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第六章:投资决策
1.
机会成本是指进行一项投资时放
弃另一项投资所承担的成本。选择投资和放
弃投资之间的收益差是可能获取收益的成本。
2.
(
1
)
新的投资项目所来的公司其他产品的销售下滑属于副效应中的侵蚀效应,
应被归为增量现金流。
(
2
)投入建造的机器和厂房属于新生产线的成本,应被归为增量现金流。
< br>
(
3
)过去
3
年发生的和新项目相关的研发费用属于沉没成本,不应被归为增量
现金流。
(
4
)尽管折旧不是现金支出,对现金流量产生直接影响,但它会减少公司的净
收入,并
且减低公司的税收,因此应被归为增量现金流。
(
5
)公司发不发放股利与投不投资某一项目的决定无关,因此不应被归为增
量
现金流。
(
6
)厂房和机器设备的销售收入是一笔现金流入,因此应被归为增量现金流。
(
7
)需要支付的员
工薪水与医疗保险费用应被包括在项目成本里,因此应被归
为增量现金流。
3.
第一项因为会产生机会成本,所以会产生增
量现金流;第二项因为会产生副
效应中的侵蚀效应,所以会会产生增量现金流;第三项属
于沉没成本,不会
产生增量现金流。
4.
为了避免税收,公司可能会选择
MACRS
,因为该折旧法在早期有更大的折旧
额,
这样可以减免赋税,
并且没有任何现金流方面的
影响。
但需要注意的是直线
折旧法与
M
ACRS
的选择只是时间价值的问题,两者的折旧是相等的,只是时间
不同。
5.
这只是一个简
单的假设。因为流动负债可以全部付清,流动资产却不可能全
部以现金支付,存货也不可
能全部售完。
6.
这个说法是可以
接受的。因为某一个项目可以用权益来融资,另一个项目可
以用债务来融资,而公司的总资本结构不会发生变化。根据
MM
定理,融资成
本与项目的增量现金流量分析无关。
7. ECA
方法在分析具有不同生命周期的互
斥项目的情况下比较适应,这是因为
ECA
方法可以使得互斥
项目具有相同的生命周期,这样就可以进行比较。
ECA
方法
在假设项目现金流相同这一点与现实生活不符,
它忽略了通货膨胀率以及不
断变更的经济环境。
8.
折旧是非付现费用,但它可以在收入项目中减免赋税,这样折旧将使得实际
现金流出的
赋税减少一定额度,
并以此影响项目现金流,
因此,
折旧减免赋税的
效应应该被归为总的增量税后现金流。
9.
应考虑两个方面:第一个是侵蚀效应,新书是否会
使得现有的教材销售额下
降?第二个是竞争,是否其他出版商会进入市场并出版类似书籍
?如果是的话,
侵蚀效应将会降低。
出版商的主要需要考虑出版
新书带来的协同效应是否大于侵
蚀效应,如果大于,则应该出版新书,反之,则放弃。<
/p>
10.
当然应该考虑,是否会对保时
捷的品牌效应产生破坏是公司应该考虑到的。
如果品牌效应被破坏,汽车销量将受到一定
影响。
11.
保时捷可能有更低的
边际成本或是好的市场营销。
当然,
也有可能是一个决
策失误。
12.
保时捷将会意识到随着越来越多产品投入市场,
竞争越来越激烈
,
过高的利
润会减少。
13.
We will use the bottom-
up approach to calculate the operating cash flow
for each year.
We also must be sure to
include the net working capital cash flows each
year. So, the net
income and total cash
flow each year will be:
Y
ear01
Y
ear02
Y
ear03
Year04
Sales
$$8,500
$$9,000
$$9,500
$$7,000
Costs
1,900
2,000
2,200
1,700
Depreciation
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
EBT
$$2,600
$$3,000
$$3,300
$$1,300
Tax
884
1,020
1,122
442
Net income
$$1,716
$$1,980
$$2,178
$$858
OCF
$$5,716
$$5,980
$$6,178
$$4,858
Capital spending -$$16000
NWC
–
200
–
250
–
300
–
200
950
Incremental
–
$$16,200
$$5,466
$$5,680
$$5,978
$$5,808
cash flow
The NPV for the project is:
NPV =
–
$$16,200 + $$5,466 / 1.12 +
$$5,680 / 1.1
2
⌒
2
+ $$5,978 /
1.1
2
⌒
3
+ $$5,808 /
1.1
2
⌒
4
NPV = $$1,154.53
14.
First, we
will calculate the annual depreciation of the new
equipment. It will be:
Annual
depreciation charge = $$850,000/5 = $$170,000
The aftertax salvage value of the
equipment is:
Aftertax salvage value =
$$75,000(1
–
0.35)= $$48,750
Using the tax shield approach, the OCF
is:
OCF = $$320,000(1
–
0.35) + 0.35($$170,000)=
$$267,500
Now we can find the project
IRR. There is an unusual feature that is a part of
this project. Accepting this project
means that we will reduce NWC. This
reduction in NWC is a cash inflow at
Y
ear 0. This reduction in NWC
implies that when the project ends, we
will have to increase NWC. So, at the end of the
project, we will have a
cash outflow to
restore the NWC to its level before the project.
We also must include the aftertax salvage value at
the end of the project. The IRR of the
project is:
NPV = 0 =
–
$$850,000 + 105,000 + $$267,5
00(
年金现值表
IRR%,5
) +
[($$48,750
–
105,000) /
(1+IRR)5]
IRR = 22.01%
15.
We will begin by calculating the initial cash
outlay, that is, the cash flow at Time 0. To
undertake the project,
we will have to
purchase the equipment and increase net working
cap
ital. So, the cash outlay today for
the project
will be:
Equipment
–
$$1,800,000
NWC
–
150,000
Total
–
$$1,950,000
Using the bottom-up approach to
calculating the operating cash flow, we find the
operating
cash flow each year will be:
Sales
$$1,100,000
Costs
275,000
Depreciation
450,000
EBT
$$375,000
Tax
131,250
Net income
$$243,750
The
operating cash flow is: OCF = Net income +
Depreciation =$$243,750 + 450,000
=
$$693,750
To find the NPV of the
project, we add the present value of the project
cash flows. We must
be sure to add back
the net working capital at the end of the project
life, since we areassuming
the net
working capital will be recovered. So, the project
NPV is:
NPV =
–
$$1,950,000 +
$$693,750(PVIFA
16%,4
) +
$$150,000 / 1.1
6
⌒
4
= $$74,081.48
16. We will
need the aftertax salvage value of the equipment
to compute the EAC. Even
though the
equipment for each product has a different initial
cost, both have the same salvage
value.
The aftertax salvage value for both is:
Both cases: aftertax
salvage value = $$20,000(1
–
0.35) = $$13,000
To
calculate the EAC, we first need the OCF and NPV
of each option. The OCF and NPV for
Techron I is:
OCF=
(
Sales-Cash
)<
/p>
*
(
1-t
c<
/p>
)
+ Depreciation*
t
c
OCF =
–
$$45,000(1
–
0.35) + 0.35($$270,000/3) =
$$2,250
NPV =
–
$$270,000 +
$$2,250(PVIFA
12%,3
) +
($$13,000/1.12
3
) =
–
$$255,342.74
EAC =
–
$$255,342.74 /
(PVIFA
12%,3
) =
–
$$106,311.69
And the OCF and NPV for Techron II is:
OCF =
–
$$48,000(1
–
0.35) + 0.35($$370,000/5) =
–
$$5,300
NPV =
–
$$370,000
–
$$5,300(PVIFA
12%,5
) +
($$13,000/1.12
5
) =
–
$$381,728.76
EAC =
–
$$381,728.76 /
(PVIFA
12%,5
) =
–
$$105,895.27
The two milling machines have unequal
lives, so they can only be compared by expressing
both on an equivalent annual basis,
which is what the EAC method does. Thus, you
prefer the
Techron II because it has
the lower (less negative) annual cost.
17. If we are trying to decide between
two projects that will not be replaced when they
wear
out, the proper capital budgeting
method to use is NPV. Both projects only have
costs
associated with them, not sales,
so we will use these to calculate the NPV of each
project.
Using the tax shield approach
to calculate the OCF, the NPV of System A is:
OCF
A
=
–
$$105,000(1
–
0.34) + 0.34($$360,000/4) =
–
$$38,700
NPV
A
=
–
$$360,000
–
$$38,700(PVIFA
11%,4
) =
–
$$480,064.65
And
the NPV of System B is:
OCF
B
=
–
$$65,000(1
–
0.34) + 0.34($$480,000/6) =
–
$$15,700
NPV
B
=
–
$$480,000
–
$$15,700(PVIFA
11%,6
) =
–
$$546,419.44
If
the system will not be replaced when it wears out,
then System A should be chosen,
because
it has the less negative NPV.
18. When
we are dealing with nominal cash flows, we must be
careful to discount cash flows
at the
nominal interest rate, and we must discount real
cash flows using the real interest rate.
Project A‘s cash flows are in real
terms, so we need to find the real interest rate.
Using the
Fisher equation, the real
interest rate is:
1 +
R
= (1 +
r
)(1 +
h
)
1.15 = (1 +
r
)(1
+ .04)
r
= .1058 or
10.58%
So, the NPV of Project A‘s real
cash flows, discounting at the real interest rate,
is:
NPV =
–
$$50,000 + $$30,000 / 1.1058
+ $$25,000 / 1.1058
⌒
2 +
$$20,000 / 1.1058
⌒
3 =
$$12,368.89
Project B‘s cash flow are
in nominal terms, so the NPV discounted at
the
nominal interest rate
is:
NPV =
–
$$65,000 + $$29,000 / 1.15 +
$$38,000 / 1.1
5
⌒
2
+ $$41,000 /
1.1
5
⌒
3
= $$15,909.02
We
should accept Project B if the projects are
mutually exclusive since it has the highest NPV.
19.
To determine the value
of a firm, we can sim
ply find the
present value of the firm‘s future
cash
flows. No depreciation is given, so we can assume
depreciation is zero. Using the tax
shield approach, we can find the
present value of the aftertax revenues, and the
present value
of the aftertax costs.
The required return, growth rates, price, and
costs are all given in real
terms.
Subtracting the costs from the revenues will give
us the value of the firm‘s cash flows.
We must calculate the present value of
each separately since each is growing at a
different
rate. First, we will find the
present value of the revenues. The revenues in
year 1 will be the
number of bottles
sold, times the price per bottle, or:
Aftertax revenue in year 1 in real
terms = (2,100,000 ×
$$1.25)(1
–
0.34) = $$1,732,500
Revenues will grow at six percent per
year in real terms forever. Apply the growing
perpetuity formula, we find the present
value of the revenues is:
PV of
revenues = C
1
/
(
R
–
g
)
PV
of revenues = $$1,732,500 / (0.10
–
0.06) = $$43,312,500
The real aftertax costs in year 1 will
be:
Aftertax costs in year
1 in real terms = (2,100,000 ×
$$0.75)(1
–
0.34) = $$1,039,500
Costs will grow at five
percent per year in real terms forever. Applying
the growing
perpetuity formula, we find
the present value of the costs is:
PV of costs = C
1
/ (
R
–
g
)
PV
of costs = $$1,039,500 / (0.10
–
0.05) = $$20,790,000
Now we can find the value
of the firm, which is:
Value of the firm = PV of revenues
–
PV of costs
Value of the firm = $$43,312,500
–
20,790,000 = $$22,522,500
20.
(
1
)
Purchase new machine:
总成本:
Purchase new
–
$$12,000,000
machine
Net
working capital
–
250,000
Total
–
$$12,250,000
经营性现金流:
Operating
expense
$$4,500,000
Depreciation
3,000,000
EBT
$$1,500,000
Taxes
585,000
Net income
$$915,000
OCF
$$3,915,000
NPV =
–
$$12,250,000 +
$$3,915,000(PVIFA
10%,4
) +
$$500,000 / 1.1
0
⌒
4
= $$330,776.59
And the IRR
is:
0 =
–
$$12,250,000 +
$$3,915,000(PVIFA
IRR,4
) +
$$250,000 / (1 +
IRR
)
⌒
4
IRR = 11.23%
(
p>
2
)
Keep old machine:
总成本:
Keep machine
–
$$3,000,000
Taxes
–
390,000
Total
–
$$3,390,000
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