金融英语阅读：如何选择股票

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金融 英语阅读：如何选择股票

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英文：

How To Pick A Stock?

When technical analysis is mentioned

，

people often think of analysts plotting

price

movements

of

stocks

，

drawing

lines

to

find

trends

，

support

or

resistance

．

Technical analysis is the art of deducing probable future trend from

historical records of stock trading

．

It is the study of the stock market itself rather

than the external factors that influence the market

．

The most familiar indicators

used are the price and volume of a stock

．

Advocates

of

technical

analysis

believe

that

information

is

not

immediately

reflected in the market prices of stocks

．

For example

，

when a piece of good news

about

a

company

is

available

，

it

is

not

immediately

known

to

everyone

but

is

slowly passed from one person to another

．

This process takes time and an upward price trend develops for that company

as more and more people hear the good news and want to buy the stock and fewer

and fewer people are willing to sell the stock

．

The stock price which has started to

move in an uptrend will continue to do so until something happens to change the

supply

－

demand balance

．

For the technical analyst

，

he does not need to know what the good news or

any other information that is affecting the stock price is

；

the chart will tell him

whether the stock price is going to move up or down

．

He does not need to know

the

fundamentals

of

the

company

because

if

the

price

is

going

up

，

the

fundamentals must be improving

．

On

the

other

hand

，

fundamental

analysis

examines

all

relevant

factors

affecting the stock price in order to determine an intrinsic value for that stock

．

If

the market price is below the intrinsic value

，

then the stock is undervalued and

should be bought

．

The factors to consider include balance sheet items

，

corporate

management

，

business prospects and earnings outlook

．

The

fundamental

analyst

calculates

financial

ratios

based

on

data

available

from the balance sheet and income statement of a company

．

From these ratios

，

he deduces the financial strength and earnings trend of the company

．

Then he will

meet

the

company's

management

to

affirm

his

deductions

，

to

understand

the

business and to learn of any new development of the company and the industry

．

A widely used tool in fundamental analysis is the price

－

earnings ratio or PE

ratio

．

It is calculated using the stock price divided by the earnings per share

（

EPS

）

of a company

．

As a general rule

，

a stock with a low PE ratio is considered cheap

although

there

are

difficulties

in

applying

this

principle

．

PE

ratios

of

two

companies can only be compared if the companies are similar

．

It

is

believed

that

companies

in

different

industries

deserve

different

PE

ratios

．

For example

，

Singapore Telecom is believed to deserve a higher PE ratio

than many other stocks because of its position in the telecommunication business

．

However

，

analysts

have

not

yet

agreed

on

what

PE

ratio

each

industry

or

company deserves and there is no one way to determine the right PE ratio

．

Both

approaches

attempt

to

predict

the

future

price

movement

of

a

stock

．

Fundamentalists

study

the

cause

of

market

movement

while

technicians

believe that the effect is all that they need to know

．

Despite their differences

，

both approaches try to increase your probability of

picking up the right stock at a right price

．

However

，

these methods only increase

your

chances

but

do

not

guarantee

complete

success

．

Some

believe

that

fundamental analysis is good for picking the right stock while technical analysis is

appropriate to decide the right price or time to buy

．

For

the

professional

investor

，

he

has

to

take

another

step

of

deciding

the

sequence

of

analysis

．

This

will

have

an

impact

on

how

the

investor

divides

his

money

among

different

countries

and

stocks

．

Basically

，

the

investor

decides

whether

the

market

as

a

whole

or

the

company

itself

is

more

important

in

determining

stock

prices

．

Both

factors

definitely

influence

stock

prices

but

the

degree of influence is the issue

．

The

top

－

down

approach

or

sometimes

known

as

the

Economy

－

Industry

－

Company

（

EIC

）

model emphasises the market over the company

．

It starts with

the

analysis

of

different

economies

to

determine

which

country

could

offer

the

investor better returns

．

In

the

selected

economy

，

it

searches

for

industries

that

provide

better

prospects and it picks the best companies within these industries

．

The top

－

down

approach offers a systematic and structured way to analyse stocks

．

It advocates

that

the

economy

and

industry

effects

are

significant

factors

in

determining

the

total return for stocks

．

The bottom

－

up or stock picking approach believes in finding stocks that are

undervalued

which

can

provide

superior

returns

irrespective

of

the

market

and

industry factors

．

The company effect is the dominant factor in determining stock

return

．

There is no overwhelming evidence to suggest which approach offers superior

returns

to

the

investors

．

The

most

important

thing

is

that

an

investor

is

comfortable with a particular method

，

understands its strengths and limitations

，

experiments with it

，

finds that it works for him and abides by the method

．

中文：如何选择股票

?

一提起技术分析，

人们就会想到股票分析员画股价走势图，

找支持线和阻力线。

< br>基本上，

这个方式是根据过去的记录预测未来表现。

换句 话说，

技术分析研究股市本身，

不是影响它

的外在因素；而股价和成交量是它最常用的数据。

技术分析的支持者认为，