[财务管理]证券估价

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1

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r

E

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注释：

To be precise, by cash we are referring

to the firm’s cas

h in excess of its

working capital needs, which is the

amount of cash it has invested at a

competitive market interest rate.

Solution:

估价乘数：基于可比公司的估价

We can compute a firm’s P/E ratio by using either

trailing

earnings (earnings over the prior 12 months) or forward

earnings (expected earnings over the coming 12 months),

with the resulting ratio called the trailing P/E or forward

P/E, respectively.

Valuations from multiples are based on the low, high, and

average values of the comparable firms from table above.

Red and blue regions show the variation between the

lowest- multiple/ worst-case scenario and the

highest-multiple/best-

case scenario. KCP’s actual share

price of $$26.75 is indicated by the gray line.

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信息、竞争与股票

价格

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竞争与有效市场

The

idea

that

markets

aggregate

the

information

of

many

investors,

and

that

this

information

is

reflected

in

security

prices,

is

a

natural

consequence

of

investor

competition.

If

information

were

available

that

indicated

that

buying

a

stock

had

a

positive

NPV,

investors

with

that

information

would choose to buy the stock; their attempts to purchase it

would

then

drive

up

the

stock’s

price.

By

a

similar

logic,

investors with information that selling a stock had a positive

NPV would sell

it and the stock’s price would fall.

The

idea

that

competition

among

investors

works

to

eliminate

all

positive-NPV trading opportunities is referred

to

as

the

efficient

markets

hypothesis.

It

implies

that

securities

will

be

fairly

priced,

based

on

their

future

cash

flows, given all information that is available to investors.

Public, Easily Interpretable Information

.

Private or Difficult-to- Interpret Information.

Implications for Corporate

Managers.

If

stocks

are

fairly

valued

according

to

the

models

we

have

described, then the value of the firm is determined by the cash

flows that it can pay to its investors. This result has several key

implications for corporate managers:

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Focus on NPV and free cash flow.

A manager seeking to boost

the

price

of

her

firm’s

stock

should

make

investments

that

increase the present value of the firm’s free cash

flow. Thus the

capital budgeting methods are fully consistent with the objective

of maximizing the firm’s share price.

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Avoid accounting illusions

.

Many managers

make the mistake

of

focusing

on

accounting

earnings

as

opposed

to

free

cash

flows. With efficient markets, the accounting consequences of a

decision do not directly affect the value of the firm and should

not drive decision making.

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Use financial transactions to support investment

.

With efficient

markets,

the

firm

can

sell

its

shares

at

a

fair

price

to

new

investors. Thus, the firm should not be constrained from

raising capital to fund positive NPV investment opportunities.

The

efficient

markets

hypothesis

is

best

expressed

in

terms

of returns. It states that securities with

equivalent risk

should

have

the

same

expected

return

.

The

efficient

markets

hypothesis

is

therefore

incomplete

without

a

definition

of

“equivalent

risk.”

Furthermore,

different

investors

may

perceive

risks

and

returns

differently

(based

on

their

information

and

preferences).

There

is

no

reason

to

expect

the

efficient

markets hypothesis

to hold perfectly;

it is best

viewed as an idealized approximation for highly competitive