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Statement of William H. Overholt1
Asia Policy Chair
Director,
Center for Asia Pacific Policy
The RAND
Corporation
Before the U.S.-China
Economic and Security Review
Commission
May 19, 2005
Summary
China
has
transformed
itself
from
the
world’s
greatest
opponent of
Globalization
and
greatest
disrupter
of
the
global
institutions we
created,
into
a
committed
member
of
those
institutions
and
advocate
of
globalization.
It
is
now
a
far
more
open
economy
than
Japan
and
it
is
globalizing
its
institutions to a degree
not seen in a big country since Meiji
Japan.
Adoption
of
the
rule
of
law,
of
commitment
to
competition,
of
widespread
use
of
English,
of
foreign
education, and of
many foreign laws and institutions are not
just updating Chinese institutions but
transforming Chinese
civilization.
中国已经由以前世界上最大的全球化反对国和全球各机构的打扰者转
变成
全球化的提倡者和那些机构坚定的成员国之一。
它现在是一个远比
日本开放的经济体，并且正在使国内机构全球化，达到一个从日本明治
时期就从未出现
过的高度。
采取法制手段，
致力于竞争，
广泛使用英语，
实行国外教育和众多国外法律制度，这些不仅仅是在改革中国体制，而
是在重塑中华文明。
All
of
China’s
economic
successes
are
associated
with
liberalization
and
globalization
and
each
aspect
of
globalization has brought
China further successes. Never in
world
history
have
so
many
workers
improved
their
standards
of
living
so
rapidly.
Thus
popular
support
for
globalization
is
greater
than
in
Japan,
where
postwar
recovery occurred in
a highly managed economy, or with the
former
Soviet
Union,
where
shock
therapy
traumatized
society.
In
consequence,
China
has
effectively
become
an
ally of U.S. and
Southeast Asian promotion of freer trade and
investment than is acceptable to Japan,
India and Brazil.
中国所有经济上的成就都离不开自由化和全球化
，
而全球化的每个
方面又为中国带来更多的成就。
可以说在世界史上，
从来没有这么
多工人曾如此迅速
地提高他们的生活水平。
所以，
对全球化的欢迎
程度和拥护度高于日本，
战后日本的经济复苏产生于高度管理的体
制；或者和前苏联相比，那里动荡使社会元气大伤。于是，中国主
动成为美国
和东南亚的盟国，
一起推动更加自由的贸易和投资，
这
些都超过了日本、印度和巴西的接受范围。
The
opinions
and
conclusions
expressed
in
this
testimony
are
the
author’s
alone
and
should
not
be
interpreted
as
representing
those
of
RAND
or
any
of
the
sponsors
of
its
research.
This
product
is
part
of
the
RAND
Corporation
testimony
series.
RAND
testimonies
record
testimony
presented by RAND
associates to federal, state, or local
legislative committees; government-
appointed commissions
and
panels;
and
private
review
and
oversight
bodies.
The
RAND
Corporation
is
a
nonprofit
research
organization
providing
objective
analysis
and
effective
solutions
that
address the challenges facing the
public and private sectors
around
the
world.
RAND’s
publications
do
not
necessarily
reflect the opinions of its research
clients and sponsors.
Nonetheless,
rapid
Chinese
globalization
has
required
stressful
adjustments.
State
enterprise
employment
has
declined
by
44
million.
China
has
lost
25
million
manufacturing
jobs.
125
car
companies
are
expected
to
consolidate rapidly into 3 to 6.
在这张证词中表述的观点和结论都是作者一家之言，
不应该被理解
为代表
Rand
或者这个研究的赞助商们。
这个产品是
Rand
公司证
< br>词系列的一部分。
Rand
的证词记录了由
Rand
企业联合出示的证
词，它分别呈递给联邦、
州以及当地立法委员会，政府指定的佣金
事务委员会，私人审查和监管单位。
Rand
法人是一个非营利研究
组织，
专门为面临挑战的全球公、
私部门提供客观分析和有效解决
方法。
Rand
的出版物不一定反映内部研究委托方和
赞助者的观点。
但是，
中国快速发展的全球化过程要求紧张的调
整。
国有企业的就
业人数下降了
440
0
万。
中国已经失去了
2500
制造业的工作，
125
家汽车公司将会快速合
并成
3-6
家。
China’s globalization successes are
profoundly influencing
its neighbors.
India has learned from China the advantages
of
a
more
open
economy.
Asians
schooled
in
antipathy
to
foreign
investment
and
Latin
Americans
with
protectionist
traditions
are
going
to
have
to
be
more
open
to
foreign
investment and less
dependent on loans in order to compete
with
China.
This
will
transform
third
world
strategies
of
development and create broader global
opportunities for our
companies.
中国全球化成就正深远地影响着领国。
印度从中国学习到一个更加
开放经济体的优势。
被培养成憎恶外国投资的亚洲人和有着地方保
护主义传统的拉丁美人正学着必须更加开放地对待外国投资并且
不依赖于
借贷来和中国竞争。
这将会转变第三世界发展的策略并为
我们的
公司提供更广阔的全球机会。
Contrary
to
early
fears,
China’s
rise
has
stimulated
neighbors’
trade
and
foreign
investment
rather
than
depriving them.
Indee
d China’s recent growth spurt
revived
Japan’s economy and
saved key neighbors from recession,
possibly averting a dangerous global
downturn.
和早前的害怕相反，
中国崛起已经刺激而
不是剥夺了邻国的贸易和
外国投资。
事实上中国近年来经济急剧
增长使日本经济复苏并且拯
救了主要邻国免于经济衰退，
可以说
避免了一场危险的全球经济衰
退。
Chinese
growth
has
brought
American
companies
new
markets.
The
flow
of
profits
from
China
to
the
U.S.
is
as
disproportionate as the
flow of goods. Inexpensive products
have
substantially
improved
the
living
standards
of
poorer
Americans.
Inexpensive
Chinese
goods
and
Chinese
financing of our
deficit have kept U.S. inflation and interest
rates
down
and
prolonged
our
economic
booms.
At
the
same
time,
it
has
caused
trade
deficits
and
social
adjustments.
Chinese
misappropriation
of
intellectual
property creates losses for many of our
companies. A manic
construction and
transportation boom has raised
global raw materials prices, to the
great benefit of producers
and a great
cost to consumers.
中国的经济增长也为美国公司带来了新的市场
，
从中国流向美国的
利润也和货品一样不协调。
廉价的商品在提高了美国下层的物质生
活。
廉价的中国
商品和赤字，
使美国保持通货膨胀率和利率的下降，
使经济持续
增长。同时，它也导致贸易赤字和社会调整。中国不合
理的知识产权为我们的很多公司造
成了损失。
建设热和交通热使全
球原材料价格上涨，使生产商受
利并使消费者遭受损失。
China’s
success
is one of the most important
developments
of
modern
history,
but
projecting
from
current
growth
to
Chinese global dominance or threats to
our way of life is just
wrong. Unlike
the old Soviet Union, reformist China does not
seek
to
alter
any
other
country’s
way
of
life.
Its
economy
faces world
history’s
most
severe
combination
of
banking,
urbanization
and
employment
challenges,
and
by
2020
a
demographic squeeze that will have few
workers supporting
many
dependents.
The
best
outcome
for
us
would
be
a
China that is eventually
like Japan, prosperous, winning in
some
sectors, losing in others. Signs that China is
making
rapid
progress
in
that
direction
should
be
welcomed
,
not
feared.
中国的成功是现代史最重要的发展之一，
但是从中国目前的发展就
认为中国会统治全世界或者会为我们的生活
方式造成威胁是完全
错误的。
不像之前的苏联，
改革者中国并不寻求改变其他国家的生
活方式。它的经济面临着世界史上最剧烈
的结合
----
银行业、城市
化和就业
的挑战，并且在
2020
年以前，人口统计学上的拥挤将会
使更少的工人支撑这么多的家庭。
最好的结果就是
< br>---
中国最终会像
日本一样，繁荣，并在某些领域赢得
一席之地，或输给别人。中国
正在朝着那个方向飞速进步应该受到我们的欢迎而不是恐惧
。
China and Globalization
Before
reform,
China
was
the
world’s
most
important
opponent
of
globalization.
It
had
an
autarkic
economy.
It
opposed
the
global
economic
order.
It
opposed
the
global
political order and the major global
institutions such as the
IMF and the
World Bank. It believed that global disorder was
a
good
thing,
and
under
Mao
Zedong
it
actively
promoted
disorder
throughout
the
world,
including
promotion
of
insurgencies in most of
China’s neighbors, in much of Africa
and Latin America, and even in our
universities.
Accompanying
foreign
policy
disaffection
was
domestic
cultural despair on
a scale the world has seldom witnessed.
In the Cultural Revolution,
1966-
1976, China’s students
and
others,
under
the
guidance
of
Mao
Zedong’s
peasant
chiliasm,
humiliated
a
majority
of
senior
government
and
party
leaders,
attacked
the
country’s
major
educational,
social
and political
institutions, destroyed much of China’s
cultural heritage, and in general
tried to smash the country’s
establishment.
For
two
centuries
Chinese
had
tried
a
range
of
ways
–
socialism,
capitalism,
empire,
republic,
warlords,
religious
fundamentalism,
and
others.
All
failed.
Alienation
was
so
severe
that,
along
with
students,
much
of
the
country
accepted
that
the
world
economic
and
political
order,
and
the
Chinese economic
and
political
order, were so
stacked
against
them
that
any
path
to
success
had
to
start
with
destruction of the
existing order.
The
Cultural Revolution was actually just one small
episode
in
the
problems
that
Chinese
impoverishment
and
political
division
created
for
the
world
and
specifically
for
us.
Had
China been prosperous and unified
throughout the twentieth
century,
we
would
have
had
European
War
II
rather
than
World War II and World War I would have
been quite
different.
China
would
have
been
able
to
deter
or
defeat
Japanese aggression. The cost of those
conflicts to the U.S.
would have been
radically smaller because Pearl Harbor and
much else would not have happened. We
and the world, not
to
speak
of
a
billion
Chinese
citizens,
have
paid
a
horrible
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