living standards. If

China's GDP

is converted into dollars using the

Big

Mac PPP

, it is almost two-and-a-half-times

bigger than if converted at the market exchange rate.

较低价格的一个重要含义是：以市场汇率把贫穷国家的

GDP

转换成美元会低估其真正的经

济规模和 生活标准。用汉堡包平价换算中国的

GDP

是用市场汇率换算值 的

2.5

倍。

The global economic picture thus looks hugely different when examined through a PPP lens. Take

the

pace

of

global

growth.

Anyone wanting

to calculate

this

needs

to

bundle

together countries'

growth rates, with each one weighted according to its share of world GDP

. Using weights based on

market exchange rates, the world has grown by an annual average of only 1.9% over the past three

years. Using PPP

, as the IMF does, global growth jumps to a far more robust 3.1% a year.

因此，

全球的经济图案站在购买力平 价理论的视角看来会有很大不同。

正像美联储所用的方

法，用购 买力平价理论衡量的话，在过去三年里，世界经济的平均增长速度是每年

3.1%

而

不是

1.9%

。< /p>

The main reason for this difference is that using PPP conversion factors almost doubles the weight