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Academic-English-Growing-
gr
ey
Growing
grey
John I. Clarke and Andrew Craven
The
populationof
the
world
is
ageing.
The
proportion
of
elderly
people
in
both
developed
and developing countries is growing.
This article
considers the statistics
and some of the impacts
of this
demographic phenomenon. It is relevant
to anyone studying population change.
We live in an ageist society, in which
people
are discriminated against on the
grounds of age.
This
is
curious,
because
most
countries
in
the
world
have
ageing
populations,
with
a
growing
proportion
of
old
people
who
will
have
an
increasing
impact
upon
all
aspects
of
polity,
society and economy.
1 Who
are the old?
There
are
no
sharp
thresholds
separating
the old and the very old (sometimes
less harshly
called elderly and very
elderly) from the rest of
the
population.
Internationally,
the
UN
Population
Division defines the old as those aged
60
and
over
(United
Nations,
2005).
In
2005
there
were
about
673
million
old
people
according to this
definition
一
10% of the world
population In the developing world this
was 8%
of
the
population
and
in
the
developed
world
20%. The rather low UN
threshold of 60 makes
sense
in
the
developing
world,
as
people
have
lower
life
expectancies
there,
but
in
the
developed
world
as
a
whole
those
aged
60
and
over already outnumber
children aged 0-14.
The
widely
cited
data
sheets
of
the
Population Reference Bureau (Haute,
2005) use
the
higher
threshold
of
65
and
over
as
a
definition
of
old
age.
According
to
this,
about
7% of
the world population were
only 5% of
the developing world, but 15% of the
developed
world.
In
the
UK
we
have
tended,
rather
idiosyncratically,
to
define
old
people
as
those
of
pensionable
age-65
and
over
for
men
and 60
and over for women. This is despite the
fact
that
women
tend
to
outlive
men.
At
the
2001 census 18.4% of the
UK population, or 10.8
million
people,
fell
into
this
category.
Fortunately,
the
gender
difference
in
the
definition
is being replaced by a general
move
to 65 and over.
2 Who are the very old?
Demographers
often
distinguish
between
the
and the very
old,
because they
differ
considerably
in
their
activities,
health,
medical
and
housing
needs,
independence,
social
integration/segregation
and
in
their
contributions
to
society.
Even
access
to
the
Internet
tends
to
vary
by
age.
Again,
there
is
no
clear
cut
threshold
for
the
rapidly
growing
very
old
population.
Seventy
five
and
over
is
commonly used
in the UK and other developed
countries,
and
85
and
over
for
the
increasing
numbers
of
very,
very
old.
However,
the
UN
Population
Division
provides
data
for
an
intermediate
age
group-the
oldest-old
-aged
80
and over. In 2005 this
group accounted for only
1.3%
of
the
world
population,
and
more
than
half
of
them
were
in
the
developed
world
where
less
than
a
fifth
of
the
world
population
was
living (United Nations,
2005)
3 More old and very old people
Ageing
of
the
population
is
mainly
caused
by-
the
worldwide
phenomenon
of
fertility
decline, which is
bringing about widespread but
variable
reductions
in
the
percentage
of
young
people.
It
is
augmented
by
increased
life
expectancy.
The
number of those aged 60 and
over
in
the
world
is
increasing
by
about
2%
annually,
faster
than
younger
age
groups.
In
2000,
there
were
approximately
three
times
as
many
people aged 60 and over in the world as in
1950; by 2050
they are
expected to
triple
again
to
reach
22%
of
the
world
total,
or
almost
1.9
billion. Eight out of ten of them will
be living in
the developing world.
Naturally,
the
percentage
of
old
people
(
Figure
1)and
their
rate
of
increase
varies
among
countries.
In
2005,
those
aged
60
and
over
ranged
from
more
than
25%
in
Japan,
Italy
and
Germany
to
less
than
5%
in
most
tropical
African
countries
and
in
the
oil-rich
countries
in
the
Middle
East
that
attract
numerous young
workers. By 2050, the range is
expected
to be even wider from more than 40%
in
Japan(
which has the
longest
life
expectancy
in
the
world),
Italy,
the
Republic
of
Korea
and
Slovenia
to
still
less
than
5%
in
a
few
African
countries
(Equatorial
Guinea,
Liberia
and
Swaziland).
Broadly,
ageing
of
population
is
fastest
in
countries
with
rapid
fertility
decline
(e.g.,
China,
the
Republic
of
Korea,
Tunisia,
Iran
and
Algeria),
and
slowest
in
the
least
developed
countries
of
tropical
Africa
(e.g.,
Niger,
Uganda)
that
have
experienced
limited
fertility
decline.
These
contrasts
between
countries
are
much
the
same
if
the
65-year
threshold is used.
In this ageing process the UK
is
about
average
for
a
developed
country.
In
2005,
21%
of
the
UK
population
were
aged
60
and over, and this is expected to rise
to 29% in
2050.
By
this
time.
some
developed
countries
will have two elderly people for every
child.
The geographical differences are
even more
striking
among
the
oldest
age
groups,
whose
rates
of
growth
are
more
rapid
still.
UN
projections indicate that the world
population of
oldest-old
aged
80
and
over
is
increasing
by
4.2%
annually.
It
is
expected
to
grow
from
87
million (1.3% of the world total) in
2005 to 394
million (4.3% of the total)
in 2050, 70% of this
group
living
in
the
developed
world.
In
India
and
China
this
group
may
number
100
million
and
53
million
respectively
by
2050.
However
much higher percentages of oldest-old
are likely
to
be
found
in
some
developed
countries:
more
than
15% in
Japan and Italy, and up
to 9%
in
the
UK
(Figure
2)
In
contrast,
many
African
populations will
still have less than 1% of their
populations
aged
80
and
over.
The
2001
census
in
the
UK
gives
more
than
1.1
million
people
(1.9%)
aged
85
and
over.
This
is
5.5
times
the
number
counted
50
years
earlier
at
the
1951
census.
In 2001 there were more than a third of
a
million
aged
90
and over.
The
very old
is the
fastest
growing age group.
4 More
old women
Women
generally
live
longer
than
men,
although
the
difference
varies
from
over
10
years in
many
countries vn eastern Europe (13
years
in
Russia)
to
1
year
or
less
in
some
countries
in
south-central
Asia(Nepal,
Bangladesh and India). So the majority
of older
people
are
women,
but
that
majorty
increases
with age. In the world population of
2005, there
were about 10% more women
than men aged 60
and
over
(67
million)
.
However,
there
were
twice as many women as
men aged 80 and over
and four times as
many female centenarians. In
male-
dominated
societies,
elderly
widows
who
outlive
their
usually
older
husbands
face
particularly
severe
social
and
economic
problems. More than
half of all women aged 75
and over in
the UK
live alone, compared
with
less
than
a
third
of
men
of
that
age,
because
more elderly men
remarry.
5 Dependency burden
The
surge
in
the
numbers
and
proportion
of
old
people
is
posing
a
growing
age-related
dependency
burden on the active populations of
most countries. This is sometimes
measured by a
potential support ratio
(PSR), which is the ratio
of
the
number
aged
15-64
to
those
aged
65
or
more. Since 1950, the world PSR has
fallen from
12 to 9, and by 2050 it is
expected to fall to 4, a
level already
attained by the UK and Spain. It is
even
lower
than
this
in
Portugal
(3.9),
Greece
(3.7), Italy (3.5) and particularly in
Japan (3.3).
By 2020 one in four
Japanese will be over 65. In
the
developed
world,
we
have
had
time
to
become
accustomed to the growing problems of
pensions,
poverty,
health,
housing
and
isolation
of
elderly people in individualistic societies with
loosening
family
ties.
It
is
unfortunate
that
the
valuable
experience
of
elderly
people
is
often
overlooked as a
resource. they are insufficiently
integrated
into
society,
and
a
growing
percentage
of
the
them
are
living
alone.
In
the
developing
world,
ageing
of
populations
is
happening
much
more
rapidly,
as
is