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What have been the trends and what are the
prospects for European transport
systems?
A It is
difficult to conceive of
vigorous economic
growth
without
an
efficient transport system.
Although
modern information technologies can
reduce
the demand for
physical transport by
facilitating
teleworking and
teleservices, the
requirement for
transport continues to increase. There
are two key factors behind this trend.
For passenger
transport, the
determining factor is the spectacular
growth in car use. The number of cars
on European
Union (EU)
roads
saw an increase of three million
cars each year from 1990 to
2010
, and in the next
decade
the EU will see a
further substantial
increase
in its fleet.
(Facts: The
rapid growth
of car transport even with
deve. Of tech)
B As far as goods transport is
concerned, growth
is
due
to a large extent to
changes in the European
economy and its
system of production. In the last 20
years, as
internal frontiers
have been abolished
, the
EU
has moved from a
'stock' economy to a
'flow'
economy. This
phenomenon has been emphasised by
the
relocation
of
soma industries, particularly those
which are
labour intensive,
to reduce production
costs
,
even though the production site
is
hundreds
or even thousands of
kilometres away from
the final
assembly plant or away from users.
(Facts:
Changes
affecting the
distances goods may be
transferred
)
C
The strong economic growth expected in countries
which are
candidates for
entry to the EU
will also
increase transport flows
,
in particular road haulage
traffic
. In 1998, some of
these countries already
exported more
than twice their 1990 volumes and
imported more than five times their
1990 volumes.
And although many
candidate countries inherited a
transport system which encourages rail,
the
distribution between modes has
tipped sharply in
favour of road
transport since the 1990s. Between
1990
and 1998, road haulage increased by 19. 4%,
while during the same period rail
haulage
decreased by 43. 5%, although-
and this could benefit
the enlarged EU-
it is still on average at a much
higher
level than in existing member states.
(Facts: Transport trends in
countries awaiting EU
admission
)
D However a new
imperative
-sustainable
development-offers an opportunity for
adapting
the EU's common transport
policy.
This objective
,
agreed by the Gothenburg European
Council, has to
be achieved by
integrating environmental
considerations into Community policies,
and
shifting the balance between modes
of transport lies
ideally be in place
in 30 years' time, that is by 2040.
(Example: A fresh and important long-
term
goal
of rebalance)
E In 1998, energy
consumption in the transport sector
was
to blame for 28% of
emissions of
CO2
the
leading greenhouse
gas. According to the latest
estimates,
if nothing is done to reverse the traffic
growth trend. C02 emissions from
transport can be
expected to increase
by around 50% to 1, 113 billion
tonnes
by 2020, compared with the 739 billion
tonnes recorded in 1990. once again,
road transport is
the main
culprit
since it alone accounts for 84%
of
the C02 emissions attributable to
transport. Using
alternative fuels and
improving energy efficiency is
thus
both an ecological necessity and a
technological challenge.
(Facts and Data: The
environment cost
of road transport)
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