Why you think you're right

So

I'd

like

you

to

imagine

for

a

moment

that

you're

a

soldier

in

the

heat

of

battle.

Maybe

you're

a

Roman

foot

soldier

or

a

medieval

archer

or

maybe

you're

a

Zulu

warrior. Regardless

of

your time and place, there are some things

that are constant.

Your

adrenaline

is

elevated,

and

your

actions

are

stemming

from

these

deeply

ingrained reflexes, reflexes rooted in a need to protect yourself and your side and to

defeat the enemy.

So now, I'd like

you to imagine playing a very different role, that of the scout.

The

scout's job is not to attack or defend. The scout's job is to understand. The scout is the

one going out, mapping the terrain, identifying potential obstacles. And the scout may

hope

to

learn

that,

say,

there's

a

bridge

in

a

convenient

location

across

a

river.

But

above all, the scout wants to know what's really there, as accurately as possible. And

in a real, actual army, both the soldier and the scout are essential. But you can also

think

of

each

of

these

roles

as

a

mindset

--

a

metaphor

for

how

all

of

us

process

information and ideas in our daily lives. What I'm going to argue today is that having

good judgment, making accurate predictions, making good decisions, is mostly about

which mindset you're in.

To

illustrate

these

mindsets

in

action,

I'm

going

to

take

you

back

to

19th- century

France,

where

this

innocuous-looking

piece

of

paper

launched

one

of

the

biggest

political

scandals

in

history.

It

was

discovered

in

1894

by

officers

in

the

French

general

staff.

It

was

torn

up

in

a

wastepaper

basket,

but

when

they

pieced

it

back

together, they discovered that someone in their ranks had been selling military secrets

to Germany.

So they launched a big investigation, and their suspicions quickly converged on this

man,

Alfred

Dreyfus.

He

had

a

sterling

record,

no

past

history

of

wrongdoing,

no

motive as far as they could tell. But Dreyfus was the only Jewish officer at that rank

in the army, and unfortunately at this time, the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.

They compared Dreyfus's handwriting to that on the memo and concluded that it was

a

match,

even

though

outside

professional

handwriting

experts

were

much

less

confident

in

the

similarity,

but

never

mind

that.

They

went

and

searched

Dreyfus's

apartment, looking for any signs of espionage. They went through his files, and they

didn't find anything. This just convinced them more that Dreyfus was not only guilty,

but sneaky as well, because clearly he had hidden all of the evidence before they had

managed to get to it.

Next, they went and looked through his personal history for any incriminating details.

They talked to his teachers, they found that he had studied foreign languages in school,

which clearly showed a desire to conspire with foreign governments later in life. His

teachers

also

said

that

Dreyfus

was

known

for

having

a

good

memory,

which

was

highly suspicious, right? You know, because a spy has to remember a lot of things.

So the case went to trial, and Dreyfus was found guilty. Afterwards, they took him out

into this public square and ritualistically tore his insignia from his uniform and broke

his

sword

in

two.

This

was

called

the

Degradation

of

Dreyfus.

And

they

sentenced

him to life imprisonment on the aptly named Devil's Island, which is this barren rock

off the coast of South America. So there he went, and there he spent his days alone,

writing letters and letters to the French government begging them to reopen his case