troops英语时政新闻

信，它将像

2008

年时那样，出台又一套 巨额货币刺激方案。由于中国仍在艰难遏制那一波信贷狂潮

的长期影响，这将是一个明智 的决定。

In

order

to

stimulate

growth

that

is

sustainable,

the

government

should

encourage

consumer

spending

–

cutting

taxes

or increasing the size of its welfare

safety net.

This could also

help

China

rebalance

its

economy.

While

the

weight

of

investment

on

national

income

is

slowly

decreasing, it remains too high.

6

要刺激可持续的经济增长，

中国 政府应当鼓励消费者支出，

具体手段包括减税和扩大社保安全网。

这还可能帮助中国实现经济的再平衡。在中国的国民收入中，尽管投资所占比重正在缓慢下降，但

目前水平仍太高。

Another move would be to reform the banking sector so that credit flows to small and

medium-sized enterprises. As we report in our analysis today, too many bank loans go to

large, politically connected enterprises. Pilot projects such as the one conducted in

Wenzhou should pave the way for larger-scale reform.

7

另一个举措将是改革银行业，使信贷流向中小企业。正如本报在今日的分析文章中所报道的，中

国仍有太多银行贷款流向那些有政治后台的大企业。在温州开展的那种试点项目，应当为更大规模

的改革铺平道路。

This

year

’

s

slowdown

could

be

a

seed

for

future

troubles

or

a

platform

for

greater

successes.

It will be up to Mr Jiabao and his successor to decide which is the case.

8

中国经济今年放缓，可能是未来麻烦的种子 ，也可能是更大成功的跳板。结果如何，要看温家宝

和他

201 2

年

05

月

2 1

日

06:48 AM

2012

年

05

月

21

日

06:48 AM

9

希腊退出欧元区的后果

The irritation of the eurozone with Greece is at extreme levels. After all, 80 per cent

of Greeks say they are in favour of staying in the euro, but then they fail to elect

politicians prepared to implement the agreed programme. This drives creditors crazy.

Increasingly,

the

latter

are

inclined

to

accept

Greek

exit,

even

welcome

it.

But

they

should

be careful what they wish for.

欧元区对希腊的不满已经到达顶点。毕竟，虽然有

80%

的希 腊人声称支持希腊留在欧元区，但他们

在选举时却没有把票投给那些打算贯彻商定计划的 政治人士。债权人快被逼疯了。他们越来越倾向

于接受希腊退出欧元区，甚至乐见希腊退 出。但这种愿望究竟意味着什么，债权人要仔细想明白。

A departure would create severe dangers. The danger of contagion is obvious. The long-run

danger is more subtle. But the eurozone either is an irrevocable currency union or it is

not. If countries in difficulty leave, it is not. It is then an exceptionally rigid

fixed-currency system. That would have two dire results: people would not trust in its

survival and the economic benefits of the single currency would largely disappear.

10

希腊退出欧 元区会带来严重的风险。危机蔓延的风险是显而易见的。更长期的风险则不那么容

易看穿 。不过，欧元区要么是一个不可撤消的货币联盟，要么就不是。如果身处困境的国家退出，

那么欧元区就不是一个不可撤消的货币联盟，而是一个特别严格的固定汇率体系。如此一来将带来

两个可怕的后果：人们会对欧元区的存续失去信心，单一货币的经济好处在很大程度上会消失。

These

perils

are

not

of

concern

to

the

eurozone

alone.

Taken

as

a

whole,

this

is

the

world

’

s

second-largest economy, with the largest banking system. The risk that a bigger eurozone

upheaval

would

cause

a

global

crisis

is

real.

As

frightening

is

the

likelihood

that

eurozone

crises would become permanent features of the world economy.

11

这些 风险威胁的不只是欧元区。作为一个整体，欧元区是世界第二大经济体，而且有着世界最

大的银行体系。如果欧元区出现更大的动荡，将导致一场全球性危机，这是一种现实的风险。同样

可怕的是，欧元区危机有可能对世界经济造成长期困扰。

What, then, are the dangers?

12

那么，到底存在哪些风险？

Start with Greece. It is in a doom loop. Unemployment soared from 7 per cent of the labour

force in May 2008 to 22 per cent in January 2012, while the unemployment rate of people

aged under 25 jumped from 21 per cent to 51 per cent. Worse, despite fiscal austerity and

debt restructuring,

the

International Monetary Fund estimates that gross public

debt will

be

160

per

cent

of

gross

domestic

product

in

2013,

50

percentage

points

higher than

in

2008.

Moreover,

the

IMF

forecasts

that

the

current

account

deficit

–

the

balance

of

trade

on

goods

and services

–

will be more than 7 per cent of GDP this year.

13

2008

< br>年

5

月的

7%

< br>飙升至

2012

年

1

22%

，同期，

25

岁以下人群失业率从

21%

飙升至

51%

。更糟的是，尽管希腊施行了财政紧缩、进行了债务重组，但

国际货币基金组织

(IMF)

仍估计，

该国公共债务总额与国内生产总值

(GDP)

< br>之比在

2013

年将达到

160 %

，

比

2008

年高出

50

个百分点。

IMF

还预测，

今年希腊的经常账户赤字

（商品和服 务贸易余额）

将达到

GDP

的

7%

以上。

Thus, the economy will be uncompetitive and depressed for years, if not decades. Not

surprisingly,

a

dysfunctional

Greek

polity

has

collapsed.

Politicians

who

believe

they

can

obtain better terms are edging closer to power. This, in turn, creates a big potential

dilemma for Athens

’

outside supporters: either give Greece more money to alleviate pain,

or stick to the programme and risk its collapse.

14

因此，

希腊经济缺乏竞争力且萎靡不振的局面将持续数年乃至数十年。

运转失灵的希腊政体已

经崩溃，这并不出人意料。那些认为自己能为希腊争取到更优厚条款的政客距掌权越来越 近。这种

局面反过来又使希腊的外部支持者陷入一种潜在的、严峻的两难境地：要么就给 希腊更多的钱，减

轻它的痛苦；要么就冒希腊发生崩溃的风险，坚守原计划。

So what might a collapse entail?

那么，希腊崩溃可能带来怎样的后果？

As

explained

earlier

in

this

series,

a

cessation

of

external

official

funding

could

trigger

a

disorderly

collapse.

The

government

would

default.

The

European

Central

Bank

would

argue

that Greek banks no longer possess good collateral, which would prevent it from operating

as a lender of last resort. There would be comprehensive bank runs. Athens would impose

exchange controls, introduce a new currency, redenominate domestic contracts and default

on external contracts denominated in euros.

15

如本 系列之前的文章解释过的，如果外部停止提供官方援助资金，希腊可能陷入无序崩溃。希

腊政府将会违约。欧洲央行

(ECB)

会主张，由于希腊银行不 再拥有可靠的抵押品，因此它无法再扮演

最后贷款人的角色。这会引发全面的挤兑。希腊 政府将实施外汇管制、发行新本币、将国内合同的

计价货币改为新本币，并对以欧元计价 的国外合同违约。

This

would

be

chaos.

Unpaid

police

officers

and

soldiers

are

unlikely

to

keep

order.

Looting

and rioting could occur. A coup or civil war would be conceivable. Any new currency would

depreciate and inflation would soar.

16

这将引发动荡。拿不到工资的警员和士 兵不太可能出来维持秩序。希腊可能出现抢劫和骚乱，

政变或内战也并非天方夜谭。新发 行的任何本币都会贬值，通胀将会飙升。

In the medium run, however, order might be restored. Assume Greece managed to bring its

fiscal deficit under control, which is not inconceivable, since the IMF forecasts its

primary

fiscal

deficit

(before

interest)

at

1

per

cent

of

GDP

this

year.

Assume

its

exporters

were able to retain access to the European Union market. Then, as Arvind Subramanian of

the Washington-based Peterson Institute for International Economics argues, Greece might

enjoy a strong (though probably temporary) boom.

17

但从中期来看 ，希腊的秩序也许能得到恢复，只要它满足以下两个条件：将财政赤字降至可控

水平（考 虑到

IMF

预测希腊今年的息前基本财政赤字为

GDP

的

1%

，这一点并非不 可能实现）；出口商

重新打入欧盟

(EU)

市场。

秩序得到恢复后，

如彼得森国际经济研究所