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实验结论
In this
argument, the arguer concludes that
…
p>
doing
…
will
lead to
…
To
support the
conclusion, the arguer
points out that
…
In addition,
the arguer reasons that
…
The argument suffers from
several critical fallacies.
自己应该干吗
根据观察和现象
自己改正
根据因果
In this
argument, the arguer recommends that
…
should advise
…
to
…
To justify this
claim
,
the
arguer
provides
the
evidence
that
…
Thus
…
should
follow
the
study
’
s
recommendation and
…
in order to
…
自己尝试新方法
根据预测
和
假想
The conclusion
in this argument is that
…
can expect to
…
by doing
…
In support of
this prediction, the arguer
claim
s that
…
Moreover
, the arguer
assumes
that this
attempt
has
…
benefits:1)
to;
2)to;
3)to;
This
argument
is
fraught
with
vague,
oversimplified, and
unwarranted assumptions.
换一个供应商
In this
argument, the arguer advocates that
…
should
…
This
recommendation is
based on
the observation that
…
Meanwhile, the arguer assumes
…
to be a better
choice
…
because
…
This argument is
problematic for
…
reasons.
自己应该干吗
根据其他州的情况
In this
analysis, the arguer claims that
…
should
…
To substantiate the
conclusion, the arguer cites
the
example of
…
where
…
In addition, the arguer
assumes that
…
This argument
is unconvincing
for several critical
flaws.
正文:
The
m
ajor problem with this argument is
tha
t …
Another
flaw that weakens this argument is that.
…
In addition, the arguer
ignores several factors that might undermine the
argum
ent.
…
the
arguer
fails
to
consider
several
other
relevant
factors
that
might
influence
…
For instance …
since … what’s m
ore … etc.
样本的问题:
When
samples
are
used
to
m
ake
general
claims
about
a
particular
group,
the
sam
ples
should be close enough in time to the generation
they are used to support,
so that
historical changes will not invalidate the
generalization
调查
survey
的问题:
The sample
of the survey conducted by the … is
vague.
But
we
are
told
nothing
about
the
way the
poll
was
conducted
and
how
well
it
represented the public
opinions..
(民意测验)
How many people participated?
The sample of the survey is
not representative.
数据的问题:
(
平
均
值
)
The
study
revealed,
on
average,
only
a
sm
all
statistical
correlation
between
(实验的数据不可靠)
the
data of the research is unconvincing
(样本太小)
the sample
is too small to...
(光数字没比例)
the ratio of four to six
there is only figures but no proportion
of the survey
还是
ratio?
Insufficient
Sample
If the
[respondents] only stand for a tiny proportion of
the whole [group], we
should not be so
sure about the conclusion that [the whole
group…]
The arguer commits a
fallacy of hasty generalization.
It was only carried out in Sun City,
but the arguer applies its result to all the
company’s markets while doesn’t show us
whether Sun City is a representative
market of the whole markets.
实验组的人:性别,年龄,生理特征
副作用
有的病人会对抗生素过敏
错误的类比:
But
the
problem
is
that the two
situations
are
not
sim
ilar
enough
to
justify
the
analogical deduction
.
错误的比较:
The com
parison in this
argument is incom
plete and selective.
The arguer discovers
that …
However, the a
rguer fails to
provide any information regarding … respectively
…
别的因素:
Furthermore
the arguer ignores the possibility that …
m
ay … Unless the arguer also
takes this factor into consideration,
the com
parison is unconvincing.
It is very likely that …
and
hence… varies
significantly
.
没有因果:
Confusing
causal relation with correlation
the arguer
commits a fallacy
of hasty generalization
.
Even if
the
maintenance of the airline
has been improved as a result of
sending
its
mechanics
to the
Seminar,
which
is,
of
course, an
unwarranted
assumption, it
does not follow that
就算怎样,也不怎样
Finally, the arguer hints that … but he
fails to analyze the causes. Is it because… or
because … ?
-------------------------------------------
----------------
其他:
The fact that … does not necessarily
imply that …
First of all, the argum
ent
is based on a hasty generalization. According to
the cited
studies …
which is understandable.
It is very likely that …
and hence… varies significantly.
分析常用:
the actual am
ount of
tim
e for doing
…
respectively …
The survey is based on two isolated
examples. The arguer should survey more hospitals
of both
types.
How large was the sam
ple
How many people
participated?
What extent do this
participators improve their …speed?
The arguer fails to
indicate
the attitude of the residents
to the
ABC's performance.
循环假设
The arguer
commits a fallacy of begging the question in
assuming that
…
-
--------------------------------------------------
----------
结尾:
To
sum
up, the
conclusion lacks
credibility because
the evidence
cited in the analysis
does
not
lend
strong
support
to
what
the
arguer
maintains.
To
strengthen
the
argument,
the
arguer
would
have
to
provide
m
ore
evidence
concerning
the
percentage of the affected families and
their geographical distribution.
In summary, the conclusion
reached in this argument is invalid and
misleading.
In
conclusion,
the
arguer
fails
to
establish
a
causal
relationship
between
…
To
strengthen
the
argument,
the
arguer
would
have
to
provide
evidence
that
…To
better evaluate the
argum
ent, we would need more
information about …
As it stands, the argument is not well
reasoned. To m
ake it logically
acceptable, the
arguer would have to
demonstrate that
… is the
only condition that …Additionally,
the
arguer must provide evidence to
rule
out
other possible causes of
the …
To
conclude, this argument is not persuasive as it
stands.
范文观摩呀!
Argument
37
The
following
is
a
memorandum
from
the
director of personnel to
the president of Get-Away Airlines.
our
mechanics
are
responsible
for
inspecting
and
maintaining our
aircraft, Get-Away Airlines should pay to send
them
to
the
Quality-Care
Seminar,
a
two-week
seminar
on
proper
maintenance
procedures.
I
recommend
this
seminar
because
it
is
likely
to
be
a
wise
investment,
given
that
the
automobile
racing
industry
recently
reported
that
the
performance
of
its
maintenance
crews
improved
markedly
after
their
crews
had
attended
the
seminar.
These
maintenance crews perform many of the
same functions as do
our mechanics,
including refueling and repairing engines. The
money
we
spend
on
sending
our
staff
to
the
seminar
will
inevitably lead to improved maintenance
and thus to greater
customer
satisfaction
along
with
greater
profits
for
our
airline.
[
建议,看别人好自己也要
]
In
this
argument,
the
arguer
concludes
that
sending
the
mechanics of Get-Away
Airlines to a two-week Quality-Care Seminar
on
proper
maintenance
procedures
will
automatically
lead
to
improved
maintenance
and
to
greater
customer
satisfaction
along
with greater profits
for the airline.
To support the
conclusion, the
arguer points out
that
the performance of the maintenance
crews
in the automobile racing industry
improved markedly after their crews
had
attended the seminar.
In addition, the
arguer reasons that
since
the maintenance crews of the automobile racing
industry and
the
mechanics
of
Get-Away
Airlines
perform
many
of
the
same
functions,
the
airlines
will
gain
similar
benefits
from
the
training
program.
This argument suffers from several
critical fallacies.
First,
the argument Is based
on a false analogy.
The arguer
simply assumes
that airplane
mechanics and automobile maintenance
crews perform many
similar
functions,
but he does not provide any
evidence
that their
functions are
indeed
comparable
. As we know, the
structure,
operation
and
function
of
airplanes
and
those
of
automobiles differ conspicuously. It is
true that both the airplane and
the
automobile
need
refueling
and
engine
maintenance,
but
even
here
there
exist
fundamental
differences:
the
structure
and
the
building materials of
each other's engines are different, so is the oil
they use. Therefore, even though the
two-week Quality-Care Seminar
proved
effective in improving
the
performance
of the
maintenance
crews in the
automobile racing industry, there is no guarantee
that it
will work just as well for
airplane mechanics.
Second,
the
arguer
commits
a
fallacy
of
hasty
generalization
.
Even
if
the
maintenance
of
the
airline
has
been
improved
as a result of
sending its mechanics to
the Seminar,
which is,
of
course, an unwarranted assumption, it does not
follow that
there
will be
greater profits as well as greater customer
satisfaction for the
airline.
As we know,
customer
satisfaction
depends on several major
factors
other
than
good
maintenance
of the
airplane.
For
instance,
customers
are
generally
concerned
about
the
punctuality,
the
on-board
service
,
the
ticket
price,
the
luggage
handling
procedure
and even the
discount
,
all of
which are ignored by the arguer
.
Besides,
the arguer does not provide
any solid information concerning
how
the
airplane
can
improve
its
profits.
Unless
Get-Away
Airlines
can
significantly increase
its
customers or
passengers and
at
the same
time
cut
down
its
costs,
both
of
which
are
unknown
from
this
argument
,
there
is
no
guarantee
that
it
wil
l
harvest
greater
profits
. Actually, the arguer's
recommendation of investing in
this
training
program
as
the
only
way
to
increase
customer
satisfaction and
profits
would most probably turn out to
be ineffective
and misleading.
In
conclusion,
the
arguer
fails
to
establish
a
causal
relationship
between
sending
Get-A
way's
mechanics
to
the
Quality-Care Seminar and improved
maintenance, greater customer
satisfaction
and
greater
profits for
the airline.
To strengthen
the
argument,
the
arguer
would
have
to
provide
evidence
that
automobile
maintenance
and
airplane
maintenance
are
similar
in
every
aspect
.
To better evaluate
the argument, we would need
more
information
about
the
relationship
between
improved
maintenance
and
greater
customer
satisfaction
along
with
greater
profits.
Argument 47:
The nation of Claria covers a vast
physical area.
But
despite
wide
geographic
differences,
many
citizens
are
experiencing
rising
costs
of
electricity.
A
recent
study
of
household
electric
costs
in
Claria
found
that
families
who
cooled their houses with fans alone
spent more on electricity
than
did
families
using
air
conditioners
alone
for
cooling.
However, those households that reported
using both fans and
air
conditioners
spent
less
on
electricity
than
those
households
that
used
either
fans
or
air
conditioners
alone.
Thus,
the
citizens
of
Claria
should
follow
the
study's
recommendation
and
use
both
air
conditioners
and
fans
in
order to save money on
electricity.
[
建议,根据不科学调查
]
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