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Housing Is Still Underpriced
被低估的房价
After
rising at a quick pace for the last five years,
housing prices are now at a plateau
according to some. Housing bubble
believers frequently point to the fact that
housing prices
have run up while rents
have remained relatively flat, and claim that the
disparity must be
corrected
by
a decline in housing
prices.
Analyzing
the purchase
price
of a
given home
against
the price it fetches
in rent though shows that housing still remains a
great investment with
much room to the
upside
. In fact, the P/E ratio of
housing is currently below most stocks
when it should be higher due to
a decreased risk factor. Even in the
most
overpriced markets,
the
price of housing is backed up by solid
fundamentals.
过去五年，
房价持续快速增长，
而如今，
房价处于稳定期。
那些坚信会
出现房地
产泡沫人往往会指出这样一个事实：即使房租保持相对平稳，房价依旧会高涨。
同时，
他们坚信，
房价下跌可以阻止这
一矛盾。
通过分析对比给定的房屋售价与
其全部租金，
购房仁是最好的投资，
因为房价有很大的上升空间。
实际上，
购房
的市盈率本应随着投资风险降低而增高，
而如今的市盈率却低于许多股票价。
尽
管高
估了楼市，但房价有坚固的基础作为后盾。
Price /
Earnings Ratio
市盈率
Stocks are traditionally valued based
upon their earnings. The most common metric for
evaluating stocks is the Price /
Earnings ratio (P/E). P/E takes the current market
price of a
stock and divides it by the
share
of yearly earnings
that
single
share
represents. For example,
MSFT
(Microsoft) currently trades at 27
with
earnings per share
of $$1.18. This
computes to a
P/E ratio of
about
22.9.
P/E
ratios of
established DOW companies are
typically in the mid 20s.
我们
往往根据股票赢利估算股票价格。
估算股票价格最常见的度量标准就是市盈
率。
市盈率是一只股票现在的市场价格，
除以按照一
个季度（年度）
这算的年收
益。
比如微
软公司，
股价
27
，
< br>每股收益
1.18
美元。
这样推
算出的市盈率为
22.9
。
二十世纪二
十年代中期陶式化工公司的市盈率非常具有代表性。
Apples to Apples
“一对一”的可比性
We can
use a similar metric for evaluating housing
prices. A typical house in the Bay Area
sells for $$700,000 and can be rented
for about $$2,800 per month. Yearly, this sums to
$$33,600 collected in rent and a P/E of
20.8. The P/E ratio of houses in even the most
expensive of markets is currently very
close to 20. Many mid-priced markets have P/E
ratios
closer to 15.
我们可以用相似
的衡量标准来估算房价。一幢在海湾地区的标准房屋，售价
700,000
美元，每月租金为
2,800
美元。这撞房屋一年的
租金累计算起来为
33,600
美元，市盈率为
20.8
。即使房屋在价格最高的
时候，它的市盈率也
接近
20
。许多中低价位的楼市，市盈率接近
< br>15
。
Using P/E,
it is clear that housing is not overvalued
compared with stocks. A dollar invested
in the housing market today returns
more each year than a dollar invested in MSFT.
Clearly
if a
bubble exists in the housing market then there
must also exist a bubble in the stock
market. Do those that advocate the
existence of the housing bubble also claim that a
stock
market bubble currently exists? <
/p>
通过市盈率，
我们可以清楚的看到，
和股
票相比，
房市并没被高估。
与投资到微
软公司的一美元相比，
如今每年投资到房市的一美元获得的回报会更多。
显而易
见的是，
如果房地产市场存在泡沫，
那么，
股市肯定也存在泡沫。
是否那些坚信
房地产泡沫的人也相信股市中存在泡沫呢？
Higher P/E for Housing
更高的房市市盈率
Housing
trading at a discount to stocks represents a great
opportunity for homebuyers
because
based on fundamentals, housing prices should
command a higher P/E than stocks.
Traditionally, solid
established companies have commanded
a higher P/E ratio because there
is less earnings risk with those
companies. Microsoft is much less likely to go
bankrupt
tomorrow or drop in price than
the latest .com startup, so investors are willing
to pay more
for MSFT.
对于购房者来
说，
股市中折价销售的房屋是一个很大的商机，
因为按照基本面
计
算，
房价比股价的市盈率更高。
传统
意义上说，
可靠的已成立公司需要更高的市
盈率，
这样，
这些公司的收益风险就会减少。
微软公司近期
几乎不可能破产或降
价。因此，投资者十分愿意投资微软。
Housing is a more solid and less risky
investment than even the least risky of stocks.
Rent
prices (
earnings)
fluctuate very little when compared with corporate
earnings. In addition,
housing prices
fluctuate much less than stock prices.
This remains
true even in
the wildest
housing bubble dreams of
bubbleheads. In the stock market, equity can drop
20% overnight
when
a company
issues
a poor
earnings
report
or the market crashes. Housing
will never drop
20%, not
even in a single year, bubble or not. All of these
facts mean that investors should
value
housing at a greater earnings multiple than
stocks, meaning housing currently
represents a great investment value.
与股市中风险最小的股票投资相比，房价更加稳固，更少风险。与公司收益相比，租金（收益
）波动更小。
此外，房价的波动比股票价格波动小得多。尽管房地产泡沫幻想如此狂热，
如此愚蠢，房价波动也很小。
在股市中，
当某家公司发布了糟糕
的收益消息，
或者市场倒闭，
股票价格会一夜间骤降
20%
。
而在房产业，
无
论是否出现了房地产泡沫，房价都不会下降
20%
。这一切都说
明了，投资者通常认为，投资房地产比投
资股票的收益多几倍。这意味着，房产业如今具
有很大的投资价值。
Now let’s
g
et back to the earnings side of
housing
–
rent prices. Rents
have been relatively
flat in recent
years, and doomsayers claim that this indicates
housing prices must fall. I see
it as
just the
opposite
–
rent prices
will be forced
upward, which
will lead housing prices to rise
even more.
现在，让我们回到房地产收益方面的话
题
---
租金。近几年来，租金相对稳定，一些预言家便推测，
房价一
定会下降。我个人却持相反观点，我认为房租会上涨，这也会推动房价的进一步提
高。
In conclusion, housing is
under priced and has much room to the upside when
compared to
stocks.
Five
years ago
housing was ridiculously
under priced, and today housing is still
moderately under priced. Sitting
around
waiting for housing
prices to return to
bargain levels
as they were in 2000 is like waiting
for GOOG to drop back down to 20: It’s not going
to
happen, you will be waiting and
renting forever.
总之，与股票相比，房价被低估了，并且它有很大
的上升空间。五年前，房价实在是被低估了，如今，房
价任有些被低估。
坐等房价下降到很廉价完全就像人们在
2000
年的时
候等待谷歌公司股票降到
20
；
这是<
/p>
完全不可能发生的，你将会等已辈子，租一辈子的房子。
The Housing Bubble Mentality
房产泡沫思想
A fit of
media-induced hysteria has struck many normally
rational Americans. According to
those
who
believe in
the housing bubble, the
sky
is falling, the seas are melting away,
and the
world is about to
end yesterday. Bubbleheads claim to have analyzed
the housing market
with a sharp eye and
reached an apparently logical conclusion that
growth is unsustainable.
How can two
sets of people look at the same facts and reach
conclusions that are at a direct
opposite?
一些以媒体为导向的广告使许多理性的美
国人变得不理智了。
按照那些相信房地
产泡沫的人的想法，
天会塌下来，
蓝天会消失，
将会出现世界末
日。
一些蠢人说，
他们已经用最敏锐的眼光研究了房地产市场，
并且得出了一个很合理的结论，
那
就是
，
房价上涨理论是不成立的。
面对同样的事实，
两拨人看问题所得出的结论
怎么会如此不同呢？
The answer lies in the human condition
of gullibility. Why did people buy Nasdaq dogs at
the
height of the dotcom bubble? Why
did those same people sell at the bottom in a
panic right
after 9/11? Bubbleheads
would have you believe that they are the smart
crowd this time
around. In fact, the
exact opposite is true. The
people negative on housing
today are the ones
who
bought CMGI, CSCO, INSP, and hundreds of other
speculative junk stocks right before
the market crash in early 2000.
这就是因为人们亲信。
为什么人们在
互联网产业出现极度泡沫的时候购买那斯达
康？为什么
9.11
事件之后，人们做出相同的事，那就是疯狂的卖出股票？那些
愚
蠢的人肯定认为在此时此刻，
自己是最聪明的。
事实上，
与他们相反的观点才
是真正正确的。如今那些否定房地产的人，早在<
/p>
2000
年股市崩盘前，购买了
CMGI
, CSCO, INSP
，还有其他投机的垃圾股。
What
was the prevailing
attitude of
speculators
buying dotcom stocks before the
crash?
“Look
at
how much the market went up in the past, I better
buy because stocks are going up!”
Likewise, people sold after 9/11 for no
other reason than the fact that stocks had
declined in
recent past. Now we have
the media trying to tell us that housing is going
to decline in the
future because it
went up in the past.
投机者在股市崩盘前购买互联网股票时的
普遍心态是怎样的呢？
“让我们回顾一
下在过去股市的上升了多
少。
我最好买股票因为它肯定会上涨。”
同理可得，
人
们在
9.11
之后卖出
股票是没有任何原因的，
只是因为最近几年，
股市都在下跌。<
/p>
如今，媒体不断吹嘘，报道说，因为过去的房价是上涨的，所以，在未来，房价
将会下跌。
On the surface,
you might think the bubblehead argument is a
logical conclusion given the
above
recent events. What comes up must come down, and
what goes down must come up,
right?
WRONG. Investments
that
crash may never recover, and investments that rise
in value
rapidly may never come back
down to earth.
表面上看，根据最近的一些事件，那些蠢人的结论似乎
很合理。价格上升过后一定会下降，价格下跌之后
一定会提高？大错特错。那些已崩盘的
投资可能再也不会恢复，那些价格已快速上涨的投资可能再也不会
跌到低谷。
If you transported a bubblehead
back in time to the year 1988, he might decide
that shorting
MSFT (Microsoft) stock
would be a genius maneuver. After all, MSFT had
doubled several
times in the years
prior to 1988, so it was due for collapse. Fast
forward to 2006 though and
that
bubblehead is something like 3000% in the hole due
to his stupidity. So what went
wrong? <
/p>
如果你让那些蠢人穿越到
1988
年，他
们也许会认为把微软的股票全部卖空才是
明智的决定。毕竟，在
1988
年前，微软的股票已经几次都翻了两番，因此，它
肯定
会下跌。时间很快到了
2006
年，几乎
3000%
的人因为愚蠢而负债。又是哪
里出问题了呢？
The Rule of Bubbles
泡沫规则
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