朽的拼音-风选机
国际经济学II --- 国际贸易实证研究
2007年春季
何茵
中国经济研究中心620 62754054
答疑: Mondays
1:30-3:00 & 预约
@
课程简介
这门课旨在介绍如何将实证研究的方法– 计量、调查、投入-
产出分析、模拟、以
及实证一般均衡的方法– 用于估计国际经济学(主要是国际贸易)的理论。
在修这门课之前,你应该已经学过了国际贸易和经济计量学(包括时间序列分
析)。
下面是这门课的阅读材料。其中所包括的问题只是所有国际贸易问题的一部
分,所列文献也只是所有相关
文献的一小部分。列表中有星号的为必读,将在课上
由我或你们进行讲解。没有星号的作学习参考用。
考核方式
1. 文献综述(30%):对某一个具体的国际贸
易问题做文献综述。题目可以是以
下所列的内容,也可以不再其范围内(但需与我讨论后决定)。对于这
一问题
的经典文献,综述应该对其分析方法作较为详尽的阐述和评论。文献综述旨在
为一篇实证
文章的选题和方法选择做准备。
2. Research proposal(40%): 在文献综
述的基础上,进一步确定所要研究的方
向、具体问题、研究方法、以及数据来源。希望它能成为一篇可发
表文章或毕
业论文的一部分。
3.
总结汇报(10%):在课上将自己的research
proposal进行报告,征求大家的建
议,以获得改进。
4. 课堂参与(20%):对
课程进行中要求的必读文献进行报告和讨论,每人报告
的文章数量与选课人数成反比。同时积极参与课堂
讨论。
教科书
Bowen,
Hollander, and Viaene (BHV), Applied International
Trade Analysis (U. of
Michigan Press, 1998).
1
参考文献
I.
Introduction: Measurement and Data
Sources: 1周
*BHV, Chapter 1
*R.
Ballance, et al, “Consistency Tests of Alternative
Measures of Comparative
Advantage,” Rev. of
Economics and Statistics, Feb. 1987, 157-161
*K. Maskus, “Comparing International Trade
Data and Product and National
Characteristics
Data for the Analysis of Trade Models,” in Hooper
and
Richardson, eds., International Economic
Transactions: Issues in Measurement
and
Empirical Research, 1991, 17-56 (hereafter IET)
*R.C. Feenstra, et al,
working paper
9387, December 2002.
Testing Trade
Theories, Part 1: 2-5周
A. Surveys:
*E. Leamer and J. Levinsohn, “International
Trade Theory: the Evidence” in
Grossman and
Rogoff, eds., Handbook of International Economics
Vol. 3, 1341-
1345.
*J. Harrigan,
Laws?
A.V. Deardorff, “Testing Trade
Theories and Predicting Trade Flows,” in Jones
and Kenen, eds., Handbook of International
Economics Vol. 1, 1984, 467-518.
E.
Helpman, “Explaining the Structure of Foreign
Trade: Where do We Stand?”
manuscript, 1998
B. Ricardian Model:
*BHV,
Chapter 3.6
*S. Golub and C. Hsieh,
“Classical Ricardian Theory of Comparative
Advantage
Revisited,” Review of International
Economics, May 2000, 221-234.
C.
Factor-Proportions Model:
II.
2
*BHV, Chapter 4.4 and Chapter 8
E. Leamer, Sources of International
Comparative Advantage, (MIT Press, 1984)
R. Stern and K. Maskus, “Determinants of the
Structure of U.S. Foreign Trade,
1958-76” J.
of International Economics, May 1981, 207-224.
*H. Bowen, et al, “Multicountry,
Multifactor Tests of the Factor Abundance
Theory,” American Economic Review, Dec. 1987,
791-809.
*D. Trefler, “The Case of the
Missing Trade and Other Mysteries” American
Economic Review, December 1995, 1029-1046.
D. Davis, et al, “Using International and
Japanese Regional data to Determine
when the
Factor Abundance Theory of Trade Works” American
Economic Review,
June 1997, 421-446.
*J. Harrigan, “Technology, Factor Supplies,
and International Specialization:
Estimating
the Neoclassical Model,” American Economic Review,
September
1997, 475-494.
*D. Davis
and D. Weinstein, “An Account of Global Factor
Trade,” American
Economic Review, December
2001, 1423-1453.
K. Maskus, “A Test of
the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek Theorem: the Leontief
Commonplace,” Journal of International
Economics, Nov. 1985, 201-212.
J.
Harrigan, “Factor Endowments and the International
Location of Production:
Econometric Evidence
for the OECD, 1970-1985,” J. of International
Economics,
August 1995, 123-141.
Dan
Trefler, “International Factor Price Differences:
Leontief Was Right!” J. of
Political Economy,
December 1993, 961-987.
X. Gabaix, “The
Factor Content of Trade: A Rejection of the
Heckscher-Ohlin-
Leontief Hypothesis,”
manuscript, 1997.
D. Gravity Models:
Feb 12-19
*J. Frankel, E. Stein, and S.
Wei, “Trading Blocs and the Americas: The Natural,
the Unnatural and the Super-Natural,” Journal
of Development Economics 1995,
61-95.
J. Bergstrand, “The Gravity Equation in
International Trade: Some
Microeconomic
Foundations and Empirical Evidence,” Review of
Economics and
Statistics 1985, 474-481.
3
*J.
Bergstrand, “The Generalized Gravity Equation,
Monopolistic Competition,
and the Factor-
Proportions Theory in International Trade,” Rev.
of Economics and
Statistics 1989, 143-153.
*S. Evenett and W. Keller,
Equation,Journal of Political Economy 2002,
281-316.
J. Anderson, “A Theoretical
Foundation for the Gravity Equation,” American
Economic Review 1979, 106-116.
A.
Deardorff, “Determinants of Bilateral Trade: Does
Gravity Work in a
Neoclassical World?” in J.
Frankel, ed., The Regionalization of the World
Economy, 1997.
*J. McCallum,
“National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional
Trade Patterns,”
American Economic Review,
June 1995, 615-623.
C. Evans, “Do National
Border Effects Matter?” manuscript, 1998.
*J.
Anderson and E. van Wincoop,
Border
Puzzle,American Economic Review (forthcoming),
NBER working paper
8079, January 2001.
E. Balistreri and R. Hillberry,
Puzzle,
Comment,
J. Anderson and E. van Wincoop,
paper 8515, October 2001.
J.
Harrigan, “OECD Imports and Trade Barriers in
1983,” Journal of
International Economics,
August 1993, 92-111.
K. Maskus and M.
Penubarti, “How Trade-Related are Intellectual
Property
Rights?J. of International Economics
November 1995, 227-248.
III.
Testing Trade Theories, Part 2: 6-8周
E.
Increasing Returns, Imperfect Competition and
Bilateral Trade Flows:
*E. Helpman,
“Imperfect Competition and International Trade:
Evidence from 14
Countries,” Journal of the
Japanese and International Economies, 1987, 62-81.
*D. Hummels and J. Levinsohn,
“Monopolistic Competition and International
Trade: Reconsidering the Evidence,” Quarterly
J. of Economics 1995, 799-836.
4
*J. Harrigan, “Scale Economies and the
Volume of Trade,” Rev. of Economics
and
Statistics, May 1994, 283-293.
W.
Antweiler and D. Trefler,
Trade,American
Economic Review March 2002, 93-119.
F. Other Theories:
*B. Balassa,
“Intra-Industry Specialization: A Cross-Country
Analysis,”
European Economic Review, 1986,
27-42.
R. Feenstra, “Gains from Trade in
Differentiated Products: Japanese Compact
Trucks,” in Feenstra, EMIT, 119-136.
J. Levinsohn and R. Feenstra, “Identifying the
Competition,” J. of International
Economics,
May 1990, 199-216.
*L. Hunter, “The
Contribution of Nonhomothetic Preferences to
Trade,” J. of
International Economics, May
1991, 345-358.
L. Hunter and J. Markusen,
“Per-Capita Income as a Determinant of Trade, “ in
Feenstra, ed., Empirical Methods for
International Trade (MIT Press), 1988, 119-
136
(book hereafter called EMIT).
J.
Bergstrand, “The Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem, the
Linder Hypothesis, and the
Volume and Pattern
of International Trade,” Economic Journal, Dec.
1990, 1216-
1229.
P. Armington, “A
Theory of Demand for Products Distinguished by
Place of
Production,” IMF Staff Papers, March
1969, 159-177.
*D. Hummels,
ultyhummelsd
R. Feenstra and A. Rose,
Cycles,Review of Economics and Statistics
August 2000, 369-382.
G. Export
Dynamics:
*A. Bernard and J.B. Jensen,
“Exceptional Exporter Performance: Cause, Effect,
or Both?” Journal of International Economics
1999, 1-26.
*M. Roberts and J. Tybout,
“The Decision to Export in Colombia: An Empirical
Model of Entry with Sunk Costs,” American
Economic Review 1997, 545-564.
5
IV.
J. Tybout,
manuscript, March 2001.
International Trade, Growth, and Spillovers:
9-11周
BHV, Chapter 14.
Gene Grossman
and E. Helpman, Innovation and Growth in the
Global Economy
(MIT Press), 1991.
R.
Barro and X. Sala-I-Martin, Economic Growth
(McGraw Hill), 1995.
R. Barro, Economic
Growth in a Cross Section of Countries,” Quarterly
J. of
Economics May 1991, 407-443.
*G. Mankiw, D. Romer and D. Weil, “A
Contribution to the Empirics of
Economic
Growth,” Quarterly J. of Economics, May 1992,
407-437.
*R. Levine and D. Renelt, “A
Sensitivity Analysis of Cross-Country Growth
Regressions,” American Economic Review, Sept.
1992, 942-963.
D. Dollar, “Outward-
Oriented Developing Economies Really Do Grow More
Rapidly: Evidence from 95 LDCs, 1976-1985,”
Economic Development aAnd
Cultural Change,
1992, 523-544.
D. Ben-David, “Trade and
Convergence Among Countries,” J. of International
Economics May 1996, 279-298.
*J.
Frankel and D. Romer, American Economic
Review
June 1999, 379-399.
*D. Coe, E. Helpman
and A. Hoffmaister, “North-South R&D Spillovers,”
Economic Journal 1997, 134-149.
*W.
Keller,
American Economic Review March 2002,
120-142.
*David Greenaway, Wyn Morgan,
and Peter Wright,
“Trade liberalisation
and growth in developing countries,” J. of
Development Economics, Vol. 67, 2002,
pp.
229–244
*Markus Taube, “Spillover-
effects, crowding-in and the contributions of FDI
to
growth in China:A Review of the Literature”
6
V.
Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment:
12-13周
BHV, Chapter 11.
S. Grubaugh,
“Determinants of Direct Foreign Investment,” Rev.
of Economics
and Statistics, Feb. 1987,
149-151.
*S.L. Brainard, “An Empirical
Assessment of the Proximity-Concentration
Tradeoff between Multinational Sales and
Trade,” American Economic Review
1997,
520-544.
*D. Carr, J. Markusen, and K.
Maskus, “Estimating the Knowledge Capital
Model of the Multinational Enterprise,”
American Economic Review June 2001,
693-708.
James R. Markusen and Keith E. Maskus,
the Multinational Firm: A Review of Theory and
Evidence,
paper number 8334
J.
Markusen, “The Boundaries of Multinational
Enterprises and the Theory of
International
Trade,” J. of Economic Perspectives, Spring 1995,
169-189.
K. Head, J. Ries, and D.
Swenson, “Agglomeration Benefits and Location
Choice:
Evidence from Japanese Manufacturing
Investments in the United States,” J. of
International Economics May 1995, 223-248.
*B. Blonigen,
Exports,Journal of
International Economics 2001, 81-104.
B.
Blonigen, Journal of International
Economics
June 2002, 31-50.
*Leonard K. Cheng and
Yum K. Kwan, “What are the determinants of the
location of foreign direct investment? The
Chinese experience,” J. of
International
Economics Aug. 2000 pp.379-400
Empirical Trade Policy Analysis: 14-17周
A. Theoretical Introduction: April 9
BHV, Chapters 5 and 10.
*J. Francois
and K. Reinert, eds., Applied Methods for Trade
Policy Analysis
(Cambridge U. Press), 1997,
chs. 1-3 (hereafter AMTPA).
VI.
7
*D. Brown, “Tariffs, the Terms of
Trade, and National Product Differentiation,” J.
of Policy Modelling, 1987, 503-526.
R. Feenstra, “Estimating the Effects of Trade
Policy,” in Grossman and Rogoff,
eds.,
Handbook of International Economics: Vol. 3
(North-Holland), 1995, 1553-
1596.
R.
Baldwin, “Trade Policies in Developed Countries,”
in R. Jones and P. Kenen,
eds., Handbook of
International Economics: Vol. 1 (North-Holland),
1984, 571-
619 (hereafter HIE1).
Anne
Krueger, “Trade Policies in Developing Countries,”
in HIE1, 519-569.
B. Partial-
Equilibrium Models: April 14
*J.
Francois and K. Hall, “Partial Equilibrium
Modeling,” in AMTPA, ch. 5.
*G. Hufbauer
and K. Elliott, Measuring the Costs of Protection
in the United
States (Institute for
International Economics), 1994, chapters 1-2.
E. Dinopoulos and M. Kreinin, “Effects of the
US-Japan Auto VER on European
Prices and U.S.
Welfare,” Rev. of Economics and Statistics, August
1998, 484-
491.
*B. Aw Roberts,
“Estimating the Effect of Quantitative
Restrictions in
Imperfectly Competitive
Markets: the Footwear Case,” in R. Baldwin, ed.,
Empirical Studies of Commercial Policy (U of
Chicago Press), 1991, 201-213
(hereafter
ESCP).
A. Dixit, “Optimal Trade and
Industrial Policies for the U.S. Automobile
Industry,” in Feenstra, ed., EMIT, 141-165.
*D. Rodrik, “Imperfect Competition, Scale
Economies, and Trade Policy in
Developing
Countries,” in R. Baldwin, ed., Trade Policy
Issues and Empirical
Analysis (U of Chicago
Press), 1988, 109-137 (hereafter TPIEA).
P. Krugman and A. Smith, eds., Empirical
Studies of Strategic Trade Policy (U of
Chicago Press), 1991.
Computational General Equilibrium Models of
Trade Liberalization: April 16-24
C.
8
*K. Reinert and D. Roland-Holst,
“Social Accounting Matrices,” in AMTPA, ch.
4.
*S. Devarajan, et al, “Simple General
Equilibrium Modeling,” in AMTPA, ch. 6.
J. Shoven and J. Whalley, Applying General
Equilibrium (Cambridge Univ.
Press), chapters
4-5.
R. Harris, “Applied General
Equilibrium Analysis of Small Open Economies with
Scale Economies and Imperfect Competition,”
American Economic Review 1984,
1016-1032.
J. de Melo and D. Tarr, A General Equilibrium
Analysis of US Foreign Trade
Policy (MIT
Press), 1992.
*D. Brown and R. Stern,
“US-Canada Bilateral Tariff Elimination: The Role
of
Product Differentiation and Market
Structure,” in R. Feenstra, ed., Trade Policies
for International Competitiveness (U of
Chicago Press), 1989, 217-245.
*T.
Hertel, E. Ianchovichina, and B. McDonald, “Multi-
Region General
Equilibrium Modeling,” in
AMTPA, ch. 9.
*D. Konan and K. Maskus,
“Joint Trade Liberalization and Tax Reform in a
Small Open Economy: The Case of Egypt,”
Journal of Development Economics
April 2000,
365-392.
*T. Rutherford and D. Tarr,
a Small Open Economy: A Quantitative
Assessment,Journal of International
Economics
March 2002, 247-272.
C. Shiells, A.
Deardorff, and R. Stern, “Estimates of the
Elasticities of
Substitution between Imports
and Home Goods for the United States,”
Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 1986, 497-519.
T.N. Srinivasan and J. Whalley, eds.,
General Equilibrium Trade Policy
Modelling
(MIT Press), 1986.
J. de Melo,
“Computable General Equilibrium Models for Trade
Policy Analysis
in Developing Countries: A
Survey,” J. of Policy Modelling, 1988, 469-503.
J. Francois and K. Reinert, AMTPA,
balance of book.
9
VII. Trade and Exchange Rates: 18周
*BHV, chapter 13
*M. Knetter,
“International Comparisons of Pricing-to-Market
Behavior,”
American Economic Review 1992,
473-486.
*R. Feenstra, “Symmetric Pass-
Through of Tariffs and Exchange Rates under
Imperfect Competition: An Empirical Test,”
Journal of International Economics
1989,
25-45.
VIII. Other Topics
A. Endogenous Trade Policy
A.
Bohara and W. Kaempfer, “A Test of Tariff
Endogeneity in the United States,”
American
Economic Review, Sept. 1991, 952-960.
D.
Trefler, “Trade Liberalization and the Theory of
Endogenous Protection: An
Econometric Study of
U.S. Import Policy,” J. of Political Economy 1993,
138-160.
T. Prusa, “Why Are So Many
Antidumping Petitions Withdrawn?” J. of
International Economics 1992, 1-20.
K. Gawande and U. Bandyopadhyay,
Grossman-
Helpman Theory of Endogenous Protection,Review of
Economics
and Statistics February 2000,
139-152.
K. Gawande, “Testing Theories of
Endogenous Protection: Robust Evidence from
U.S. Nontariff Barrier Data,” in K. Maskus, et
al, eds., Quiet Pioneering: Robert
M. Stern
and His International Economic Legacy, (U of
Michigan Press), 1997,
37-70.
B.
Trade and Labor Markets
R. Lawrence and
M. Slaughter, “International Trade and American
Wages in the
1980s: Giant Sucking Sound or
Small Hiccup?” Brookings Papers on Economic
Activity: Microeconomics 2 1993, 161-226.
E. Leamer, “A Trade Economist’s View of U.S.
Wages and Globalization,”
manuscript, 1995.
10
Ana Revenga, “Exporting
Jobs? The Impact of Import Competition on
Employment and Wages in U.S. Manufacturing,”
Quarterly J. of Economics, Feb.
1992, 255-282.
Adrian Wood, “How Trade Hurt Unskilled
Workers,” J. of Economic
Perspectives, Summer
1995, 57-80.
R. Feenstra and G. Hanson,
“The Exact Measurement of Productivity,
Outsourcing and Its Impact on Wages: Estimates
for the U.S., 1972-1990,”
manuscript, 1996.
B. Aitken, A. Harrison, and R. Lipsey,
“Wages and Foreign Ownership: A
Comparative
Study of Mexico, Venezuela, and the United
States,” J. of
International Economics, May
1996, 345-372.
G. Hanson and M.
Slaughter,
Evidence from US States,Journal of
International Economics June 2002, 3-30.
C. Trade, Environment, and Other Issues
W. Antweiler, B. Copeland, and M.S. Taylor,
“Is Free Trade Good for the
Environment?”
American Economic Review September 2001, 877-908.
S-J Wei, Review of
Economics and
Statistics February 2000, 1-11.
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (2000), International
Trade and
Core Labor Standards, Paris: OECD.
11