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新概念英语第四册
Lesson14~16
原文
及翻译
新概念
英语第四册
Lesson14
原文及翻译
The Butterfly Effect
蝴蝶效应
Why
do small errors make it impossible to predict
the weather system with a high degree
of accuracy?
Beyond
two
or
three
days,
the
world
’
s
best
weather
forecasts
are
speculative,
and
beyond
six
or
seven
they
are
worthless.
The
Butterfly
Effect
is
the
reason.
For
small
pieces of weather
-- and to a global forecaster, small
can
mean
thunderstorms
and
blizzards
--
any
prediction
deteriorates
rapidly.
Errors
and
uncertainties
multiply,
cascading
upward
through
a
chain
of
turbulent
features,
from
dust
devils
and
squalls
up
to
continent-size eddies
that only satellites can see.
The modern
weather models work with a grid of
points of the order of sixty miles
apart, and even so,
some
starting
data
has
to
guessed,
since
ground
stations
and
satellites
cannot
see
everywhere.
But
suppose
the
earth
could
be
covered
with
sensors
spaced
one foot apart,
rising at one-foot intervals all the
way to the top of the atmosphere.
Suppose every sensor
gives
perfectly
accurate
readings
of
temperature,
pressure,
humidity,
and
any
other
quantity
a
meteorologist
would
want.
Precisely
at
noon
an
infinitely powerful computer takes all
the data and
calculates
what
will
happen
at
each
point
at
12.01,
then
1202,
then 12.03...
The
computer
will
still
be
unable
to
predict
whether Princeton, New Jersey, will
have sun or rain
on
a
day
one
month
away.
At
noon
the
spaces
between
the
sensors will hide fluctuations that the
computer will
not know about, tiny
deviations from the average. By
12.01,
those fluctuations will already have created
small errors one foot away. Soon the
errors will have
multiplied to the ten-
foot scale, and so on up to the
size of
the globe.
JAMES GLEICK, Chaos
New words and
expressions
生词和短语
forecast
n.
预报
speculative
adj.
推测的
blizzard
n.
暴风雪
deteriorate
v.
变坏
multiply
v.
增加
cascade
v.
瀑布似地落下
turbulent
adj.
狂暴的
dust devil
小尘暴，尘旋风
squall
n.
暴风
eddy
n.
旋涡
grid
n.
坐标方格
sensor
n.
传感器
humidity
n.
温度
meteorologist
n.
气象学家
Princeton
n.
普
林斯顿
(
美国城市名
)
New
Jersey
n.
新泽西
(
美国州名
)
fluctuation
n.
起伏，波动
deviation
n.
偏差
参考译文
世界上的两三天以上的天气预报具
有很强的猜测性，
如
果超过六七天，天气预报就没有了任何价值
。
原因是蝴蝶效应。
对于小片的恶劣天气
--
对一个全球
性的气象预报员来说，
“小”可以意味着雷暴雨和暴风雪
--
任何预测的质量会
很快下降。错误和不可靠性上升，接踵而
来的是一系列湍流的徵状，从小尘暴和暴风发展
到只有卫星
上可以看到的席卷整块大陆的旋涡。
现代气
象模型以一个坐标图来显示，
图中每个点大约是
间隔
60
英里。既使是这样，有些开始时的资料也不得不依
靠推测，因为地面工作站和卫星不可能看到地球上的每一个
地方。假设地球上可以布
满传感器，每个相隔
1
英尺，并按
1<
/p>
英尺的间隔从地面一直排列到大气层的顶端。再假定每个
传感器都
极极端准确地读出了温度、气压、温度和气象学家
需要的任何其他数据。在正午时分，一
个功能巨大的计算机
搜集了所有的资料，并算出在每一个点上
1
2
：
01
、
1
2
：
02
、
1
2
：
03
时可能出现的情况。
计算机无法推断出
1
个月以后的某一天，
新泽西州的普
林斯顿究竟是晴天还是雨天。正午时分，传感器之间的距离<
/p>
会掩盖计算机无法知道的波动、
任何偏平均值的变化。
到
12
：
01
时，
那些波动就已经会在
1
英尺远的地方造成偏差。
很快
这种偏差会增加到尺
10
英的范围，如此等等，一直到全球
的范围。<
/p>
新概念英语第四册
Lesson15
原文及翻译
Secrecy in industry
工业中的秘密
First
listen
and
then
answer
the
following
question.
听录音，然后回答以下问题。
Why
is
secrecy
particularly
important
in
the
chemical
industries?
Two
factors
weigh
heavily
against
the
effectiveness of
scientific research in industry. One
is
the general atmosphere of secrecy in which it is
carried
out,
the
other
the
lack
of
freedom
of
the
individual research
worker. In so far as any inquiry
is a
secret one, it naturally limits all those engaged
in carrying it out from effective
contact with their
fellow
scientists
either
in
other
countries
or
in
universities,
or
even,
often
enough,
in
other
departments of the same firm. The
degree of secrecy
naturally
varies
considerably.
Some
of
the
bigger
firms
are
engaged
in
researches
which
are
of
such
general
and
fundamental nature that it is a
positive advantage to
them
not
to
keep
them
secret.
Yet
a
great
many
processes
depending
on
such
research
are
sought
for
with
complete
secrecy until the stage at which
patents can be taken
out. Even more
processes are never patented at all but
kept
as
secret
processes.
This
applies
particularly
to
chemical industries,
where chance discoveries play a
much
larger
part
than
they
do
in
physical
and
mechanical
industries.
Sometimes
the
secrecy
goes
to
such
an
extent
that the whole nature of the research cannot be
mentioned.
Many
firms,
for
instance,
have
great
difficulty in
obtaining technical or scientific books
from
libraries
because
they
are
unwilling
to
have
names
entered as having
taken out such and such a book, for
fear the agents of other firms should
be able to trace
the
kind
of
research
they
are
likely
to
be
undertaking.
J.D. BERNAL The
Social Function of Science
New words and expressions
secrecy
n.
秘密
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