-
9 13
德国法院批准欧洲纾困基金
German backing for ESM fund lifts
stocks
Risk assets enjoyed
another positive
德国最高法院批准欧洲新纾困基
session after
Germany
’
s highest court gave
金，消除了解决欧债危机道路上的一大
the
go-ahead
for
Europe
’
s
new
bailout
fund,
障碍，带动风险资产经历又一个价格上
removing
a
significant
obstacle
to
efforts
to
涨的交易日。
resolve
the region
’
s debt crisis.
But the initial wave of buying that
followed the news
–
which sent European
stocks to a 14-month high and the euro
to a
four-month
peak
above
$$1.29
–
subsequently
showed signs of fizzling out as the
grim
economic
reality
facing
the
region
continued
to cast a shadow
over the markets.
Nevertheless, there
was a palpable
sense of relief at the
decision by Germany
’
s
constitutional court to reject a petition
to
prevent
the
country
from
signing
up
to
the
European
Stability
Mechanism,
the
region
’
s
permanent financial rescue fund.
The court imposed conditions that were
less onerous than many had feared.
The
news
came
less
than
a
week
after
the
European
Central
Bank
triggered
a
strong
risk
rally
after announcing plans for unlimited
purchases
of
eurozone
countries
’
short-
term
bonds
–
a
programme dubbed outright
monetary
transactions (OMT).
“
We
think this [court ruling] could
prove
to be a turning point for the debt
crisis,
”
said Frank ?land Hanse
n,
senior
economist at Danske Bank.
“
The
ESM
and
the
ECB
’
s
OMT
are
seen
as
a reliable and sufficient
safety net. If
investors
see
no
need
to
test
the
safety
net,
the ECB may never even
have to activate the
OMT
programme.
The
ball
is
now
in
Spain
’
s
and
Italy
’
s courts. <
/p>
但是，由于欧元区严峻的经济现实
继续给市场蒙上阴影，上述消息
传出后
的最初一波买入潮——将欧洲股市推高
至
14
个月高位，亦将欧元汇率推高至
1
欧元兑
1.29
美元的四个月高位——随
后显示消退迹象。
然而，对于德国宪法法院驳回有
关
阻止该国参与欧洲稳定机制
(ESM)
的请
愿的判决，各方明显松了一口气。
ESM
是欧元区永久性的金融救助基金。
法院提出的条件不
如很多人此前
担心的那么苛刻。
不到
一周前，欧洲央行
(ECB)
曾引
发一
轮强劲的风险资产涨势。当时该机
构宣布相关计划，拟无限度购买欧元区
国家的短期债券，该计划称为“直接货
币交易”
(OM
T)
。
“我们认为这（法庭裁决）有
望成
为欧债危机的转折点，”丹麦丹斯克银
行
< br>(Danske Bank)
高级经济学家弗兰克?
厄兰德?汉森(Frank
?land Hansen)表
示。
“
ESM
和欧洲央行的
OMT
被视为可
靠且充足的安全网。如果投资者看不到
有必要去考验这个安全网，欧洲央行可
能永远都不需要启动
OM
T
计划。现在球
在西班牙和意大利脚下。
“
If they deliver the
planned fiscal
“如果这两个国家按计划实行了
tightening and
structural reforms, the debt
财政收紧和结构改革，欧债危机有望在
crisis
could end in a couple of
years.
”
两三年内结束。”
But
Jonathan Loynes at Capital
Economics
added a note of caution.
但是，凯投宏观
(Capital
E
conomics)
的乔纳森?洛尼斯
(Jonathan
Loynes)
发出告诫的声音。
“
The ESM and ECB can only
address one
“
ESM
和
欧洲央行只能应对危机的
symptom of the crisis
–
high borrowing
costs
–
rather
than the underlying causes
of
chronically weak growth and cripplingly
high
debt,
”
he
said.
“
Another
obstacle
has
been
negotiated, but the path ahead is far
from clear.
”
A
further
reason
for
uncertainty
in
the
markets
came from today
’
s meeting of
the
Federal
Reserve
’
s
policy-setting
Open
Market
Committee.
Kit
Juckes,
head
of
foreign
exchange
at
Soci<
/p>
é
t
é
G
é
n
é
rale,
said the market was
assuming
that
the
FOMC
would
agree
a
further
round of
quantitative easing with only the
timing in any doubt.
“
For the global risk rally,
the
temptation
is
to
conclude
that,
since
a
move
is
priced
in,
we
should
prepare
to
‘
buy
the
rumour,
sell
the
news
’
–
but
for
a
week
now,
we
have
‘
bought
the
news
’
with
gusto,
”
he
said.
“
Fighting
the euro/dollar rally and
the
associated moves higher by the Canadian
and Australian dollars, sterling and
the
Mexican peso
–
as well as gold
–
makes no
sense.
Equity indices will probably play
catch-up.
”
Indeed, the euro rose as high as
$$1.2936,
the
highest
since
May,
before
easing
back. The dollar
continued to sink ahead of
the
Fed
’
s
decision,
easing
per
cent
against
a basket of currencies.
another 0.2
一个症状，即举债成本偏高，而不能
解
决经济增长持续疲弱和债务沉重的根本
原因，”他表示。“如
今又一个障碍经
谈判消除了，
但未来的道路远非畅通。
”
市场不确定性的另一个来源是，美
联储
(Fed)
负责制定利率的联邦公开市
场委员会
(FOMC)
今日开会。
法国兴业银行
(Soci
é
t
é
G
é
n
é
rale)
< br>外汇策略主管基特?朱克斯
(Kit
Juckes)<
/p>
表示，市场猜测
FOMC
将在出台
新一轮定量宽松的问题上达成一致，目
前唯一不能确定的只是时机。<
/p>
“全球风险资产涨势让人不由得
出这样
结论，既然此举已被反映到价格
上，我们应当准备好‘在传言时买入，
< br>在新闻发布时抛出’，但一周来的情况
是，我们在‘新闻发布时’大举买入，”<
/p>
他表示。
“对抗欧元兑美元汇率的上涨
，以
及加拿大元、澳大利亚元、英镑以及墨
西哥比索，还有金价
的相应上涨是没有
意义的。股指很可能也会赶上。”
欧元一度涨至
1
欧元兑
1.2936
美
元，这是
5
月份以来的最高位，随后稍
有回落。美元在美联储作出决定前夕继
续下跌，
兑一篮子货币进一步走低
0.2%
。
译者
/
和风
穆迪：可能下调美国主权评级
Moody’s in threat to strip US of top
rating
Rating
agency Moody
’
s has
threatened to
downgrade the
US
’
s prized triple
A
credit rating if
Congress
fails to reach a deficit reduction deal,
raising the stakes in the fiscal debate
that lies at the
heart of the November
election.
Moody
’
s said
yesterday that it was
considering
joining its rival Standard &
Poor
’
s
–
which stripped
the US of its top rating last year
–
if a deal was
not reached by the end of the year.
The threat is likely to feed into
election
campaign concerns over the
state of the economy
and lift
Republican hopes of a boost for Barack
Obama
’
s
challenger, Mitt Romney, by focusing
attention on the size of the national
debt.
It also adds pressure
on lawmakers in
Congress to lay the
groundwork for critical
negotiations on
fiscal policy that will begin almost
immediately after the election on
November 6.
The comments
made clear that a deal to avert
the so-
called fiscal cliff
–
a series of tax
increases
and automatic spending cuts due in early
January
–
may not be enough to prevent a
downgrade, and that a broader agreement
to shrink
the
US
’
s debt pile over the
medium term would
need to be
crafted.
Budget negotiations
next year
“
will likely
determine the direction of the US
government
’
s
Aaa
rating
”
,
Moody
’
s said, adding that it
might cut
the
country
’
s rating to Aa1 if
the results were not
satisfactory
.
“
What
we
’
re looking for is a
downward trajectory of the debt over
the medium
评级机构穆迪
(Moody
’
s)
威胁称，
如果美国国会无法就减赤达成协议，就
可能调低美国看重的
Aaa
评级，这使处
于
1
1
月大选核心的财政辩论进一步增添
份量。
穆迪昨日表示，如果各方在年底之
前无法达成协议，就将
采取与其对手标
普
(S&P)
去年一样
的做法，
摘掉美国最高
评级的头衔。
这一威胁可能加剧竞选活动中人们
对于经济状况的担忧，将人们
的注意力
转移到国家债务的规模上，从而提振共
和党方面的希望
，即巴拉克?奥巴马
(Barack
Obama)
的竞选对手米特?罗姆尼
(Mitt
Romney)
将因此得分。
同时，
这也增加了国会议员的压力，
他们需要做好准备，在
11
月
6
日大选之
后立刻着手就财政政策问题开展关键的
谈判。
穆迪的言论表明，避免所谓“财政
悬崖”
（
1
月初将实施的一系列增税和自
动
减少开支的措施）的协议，或许不足
以让美国免遭降级，需要制定更广泛的
协议，以求在中期缩减美国的债务。
穆迪表示，明
年的预算谈判“很可
能会决定美国政府
Aaa
< br>评级的方向”
，
并
补充说，如果
结果无法令人满意，可能
会将美国的评级降到
Aa1
。
穆迪纽约的美
国主权评级首席分析师史蒂芬?海
斯
(Steven Hess)
说：
“
我们希望看到的是债
term,
”
said Steven Hess, lead analyst for the
US
sovereign rating at
Moody
’
s in New
Y
ork.
A
Moody
’
s downgrade
–
on top of
S&P
’
s move a year ago
–
would further
taint the
standing of US Treasury
securities as the world
’
s
purest risk-free asset.
The dollar fell broadly after the
warning,
while the euro touched a four-
month high. Reaction
in the stock and
credit markets was limited, but
analysts said a deterioration in the
country
’
s
finances and a potential rating
downgrade could
weigh on bond
prices.
Moody
’
s comments
came as Congress was
closing in on a
deal to fund the government for six
months, averting a federal shutdown
until at least
March 1 and allowing
lawmakers to return to their
districts
for campaigning.
务在中期进入下行轨道。
”
继标普去年的降级举措之后，穆迪
的降级会进一步冲击美国国债世界头号
零风险资产的地位。
穆迪发出警告后
，美元普遍下跌，
而欧元则上涨到了四个月以来的新高。
股市和
信贷市场的反应有限，但分析师
表示，美国财政状况的恶化以及潜在的
< br>降级可能会给债券价格带来压力。
穆迪作出此番评论之
际，美国国会
正接近达成协议，以便为政府提供六个
月的资金，
这一协议将保证联邦政府至
少能够支撑到
3
月
1
日，使得议员们可
以回到各自
选区开展竞选活动。
译者
/
王慧玲
9 .11
贸易数据突显中国经济疲弱
Trade numbers expose China weakness
Chinese imports fell in August while
exports
grew less than expected in the
latest sign of
weakness in the
world
’
s second-largest
economy.
Overall Chinese
imports dropped 2.6 per cent
in August
from a year earlier while exports
increased just 2.7 per cent.
The export growth was higher than
July
’
s 1
per cent
increase but far below the double-digit
growth rates
China
’
s export-driven
economy has
become accustomed to over
the past decade.
Much of the
weakness came from crisis-hit
Europe,
China
’
s biggest trading
partner, with
exports to the EU falling
12.7 per cent in August
from a year
earlier.
Exports to Japan
also disappointed, registering
a
decline of 6.7 per cent in August, while shipments
8
月份中国对日本出口下降
6.7%<
/p>
，
同样令人失望。与此同时，对美国出口
中国经济疲弱的主要原因是最大
贸易伙伴欧洲受到危机打击，
8
月份，
中国对欧盟出口同比下降
12.
7%
。
8
月
份，中国进口出现下降，出口
增幅也低于预期，这是全球第二大经济
体最新的疲弱迹象。
8
月份中国
进口总额同比下降
2.6%
，而出口增幅只有
< br>2.7%
。
出口增长高于
7
月份的
1%
，但
远
低于过去十年来中国出口拉动型经济已
经习惯的两位数增长率
。
to the US rebounded with 3
per cent growth,
compared with an
increase of just 0.6 per cent in
July.
Weakening
trade figures are a major concern
for
China, where export-oriented industries employ
an estimated 200m people and the
economy is
already expected to expand
at its slowest rate in 13
years.
At the
start of the year Beijing set a target of
10 per cent growth in overall trade but
with
year-to-date growth of just 6.2
per cent by the end of
August that
target looks unrealistic.
Other economic indicators released on
Sunday
showed a general slowdown in the
Chinese economy
had continued into
August. Data pointed to falling
factory
output and investment, and rising
inflation.
“
China
’
s trade figures and
domestic
indicators released yesterday
[Sunday] extended the
recent feebleness
in August,
”
said
Liu Ligang, chief
China economist at
ANZ.
“
The Chinese
authorities
will probably expand tax
rebates for exporters in
labour-
intensive industries.
”
With the economy clearly slowing more
than
expected the government has taken
some steps to
prop up growth by
approving a number of new
infrastructure projects across the
country
.
But most
analysts believe Beijing must do
more
to stop the economic slide which may see the
economy grow less than the 7.5 per cent
annual
target set by the government at
the start of the year.
出现反弹，同比增长
3%
，而
< br>7
月份增
长率只有
0.6%
。
不断趋弱的贸易数据已成为中国
的一大关切，中国的出口产业雇佣大约
2
亿人
，
预计中国经济增速将降到
13
年
以来的最低水平。
今年初，
中国政府设定的整体贸易
增长目标为
10%
，
但今年截止到
8
月末
，
贸易增幅只达到
6.2%
，
10%
的目标似乎
已经不太现实。
周日发布的其他经济数据显示，
8
月份中国整体经济继续放缓。
数据表明，
工业产出和投
资增长放缓，通胀上扬。
澳新银行
(
ANZ)
大中华区首席经济
学家刘利刚说：
“
中国的贸易数据和昨天
（周日）发布的国内指标表明，近
期的
疲弱形势在
8
月份延续。中国当局
可能
将拓大劳动力密集产业的出口退税范
围。
< br>”
中国经济放慢的步伐显然已经超
出预期，政府已经批准全国多项新的基
础设施建设项目，采取一些措施提高经
济增速。
但大多数分析师认为，
中国政府需
要采取更多行动以阻止经济下滑，今年
经济增速可能会低于年初政府制定的
7.5%
的增长目标。
译者
/
王慧玲
中国经济低迷波及消费相关行业
9.10Cash woes show spread of China
downturn
China
’
s downturn
is spreading to the sectors
and
companies that were expected to withstand the
中国的低迷形势正在波及那些本来
预
期能够承受整体经济放缓、推动地区
slowdown and drive
growth in the region.
Financial Times analysis shows that a
third of
publicly listed Chinese
companies suffered cash
outflows in the
quarter to the end of June as the
combined effect of the slowdown in
exports, a
build-up in stocks and
tightening local government
finances
begins to bite.
Cash
balances at a tenth of 1,700 companies
analysed by the FT using data from S&P
Capital IQ
have turned negative in the
past two quarters.
For a
further 6 per cent of companies that
normally report an outflow, the
outflows were
worse than last
year.
The results highlight
that even the companies
that are
expected to help rebalance China away
from an investment-driven economy
–
such as
consumer and retail businesses,
healthcare,
pharmaceuticals and
electronics companies
–
are
being affected by the
slowdown, along with
construction, real
estate, industrial machinery and
chemicals.
Increasing numbers of hedge funds and
analysts are looking closely at
cashflow data as
sustained poor cash
flows would have a big impact
on
companies
’
ability to service their debt and
hence on the health of
China
’
s banking
sector.
There are some signs
that the cash crunch has
already been
felt by banks during the first half of
the year.
While
non-performing loans grew by just 1
per
cent across the sector, overdue loans leapt by 29
per cent, according to Mike Werner of
Bernstein
Research in Hong
Kong.
Among the 574
companies with negative
cashflow from
operating activities in the FT
analysis, the results of 175
–
or 30 per cent
–
appeared to be
non-seasonal because patterns over
the
past two quarters were completely different
增长的行业和企业。
英国《金融时报
》分析显示，三分
之一的中国上市公司在截止
6
月底的季
度遭受现金流出，出口减速、库存积压，
以及
地方政府财政收紧等各种因素综合
在一起，开始形成打击。
<
/p>
在
FT
使用标普资本智商
(S&P
Capital IQ)
的数据进行分析的
1700
家公
司中，有十分之一的公司
在过去两个季
度里现金余额转为负值。
对通常报告现金流出的另外
6%
企
业
而言，流出情况比去年更加严重。
这些结果突显出，即便是外
界本来
预期将帮助中国经济迈向再平衡、减轻
对投资依赖的公司
（如消费品和零售企
业、医疗保健、医药和电子产品企业）
也正
受到整体经济放缓的影响，与建筑、
房地产、工业机械和化工行业陷于同样
的境地。
目前有越来越多的对冲基金和分析
师密切关注现金流数据，因为持续表现
不佳的现金流将给企业的偿债能
力（乃
至中国的银行业）带来重大冲击。
一些迹象显示，银行已在今年上半
年感受到企业现金紧张。
伯恩斯坦研究公司
(Bernstein
Research)
驻香港分析师麦克?沃纳
(Mike
Werner)
指出，尽管整个银行业的不良贷
款仅增加
1%
，但逾期贷款飙升
29%
。
在
FT
进行的分析中，在
574
家经<
/p>
营活动产生负数现金流的企业中，
175
家
企业（占
30%
）的结果似乎不是季
节性
的，因为过去两个季度的情况似乎与一
from
those seen in the periods a year
before.
Another 18 per cent
showed some seasonal
similarity with
last year, but their results were
worse
over the first half of this year. Sixty-nine of
the 574 had negative cashflow for both
of the past
two quarters.
9.9
年前完全不同。
在这
574
家企业中，还有
18%
的企
业显示出与去年相似的季节性，但它们
在今年上半年的结果
更加糟糕。有
69
家
在过去两个季度均
出现负数的现金流。
译者
/
和风
欧洲央行：将动用无限火力拯救欧元
ECB signals resolve to save euro
The European Central Bank
yesterday sent
markets its strongest
signal yet that it would deploy
unlimited monetary firepower to save
the single
currency.
Mario Draghi, the central
bank
’
s Italian
president, said that the ECB would
offer to
purchase eurozone
countries
’
short-
term bonds in
the secondary market in a
programme dubbed
outright monetary
transactions, or OMT, that would
address
“
distortions in financial
markets
”
.
But he warned that any attempt to tame
Europe
’
s
distressed sovereign debt markets would
come with the kind of tough fiscal and
structural
reform conditions that
Greece, Ireland and Portugal
faced when
they were bailed out.
“
This is your
bazooka,
”
Jos
é
Angel Gurr
í
a,
secretary-general of the Organisation for
Economic Co-operation and Development
told the
Financial Times.
“
This is the muscle and the
firepower which
is quite awesome
because effectively, theoretically,
it
’
s
unlimited.
”
Spain
and Italy would have to apply to
Europe
’
s rescue
funds for help before the ECB
would
trigger its bond-buying programme. Neither
欧洲央行意大利籍行长马里奥?德
拉吉
(Mario
Draghi)
表示，欧洲央行将按
照一项称为“直接货币交易
”
(Outright
Monetary
Transactions, OMT)
的计划，在
二级市场上
购买欧元区国家短期债券，
以此纠正“金融市场中的扭曲”
。<
/p>
但他警告称，
试图驯服欧洲陷入困
境的主权债务市场的任何努力，都要伴
随类似于希腊、爱尔兰和葡萄
牙接受纾
困时所面临的严厉的财政和结构改革条
件。
经合组织
(OECD)
秘书长若泽?安赫
尔?古里亚
(Jos
é
Angel Gurr
í
a)
告诉英国
《金融时报》
：
“这就是你们说的火箭筒。
欧洲央行
(ECB)
昨日向市场发出迄
今最强烈的信号，表示将部署无限的货
币火力拯救欧元。
“这种肌肉和火力是相当令人生
畏的，因为
不管是效果上还是理论上，
它都是无限的。
”
< br>
西班牙和意大利将首先必须申请
欧洲救助资金的帮助，
才能让欧洲央行
触发债券购买计划。目前两国政府均无
gove
rnment showed any inclination to do so
soon.
“
When I
have anything new to tell you, I
will,
”
Spanish prime minister Mariano Rajoy
replied when asked. In Rome, Italian
prime minister
Mario Monti said it was
“
premature
”
to say Italy
had
already decided to apply.
迹象表明有意在短期内采取此举。
西班牙首相马里亚诺?拉霍伊
(Mariano Rajoy)
在被问及此事时表示：
“一旦我有了新消息可以告诉你，我肯<
/p>
定会告诉你。
”意大利总理马里奥?蒙蒂
(Mario Monti)
表示，要说意大利已经决
定提出申
请“为时过早”
。
The plan
spearheaded by Mr Draghi
–
who
pledged in July to do
“
whatever it
takes
”
to save
the euro
–
was welcomed by markets and
European leaders, although
Germany
’
s
Bundesbank remains fiercely opposed and
warned
that it could
backfire.
China
was the source of almost three-quarters of
德拉吉主导的这个计划受到市场
和欧洲领导人的欢迎，但德国央行
(Bundesbank)
依然强烈反对，
警告称该
计
划可能适得其反。德拉吉曾在
7
月份
表
示要“不惜一切代价”拯救欧元。
译者
/
倪卫国
欧盟本周发布的一份报告显示，
在去年欧盟各
< br>the
?1.3bn
in
counterfeit
g
oods
intercepted
by
成员
国海关查获的价值
13
亿欧元的假冒仿制
European
customs
authorities
last
year,
产品中，近四分之三来自中国。
according to an EU report published
this week.
The
115m
counterfeit
products seized
was
a
15
< br>2011
年查获的
1.15
亿件
假冒产品较上年增长
per
cent
increase
over
the
previous
year
and
a
15%
，过去
10
年里增加了十倍。欧盟委员会
tenfold
increase
over
the
last
decade.
Jonathan
(European
Commission)
发
言
人<
/p>
乔
纳
森
?
托
德
Todd,
a
European
Commission
spokesman,
(Jonathan
Todd)
将假货规模猛增的原因归因于
attrib
uted
much
of
the
increase to
the
explosion
电子商务的爆炸式发展。
他指出，
去年绝大部
of
online
commerce,
noting
that
most
seizures
分假冒产品是在邮局查获的，
而非像以往那样
last
year
were
made
at
post
offices
rather
than
主要在港口查获。
ports,
as had previously been the case.
Mr
Todd
added
that
the
surge
represented
a
假货规模快速增长对欧盟消费者
danger to
European consumers because many of
托德补充
称，
因为很多假冒产品
——
包括药品和
the
counterfeit
products
–
including
构成危险，
pharmaceuticals
and
cosmetics
–
could
include
化妆品
——
可能含有有害的化学物质。他指
harmful
chemicals.
Often
consumers
were
not
出，消费者往往不知道所购产品为假冒仿制。
aware
products were counterfeit, Mr Todd added.
―T
he
[EU]
continues
to
work
closely
with
托德表示
：
―
欧盟将继续与各成员国以及国际
m
ember
states,
and
international
partners,
to
伙伴密切合作，
以维护守法企业
的利益，
并保
defend
the
interests
of
legal
businesses
and
the
护公民安全。
‖
safety of citizens,‖ Mr Todd
said.
The 31-page report, an
annual study produced by
欧盟委员会的这份年度研究报告
篇幅达
31
页。
the
European
Commission,
found
nearly
73
per
报告指出，欧盟去年查获的假冒产品中有
73%
cent of goods seized last year
came from China,
来自中国内地，
另有
7.7%
来自中国香港。
其他
with Hong Kong adding another 7.7 per cent.
All
主要假货产地所占份额
——
希
腊为
4.8%
，
印度
< br>other sources
–
including
Greece, at 4.8 per cent,
为
3.
3%
——
远远低于中国。
and India, 3.3 per cent
–
were far lower.
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