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NO.1

Northern gripes

The Finns are being hard-nosed because they face their own hardship

IN THE historic heart of Helsinki, leviathan cruise ships can be glimpsed across the

harbour ready for their next trip. Just two hours across the Gulf of Finland is Tallinn

in Estonia. Continue due south and a weary traveller will eventually reach Athens. If

Greece is the awkward customer among southern Europe‘s debtor nations, Finland

is the stroppy partner among northern creditor nations. It has insisted on special

terms on its contributions to euro-zone bail-outs since mid-2011 by getting

collateral on its lending. Government ministers eschew high-flown rhetoric about

European unity: the foreign minister recently caused a kerfuffle by saying that

Finland has contingency plans for a break-up of the euro.

From one perspective, it is hard to see why Finland is being so obstreperous. The

country thrived for the best part of a decade after it joined the single currency in

1999. And although it suffered in the recession of 2008-09 it has since made a

robust recovery. Unemployment has come down from a peak of 8.7% in early 2010,

to 7.5%. Helsinki‘s markets are thronged with shoppers and retail sales acr

oss the

country have been perky. The recovery has been sustained by strong consumer

spending, supported by a sturdy housing market. The financial system is in decent

shape.

Finland‘s public finances are healthy, too, certainly compared with those elsewhere

in the euro area. Of the six remaining AAA

–

rated countries in the 17-strong zone, it

is the only one not facing the risk of a downgrade, according to Moody‘s, a ratings

agency. Public debt is only about 50% of GDP, much lower than Germany‘s 80%,

and the government is running a deficit of about 1% of GDP this year, a paltry

amount compared with those being racked up in Europe‘s debtor countries.

But from another perspective, Finland‘s performance looks disappointing. An

alternative destination from Helsinki on one of those monster cruise ships is due

west to Stockholm. Unlike Finland, Sweden chose not to join the euro. Until the

crisis, that made little difference. Both countries did well; if anything Finland‘s

performance was stronger. But over the past five years their fortunes have diverged

to the detriment of Finland (see chart).

The Finns suffered a much sharper recession than the Swedes, and Finland‘s

recovery has been less ebullient. Moreover, the Finnish economy has stumbled of

late: GDP fell by 1% in the second quarter in Finland, whereas it rose by 1.4% in

Sweden. There were special reasons why the Finnish economy contracted

—

in effect,

growth had been brought forward to the first quarter as consumers bought cars

early to avoid a tax rise. But GDP is now likely to expand by about 0.5% in 2012,

says Markku Kotilainen of the Research Institute of the Finnish Economy. In

contrast, Swedish output will expand by 1.3%, according to Robert Bergqvist of SEB,

a bank.

In another telling comparison, Sweden continues to run a hefty current-account

surplus (worth 7% of GDP in 2011) whereas Finland swung into deficit last year for

the first time since 1993, a phenomenon noted with concern by Erkki Liikanen, the

governor of the central bank. And whereas Finlan

d‘s public debt was lower than

Sweden‘s before the crisis, now it is higher.

Some of this reflects setbacks to Nokia, Finland‘s falling mobile

-phone star (see

article

), whose share of Finnish GDP has shrivelled to an eighth of what it was at its

peak a decade ago. But there are other worries. Mainstay industries, such as wood

and paper production, have also been doing badly. The Bank of Finland argues that

a crucial reason why exports have been doing badly is a loss of competitiveness:

unit labour costs have shot up by 20% in the past five years.

The economy‘s longer

-term prospects add to the gloom. In a survey of the Finnish

economy published early this year, the OECD estimated that GDP would grow by

just 1.7% a year between 2016 and 2030. The bills for a rapidly ageing population

are coming due, as the bumper crop of babies born after the second world war

retires.

The coalition government formed in mid-2011 and led by the conservative prime

minister, Jyrki Katainen, has adopted measures to improve the structural budget

balance by 2% of GDP in 2015. The fiscal tightening will be especially marked next

year, with value-added tax on consumption rising by one percentage point. That is

one reason why growth is expected to be a soggy sub-1% in 2013, according to Mr

Kotilainen. But even with this dose of austerity, the ministry of finance reckons

there is a ―sustainability gap‖ of 3.5% of GDP a year that will have to be closed to

put Finland‘s public fi

nances on a secure footing.

Along with further austerity, painful reforms are required. Finland needs to raise its

retirement age. And as the OECD urged in its report, it needs to improve

public-service productivity. The government is starting to move in the right

direction with its plan to reduce the number of local authorities, which are

responsible for crucial public services like health, but plenty more needs to be done.

As times turn hard at home, many Finns bristle at having to bail out what they

regard as profligate euro-zone countries that have not played by the rules. Mr

Katainen‘s demands for collateral stem from a coalition agreement forged after the

election in April 2011, which saw the eruption of the anti-bail-out True Finns, now

the biggest opposition party. Even so, he is keen to present himself as a

constructive negotiator rather than a troublemaker.

And despite the dislike for bail-outs, Finnish public opinion continues to favour the

euro, which is also backed by both business and the unions. One reason lies in

another destination that the big cruise-ships visit

—

nearby St Petersburg. As Teija

Tiilikainen, the head of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, points out,

joining the euro had a security dimension, through binding Finland more closely into

Europe and so providing a bulwark against Russia (still its largest trading partner).

Finns may not be dreaming of a future outside the single currency, but their

reluctance to help makes them a prime example of the ―rescue fatigue‖ now

afflicting much of northern Europe (including the Netherlands, which has an election

of its own next month). That constraint is one reason why markets‘ sunny mood

about the euro crisis may not last far into the autumn.

No.2

Growing disbelief

Atheists are getting both more numerous and louder

AMERICA is not an easy place for atheists. Religion pervades the public sphere, and

studies show that non- believers are more distrusted than other minorities.

Several states still ban atheists from holding public office. These rules, which are

unconstitutional, are never enforced, but that hardly matters. Over 40% of

Americans say they would never vote for an atheist presidential candidate.

Yet the past seven years have seen a fivefold increase in people who call themselves

atheists, to 5% of the population, according to WIN-Gallup International, a network

of pollsters. Meanwhile the proportion of Americans who say they are religious has

fallen from 73% in 2005 to 60% in 2011.

Such a large drop in religiosity is startling, but the data on atheists are in line with

other polling. A Pew survey in 2009 also found that 5% of Americans did not believe

in God. But only a quarter of those called themselves atheists. The newest polling,

therefore, may simply show an increase in those willing to say the word.

This change may have come about because of an informal movement of

non-

believers known as ―New Atheism‖. Over the past eight years, authors such as

Richard Dawkins and the late Christopher Hitchens have attacked religion in

bestselling books, appealing to logic and science. Mr Dawkins, a British biologist,

has especially encouraged people to declare their disbelief.

Earlier this year he spoke at the ―Reason Rally‖, a gathering of thousands of

secularists on the Mall in Washington, DC. ―We are approaching a tipping point,‖ he

predicted, ―where the number of people who have come out becomes so great that

suddenly everyone will realise, ?I can come out too‘.‖

Some are doing so loudly. When Democratic convention-goers arrive in Charlotte,

North Carolina, they will be greeted by a billboard sponsored by a group called

American Atheists that claims Christianity ―promotes hate‖ and exalts a ―useless

saviour‖. A similar billboard mocking Mormonism was planned for the Republican

convention, but no one would sell the group space.

American Atheists is also trying to block the display of a cross-shaped steel beam at

the September 11th museum in New York. The beam, found in the wreckage of the

World Trade Centre, was a totem for rescuers. The atheists see its inclusion as an

unconstitutional mingling of church and state. The museum says the cross is an

historical artefact, and that anyway it is not a government agency. Fights like this

are unlikely to enhance atheism‘s growing appeal in America.

NO.3

Working partners

Unexpected co-operation, and investment, beside the Maumee river

TOLEDO, Ohio, could be any struggling city in America‘s rust belt. The view from the

offices

of

the

mayor

,

Michael

Bell,

takes

in

a

clutch

of

grey

skyscrapers,

a

minor-league baseball field (home of the Toledo Mud Hens), grain silos, strangely

empty streets and, in the distance, a petrol refinery. Yet the mayor has something

new to show visitors. The skyscraper to his right, housing a business hotel, now

belongs to Chinese investors. In 2011 another Chinese group spent $$2.15m on a

restaurant complex beside the Maumee river

, then a further $$3.8m on waterfront

land euphemistically dubbed the ―Marina District‖, once home to a power station.

Just out of view is the site of what regional development officials say will be, by

year‘s

end,

a

new

Chinese

-owned

metalworking

plant

worth

tens

of

millions

of

dollars.

It is early days yet. But Mr Bell

—

a brawny former city fire chief who won office in

2009 as an independent

—

has a plan to revive his city of 290,000 people. Just as

Japanese manufacturers saw advantage in moving chunks of production to America

from the 1970s on, Mr Bell believes that Chinese businesses are ready to seek sites

in America, as rising global transport costs outweigh the benefits of cheap labour

. He

sees no reason why Toledo should not be on their list. He has made three official

trips to China.

In September

some 200 mostly Chinese businessmen are due in

Toledo

for

a

conference

on

operating

in

America.

Selling

his

city

abroad

was

chastening, the mayor says: most Chinese had never heard of it. But as he talked,

they would ―whip out their smartphones‖ and check what he was telling them: that

it lies on the Great Lakes, where major interstate highways cross; is cheaper than

Chicago;

is

home

to

skilled

car-

and

glassmakers,

solar-panel

firms

and

an

under-

used airport; and they would go ―Aha‖.

Mr Bell is a charmer

—

a city poster shows him astride his Harley-Davidson, urging

local youngsters to get a library card

—

but his quest is taken seriously by sobersided

local businessmen and

the state‘s governor

, John Kasich, a robustly free

-market

Republican.

Some

locals

have

been

harder

to

convince.

There

was

wild

talk

that

Chinese

submarines would lurk offshore or that Chinese firms would foul Lake Erie.

―Stupid,

ignorant‖ stuff, says the mayor: the legacy of a city unused to selling itself globally.

Mr Bell has wrestled with mighty local unions, especially when he sided with Mr

Kasich in a 2011 dispute about collective bargaining. Workers, says the mayor, need

to

be

―reasonable‖.

Pride

in

a

skilled

trade

is

no

use

if

they

are

at

home,

unemployed.

Anxiety

about

China

has

spread

well

beyond

blue-collar

sectors,

reports

Tony

Damon, the boss of a Toledo-based architecture and engineering firm, SSOE, which

designs

high- tech

research

centres

or

test

tracks

for

clients

worldwide,

including

< br>—

increasingly

—

in

China.

Some

of

his

graduate

engineers

voice

alarm

about the rivals pouring out of Asian universities and worry that SSOE does so much

business in China. He replies that global growth is a question of survival, not choice,

and that profitable work in China keeps jobs in Ohio.

Alas, such pragmatism in Toledo is not matched by national politicians, who have

resorted to some of their fieriest China-bashing when in Ohio, a must-win swing

state for both parties. In July, Barack Obama boasted to a crowd near Toledo that he

was filing a complaint with the WTO against Chinese duties on imported cars, such

as the Ohio-built Jeep Wrangler

, and accused his rival Mitt Romney of building a

business career on outsourcing jobs abroad. Visiting the state on August 16th, Mr

Romney‘s Republican running

-mate, Paul Ryan, accused China of stealing American

intellectual

property,

blocking

market

access

and

currency

manipulation,

and

accu

sed Mr Obama of being a ―doormat‖ in the face of Chinese ―cheating‖.

In truth, both camps are mostly using China as a proxy

—

using the idea of a Chinese

threat to define the other party as unwilling to defend American workers‘ interests.

In their more thoughtful moments, Mr Obama and Mr Romney admit that global

competition

is

a

reality

that

cannot

be

wished

away.

Yet

such

election-year

double-

talk has consequences. When Mr Obama and Mr Romney ―talk that trash‖

about free trade, it makes it harder to win the trust of Chinese investors, frets Mr

Bell. Both presidential candidates are ―shooting for emotion‖. His task is practical:

saving his home city.

NO.4

The ECB's end of the bargain

THE

RE is a lot

of new euro area economic data to consider today, the most

important of which is a

first estimate of the euro zone's second quarter output.

According to eurostat, output in the single-currency area fell 0.2% from the first

quarter to the second and was down 0.4% from a year earlier. GDP dropped sharply

in Italy, Portugal, and Spain, as well as in Belgium. The French economy posted zero

growth for a third consecutive quarter. And Austria, Germany, and the Netherlands

all managed growth in the second quarter, albeit at a generally slower pace than in

the first.

New June industrial production numbers reveal that the quarter ended on a sour

note across the entire euro area, including in Germany, where production was down

for a second month in three. Meanwhile, a measure of German economic sentiment

unexpectedly sank for a fourth consecutive month in August.

On Friday I joked that the euro-zon

e periphery ought to begin tying all its reforms

and austerity programmes to the level of euro-zone nominal output, the idea being

that if the ECB can't maintain adequate growth across the euro zone as a whole, it

is unreasonable to expect a struggling periphery to address its fiscal troubles and

eliminate its imbalances with the core. Germany's economy needs to grow at more

than capacity, so as to increase absorbtion of exports from the periphery. If it

doesn't, the periphery can only address its imbalances through import compression,

which is to say, through depression.

It might be useful to look at a recent history of nominal output in the euro zone.

Growth in nominal GDP for the euro area as a whole has been on average below the

trend during the pre-crisis decade. It has also declined steadily since early 2011;