Unit 10 The Fantastic Spurt in Technology课文翻译大学英语三

Unit 10 The Fantastic Spurt in Technology

A. Toffler

Alvin Toffler writes about the fact that technology is advancing much faster today than

ever before in history. The symbols of technology are no longer factory smokestacks or

assembly lines. As we are headed for the future, the pace will quicken still further.

To most people the term technology conjures up images of smoky steel mills or noisy

machines.

Perhaps

the

classic

representation

of

technology

is

still

the

assembly

line

created

by

Henry

Ford

half

a

century

ago

and

made

into

a

social

symbol

by

Charlie

Chaplin

in

Modern

Times.

This

symbol,

however,

has

always

been

inadequate

and

misleading,

for

technology

has

always

been

more

than

factories

and

machines.

The

invention

of

the

horse

collar

in

the

middle

ages

led

to

major

changes

in

agricultural

methods

and

was

as

much

a

technological

advance

as

the

invention

of

the

Bessemer

furnace centuries later. Moreover, technology includes techniques, or ways to do things,

as well as the machines that may or may not be necessary to apply them. It includes ways

to make chemical reactions occur, ways to breed fish, plant forests, light theaters, count

votes or teach history.

The

old

symbols

of

technology

are

even

more

misleading

today,

when

the

most

advanced

technological

processes

are

carried

out

far

from

assembly

lines

or

blast

furnaces. Indeed, in electronics, in space technology, in most of the new industries, quiet

and clean surroundings are characteristic -- even sometimes essential. And the assembly

line -- the organization of large numbers of men to carry out simple repetitive functions --

is

outdated.

It

is

time

for

our

symbols

of

technology

to

change

--

to

catch

up

with

the

quickening change in technology itself.

This

acceleration

is

frequently

dramatized

by

a

brief

account

of

the

progress

in

transportation.

It

has

been

pointed

out,

for

example,

that

in

6000

BC

the

fastest

transportation

available

to

man

over

long

distances

was

the

camel

caravan,

averaging

eight miles per hour (mph). It was not until about 1600 BC when the chariot was invented

that the maximum speed was raised to roughly twenty miles per hour.

So impressive was this invention, so difficult was it to exceed this speed limit, that

nearly 3,500 years later, when the first mail coach began operating in England in 1784, it

averaged a mere ten mph. The first steam locomotive, introduced in 1825, could have a

top speed of only thirteen mph and the great sailing ships of the time labored along at less

tan half that speed. It was probably not until the 1880's that man, with the help of a more

advanced steam locomotive, managed to reach a speed of one hundred mph. It took the

human race millions of years to attain that record.

It took only fifty-eight years, however, to go four times that fast, so that by 1938 men

in

airplanes

were

traveling

at

better

than 400 mph.

It

took a

mere

twenty-year

flick

of

time to double the limit again. And by the 1960's rocket plants approached speeds of 4,00

mph. and men in space capsules were circling the earth at 18,000 mph.

Whether

we

examine

distances

traveled,

altitudes

reached,

or

minerals

mined,

the

same accelerative trend is obvious. The pattern, here and in a thousand other statistical

series, is absolutely clear and unmistakable. Thousands of years go by, and then, in

our

won times, a sudden bursting of the limits, a fantastic spurt forward.

The

reason

for

this

is

tat

technology

feeds

on

itself.

Technology

makes

more

technology possible, as we can see if we look for a moment at the process of innovation.

Technological innovation consists of three stages, linked together into a self-reinforcing

cycle. First, there is the creative, feasible idea. Second, its practical application. Third, its

diffusion through society.

The

process

is

completed,

the

loop

closed,

when

the

diffusion

of

technology

embodying

the

new

idea,

in

turn,

helps

generate

new

creative

ideas.

Today

there

is

evidence that the time between each of the steps in this cycle has been shortened.

Thus it is not merely true, as frequently noted, that 90 percent of all the scientists

who ever lived are now alive, and that new scientific discoveries are being mad every day.

These new ideas are put to work much more quickly than ever before. The time between

the

first

and

second

stages

of

the

cycle

--

between

idea

and

application

--

has

been

radically reduced. This is a striking difference between ourselves and our ancestors. It is

not that we are more eager or less lazy than our ancestors, but we have, with the passage

of time, invented all sorts of social device to hasten the process.

But if it takes less time to bring a new idea to the marketplace, it also takes less time

for it to sweep through the society. For example, the refrigerator was introduced in the

United States before 1920, yet its peak production did

not come until more

than

thirty

years

later.

However,

by

1950

--

in

only

a

few

years

--

television

had

grown

from

a

laboratory

novelty

to

the

biggest

part

of

show

business.

So

the

interval

between

the

second and third stages of the cycle -- between application and diffusion -- has likewise

been cut, and the pace of diffusion is rising with astonishing speed.

The stepped-up pace of invention, application and diffusion, in turn, accelerates the

whole cycle still further. For new machines or techniques are not merely a product, but a

source, of fresh creative ideas.